Michele Tafoya

Minnesota surpassed its previous midterm early-voting record, with nearly 729,000 residents casting ballots in person or by mail ahead of Tuesday's election and more than 938,000 absentee requests filed overall. Secretary of State Steve Simon forecast historically high turnout and said his office has prepared for the unprecedented possibility of federal interference, after President Trump suggested without evidence that the Minnesota Senate race—where Republican Michele Tafoya trails DFL Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in polling—could only be lost through fraud. The Justice Department plans to send election monitors nationwide. State officials, including Attorney General Keith Ellison, say Minnesota's elections are secure and monitors will see a fair, well-run process.

A new Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll shows U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar with a commanding lead over Republican Lisa Demuth in the race for Minnesota governor, three weeks before Election Day. Half of likely voters said they would back Klobuchar, who is seeking to become the state's first female governor, compared with 41% for Demuth, the speaker of the Minnesota House.

Klobuchar led in the Twin Cities and suburbs and remained competitive in parts of greater Minnesota, trailing Demuth by only five points in the increasingly conservative north while Demuth held a stronger edge in the south. Demuth has sought to tie Klobuchar to a fraud scandal in state government under DFL Gov. Tim Walz, and fraud ranked as the second-most important issue to voters polled. However, slightly more respondents trusted Klobuchar than Demuth to address it, suggesting the scandal has not given Republicans a clear advantage as they try to win the governor's office for the first time since 2006.

Public safety has also emerged as a key campaign theme, with both candidates rolling out crime plans. The Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association, which has previously backed both Demuth and Klobuchar, has declined to endorse in the governor's race even as it formally backed GOP Senate nominee Michele Tafoya, underscoring the issue's political weight without clearly tipping the scales in either direction.

A new Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll shows DFL Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan with a modest lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in the race for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, one of the few Republicans hope to flip this cycle despite a difficult national environment for the GOP.

Flanagan's edge is driven largely by lopsided margins in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, reflecting broader dissatisfaction among Minnesota voters with President Donald Trump. Some voters, including independents critical of both parties, cited opposition to Trump's policies, including the administration's actions regarding Iran, as a reason for backing Flanagan.

Despite the deficit, the poll results support Tafoya's contention that she is running competitively in a traditionally Democratic-leaning state, bucking broader national trends that favor Democrats this cycle. Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002, and Democrats appear more enthusiastic heading into the election even as national Republicans focus resources on defending seats in more conservative states.

Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.

Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.