North Carolina’s 1st District House Race
North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, a historically competitive seat spanning the state’s northeastern counties, is up for grabs in the 2026 midterms. The district has swung between parties in recent redistricting cycles, making it one of the few genuinely contested House races in the state. Voters will choose a representative in a contest both parties consider winnable.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of swing districts like NC-01. The outcome here could influence the chamber’s balance of power and shape legislative priorities for the next two years. Local turnout patterns and candidate strength will offer an early read on broader national political trends.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is simple: which party’s nominee wins the seat. Separate contracts isolate individual candidates as well as the broader partisan outcome, letting traders express views on primary results and general-election dynamics separately. This structure captures both the uncertainty of who emerges from each party’s field and the district’s underlying partisan lean.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
Redistricting -
Electoral district -
North Carolina -
Democrat Party (epithet) -
Rural area -
Swing (seat) -
North Carolina's 1st congressional district -
Don Davis (North Carolina politician)
Total Volume
$10.8m
Kalshi $583.1k · Polymarket $10.2m
Leading Market
Don Davis
Kalshi 86%
Don Davis Volume
$349.4k
Kalshi $349.4k
Don Davis 24h Change
+1.00%
Kalshi +1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don DavisDemocratic Party | 86.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Don Davis on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Donald DavisDemocratic Party | — | — | — | 84.0¢ | 5% | , trade Donald Davis on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Laurie BuckhoutRepublican Party | 16.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Laurie Buckhout on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 16.0¢ | 5% | , trade Laurie Buckhout on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Don DavisDemocratic Party | $349,418.98 | No market | |
| Donald DavisDemocratic Party | $5,302,750.29 | No market | |
| Laurie BuckhoutRepublican Party | $5,124,247.21 |