Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District: Who Wins the House Seat

A November 3 legislative race in Minnesota's largest House district, 3A, is drawing attention as a test of rural populist politics amid worsening economic conditions. Republican incumbent Rep. Dave Skraba, who narrowly won the seat in 2022 before a comfortable 2024 victory, faces DFL challenger Kania, who has been outworking the campaign trail despite trailing badly in fundraising. Kania is betting that door-knocking and a focus on mining, health care, and forest management can recreate the kind of cross-coalition appeal once shown by Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party figures like Gov. Rudy Perpich and Sen. Paul Wellstone, who dominated the region decades earlier. The race remains a long shot for Democrats but reflects broader questions about rural voters' patience with economic decline.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar is seeking to become Minnesota's next governor, casting herself as a moderate Democrat who can repair the state's reputation and address pandemic-era welfare fraud scandals that Republicans have used to paint Minnesota as a cautionary tale of liberal governance. Klobuchar, who built a national profile during her 2020 presidential run and has served in the U.S. Senate, is widely seen as the favorite in the race.

Her campaign comes as Minnesota Democrats face scrutiny over fraud tied to pandemic relief programs, along with lingering political fallout from the 2020 murder of George Floyd and subsequent unrest in Minneapolis and St. Paul. Klobuchar is positioning herself against more progressive currents within her party, emphasizing pragmatic governance over ideological approaches associated with democratic socialism. The race is being watched as a test of whether centrist Democrats can reclaim ground in a state Republicans have targeted as emblematic of government mismanagement, with implications for broader 2026 gubernatorial and midterm dynamics.

Minnesota surpassed its previous midterm early-voting record, with nearly 729,000 residents casting ballots in person or by mail ahead of Tuesday's election and more than 938,000 absentee requests filed overall. Secretary of State Steve Simon forecast historically high turnout and said his office has prepared for the unprecedented possibility of federal interference, after President Trump suggested without evidence that the Minnesota Senate race—where Republican Michele Tafoya trails DFL Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan in polling—could only be lost through fraud. The Justice Department plans to send election monitors nationwide. State officials, including Attorney General Keith Ellison, say Minnesota's elections are secure and monitors will see a fair, well-run process.

A new Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll shows DFL Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan with a modest lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in the race for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat, one of the few Republicans hope to flip this cycle despite a difficult national environment for the GOP.

Flanagan's edge is driven largely by lopsided margins in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, reflecting broader dissatisfaction among Minnesota voters with President Donald Trump. Some voters, including independents critical of both parties, cited opposition to Trump's policies, including the administration's actions regarding Iran, as a reason for backing Flanagan.

Despite the deficit, the poll results support Tafoya's contention that she is running competitively in a traditionally Democratic-leaning state, bucking broader national trends that favor Democrats this cycle. Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002, and Democrats appear more enthusiastic heading into the election even as national Republicans focus resources on defending seats in more conservative states.

Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Minnesota, shared the meaning of her Ojibwe name in a social media post, framing it as a statement of political identity. Flanagan, a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, said her name, "Gizhiiwewidamookwe," translates to "Speaks in a Loud and Clear Voice Woman," adding that she intends to be "Minnesota's voice in the U.S. Senate" rather than President Donald Trump's.

Flanagan, who has twice been elected as Gov. Tim Walz's running mate, is facing Republican candidate Michele Tafoya in the race. The post drew mixed reactions online, with some critics mocking the translation and others accusing her of political posturing. The exchange follows earlier scrutiny of Flanagan after video surfaced of her wearing a hijab while addressing Somali migrant constituents, amid broader controversy in Minnesota over fraud involving welfare funds tied to Somali community programs.

Minnesota Republican gubernatorial nominee Lisa Demuth is framing fraud and government waste as the key to funding her affordability agenda, which includes a $99 cap on vehicle tabs, property tax relief, and lower income tax rates. Asked how she would pay for these cuts, Demuth pointed to rooting out fraud, trimming government waste, and directing new agency commissioners to find $1 billion in savings rather than raising new revenue.

The approach reflects a broader strategy among Minnesota Republicans this fall: tying national frustration over rising costs to claims that state Democrats let spending go unchecked. Demuth applied similar logic to the prospect of federal Medicaid cuts, saying the state should first verify recipient eligibility before deciding whether to replace lost funds or reduce benefits. Critics note that recovered fraud dollars are difficult to convert into sustained tax relief, since permanent cuts require ongoing savings. Demuth dismissed concerns that fraud-driven savings might fall short, arguing a more business-friendly climate would grow the state's tax base over time. The debate adds to a competitive Minnesota election cycle that also includes a closely watched attorney general race.

Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.

Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.

Minnesota's political landscape has shifted repeatedly since the year began, and more change could follow Election Day. Gov. Tim Walz exited his reelection bid early, prompting Sen. Amy Klobuchar to pivot toward a run for governor. Michele Tafoya and later Mike Lindell and Kendall Qualls jockeyed for the Republican Senate nomination, but primary voters chose Lisa Demuth. On the DFL side, Peggy Flanagan beat Angie Craig despite Craig's fundraising lead. Chris Madel dropped his gubernatorial bid over the party's immigration stance. Observers compare the turmoil to 2018's reshuffling after Mark Dayton's exit, when multiple officials moved up the ladder in sequence.

An opinion piece in the Star Tribune has sharpened a political clash in Minnesota ahead of upcoming elections, centered on how state leaders address both local fraud scandals and their connections to President Donald Trump. DFL Attorney General Keith Ellison, running for reelection, has directly tied his Republican opponent, corporate lawyer Ron Schutz, to Trump in campaign messaging, criticizing Schutz for saying he would seek White House support. Trump himself recently weighed in on Minnesota politics, endorsing Republican U.S. Senate candidate Michele Tafoya.

The commentary argues that while fraud in Minnesota's social services programs is a legitimate concern — one acknowledged by DFL figures including Senator Amy Klobuchar and Governor Tim Walz — Republicans face scrutiny for condemning state-level fraud while aligning with Trump. The piece frames this contrast as a central theme likely to shape Minnesota's competitive races, including the attorney general and Senate contests, as candidates position themselves on fraud accountability and their relationships with the president.

DFL incumbent Steve Simon, seeking a fourth term as Minnesota secretary of state, debated Republican challenger Tad Jude at Minnesota Public Radio's St. Paul studio. Jude called for tighter voter requirements, including provisional ballots for same-day registrants, saying "an illegal vote is a stolen vote." Simon cited studies ranking Minnesota first nationally on election performance and showing only three illegal votes among 13.4 million cast from 2015 to 2024. Simon pressed Jude on Trump's unsubstantiated claims of winning Minnesota; Jude acknowledged certified results but stopped short of refuting Trump. Both addressed a DOJ lawsuit over Alaska's Senate certification and debated the state's redesigned flag. Election Day is November 3.