Minnesota’s 4th District House Race: Who Will Win

Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.

Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.

A new Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll shows U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar with a commanding lead over Republican Lisa Demuth in the race for Minnesota governor, three weeks before Election Day. Half of likely voters said they would back Klobuchar, who is seeking to become the state's first female governor, compared with 41% for Demuth, the speaker of the Minnesota House.

Klobuchar led in the Twin Cities and suburbs and remained competitive in parts of greater Minnesota, trailing Demuth by only five points in the increasingly conservative north while Demuth held a stronger edge in the south. Demuth has sought to tie Klobuchar to a fraud scandal in state government under DFL Gov. Tim Walz, and fraud ranked as the second-most important issue to voters polled. However, slightly more respondents trusted Klobuchar than Demuth to address it, suggesting the scandal has not given Republicans a clear advantage as they try to win the governor's office for the first time since 2006.

Public safety has also emerged as a key campaign theme, with both candidates rolling out crime plans. The Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association, which has previously backed both Demuth and Klobuchar, has declined to endorse in the governor's race even as it formally backed GOP Senate nominee Michele Tafoya, underscoring the issue's political weight without clearly tipping the scales in either direction.

Overtime costs for St. Paul Mayor Kaohly Her's police security detail reached nearly $98,000 through July, already exceeding predecessor Melvin Carter's full-year 2025 total of about $92,761, according to police department data released to the Pioneer Press. Her's office attributes the spike to Operation Metro Surge, a demanding transition into office, and heightened security concerns following the assassination of Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, plus two documented death threats against Her. The increase comes as St. Paul faces a projected $26 million budget gap, prompting Her to propose forgoing part of her salary, raising ambulance fees, cutting library and recreation services, and shrinking the police department's authorized officer count.

Tension has emerged between Her and Police Chief Axel Henry, who filed a formal complaint against her in April now under independent investigation, including allegations of inappropriate conduct toward city employees. The two have also clashed over security staffing, particularly Henry's insistence on two-officer details for out-of-state travel, which Her's office called an unwise use of funds; Her has since declined security on subsequent trips outside Minnesota.

The St. Paul school board voted unanimously to postpone a decision on cutting roughly 18 full-time English as a second language teaching positions, following a five-hour meeting marked by union rallies and public comment that stretched past 10:30 p.m. The proposed cuts stem from a drop of 542 English learner students versus January projections, which officials tied to Operation Metro Surge, a federal immigration enforcement operation in the Twin Cities. The shortfall threatens nearly $5 million in state per-pupil funding. Union leaders say the cuts would hit at least two dozen schools and call the plan rushed; Superintendent Stacie Stanley denies it was made in secret. The board delayed the vote until the week of October 26 to explore alternatives.

Twin Cities faith communities remain entangled in legal disputes stemming from last winter's federal immigration surge in Minnesota. In one case, University Baptist Church in Minneapolis and allied Baptist groups are asking a federal judge to find that Homeland Security violated a February injunction protecting houses of worship, after court documents revealed undercover agents surveilled the church's gym multiple times while investigating a martial arts instructor accused of training protesters to obstruct arrests. The government maintains the operation targeted violence against federal officers, not immigration enforcement.

In a separate case, more than three dozen people, including former CNN journalist Don Lemon, face federal civil rights charges for disrupting a Sunday service at St. Paul's Cities Church, where a pastor also worked for ICE's local field office. Protesters chanted over the killing of Renee Good, shot by an ICE officer in January. Defendants have filed motions citing selective prosecution, with hearings set for late October. Faith leaders across the region describe lingering fear, heightened security, and exhaustion months after the crackdown.

A legal and political standoff between St. Paul Mayor Kaohly Her and Police Chief Axel Henry has escalated into a lawsuit, a city-commissioned investigation, and mounting taxpayer costs. Henry sued Her on Sept. 23, alleging sexual harassment and violations of whistleblower and data-practices laws. A 76-page report by outside firm Resolute Law, released in redacted form Oct. 1, found the mayor acted inappropriately in several instances—including sharing sexualized memes and altered photos, and discussing her body with two female employees—but did not substantiate sexual harassment or retaliation claims by either side.

The city has already spent over $43,000 on the investigation and hired an employment law firm at $500 an hour, with costs expected to grow. Legal experts anticipate a settlement that would likely see Henry leave city employment. Removing Henry as chief or recalling Her before 2028 would both require difficult legal thresholds under the city charter, making a negotiated resolution the most probable outcome.

DFL incumbent Steve Simon, seeking a fourth term as Minnesota secretary of state, debated Republican challenger Tad Jude at Minnesota Public Radio's St. Paul studio. Jude called for tighter voter requirements, including provisional ballots for same-day registrants, saying "an illegal vote is a stolen vote." Simon cited studies ranking Minnesota first nationally on election performance and showing only three illegal votes among 13.4 million cast from 2015 to 2024. Simon pressed Jude on Trump's unsubstantiated claims of winning Minnesota; Jude acknowledged certified results but stopped short of refuting Trump. Both addressed a DOJ lawsuit over Alaska's Senate certification and debated the state's redesigned flag. Election Day is November 3.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar is seeking to become Minnesota's next governor, casting herself as a moderate Democrat who can repair the state's reputation and address pandemic-era welfare fraud scandals that Republicans have used to paint Minnesota as a cautionary tale of liberal governance. Klobuchar, who built a national profile during her 2020 presidential run and has served in the U.S. Senate, is widely seen as the favorite in the race.

Her campaign comes as Minnesota Democrats face scrutiny over fraud tied to pandemic relief programs, along with lingering political fallout from the 2020 murder of George Floyd and subsequent unrest in Minneapolis and St. Paul. Klobuchar is positioning herself against more progressive currents within her party, emphasizing pragmatic governance over ideological approaches associated with democratic socialism. The race is being watched as a test of whether centrist Democrats can reclaim ground in a state Republicans have targeted as emblematic of government mismanagement, with implications for broader 2026 gubernatorial and midterm dynamics.

The St. Paul school district and its teachers' union have proposed early retirements and leaving vacancies unfilled instead of cutting up to 18 English learner teacher positions to close a budget gap. The school board, which postponed a vote on the original cuts after backlash and a lengthy meeting, is set to consider the revised plan Friday. The new proposal would leave more than 10 vacant positions open and offer early retirement to seven to 12 English learner teachers, saving an estimated $2.3 million, with total budget adjustments topping $5.3 million.

The district says it is losing more than 500 English learner students this year, partly tied to a federal immigration enforcement operation in the Twin Cities, worsening an already $51.5 million deficit.

Minneapolis and St. Paul are taking different approaches to autonomous vehicle policy as companies like Waymo eye expansion into the Twin Cities. On Oct. 1, the Minneapolis City Council passed an ordinance 7-6 requiring a licensed human safety monitor inside driverless rideshare vehicles, with immediate access to steering, braking and acceleration, plus minimum wage pay for the monitor and a city licensing requirement for AV companies. The measure would make Minneapolis the first U.S. city with such a rule. Waymo called it a "de-facto ban," and Mayor Jacob Frey vetoed it, arguing thoughtful safety regulation shouldn't function as a backdoor ban. Council member Robin Wonsley said she would pursue a worker-focused resolution if the veto override fails.

St. Paul took a more cautious route, with its City Council voting Oct. 14 to study how driverless cars could affect public transit, rideshare drivers, people with disabilities, public safety and emergency response before crafting any rules. No timeline exists for the study, for Waymo's potential Minneapolis launch, or for whether Minneapolis has the nine votes needed to override Frey's veto.