Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District House race winner
Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District will hold an election in 2026 to determine who represents the district in the U.S. House of Representatives. Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are tracking which party and which candidate will ultimately win the seat.
Why it matters
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives often hinges on a relatively small number of competitive districts. Minnesota’s 6th District is one of the seats being closely watched as part of the broader battle for House control in the 2026 midterm elections. The outcome here contributes to the overall balance of power between the Democratic and Republican parties in Congress.
How the markets frame it
Kalshi’s market, titled “MN-06 House winner?”, offers separate contracts on whether the Democratic or Republican party will win the seat. Polymarket’s corresponding market, “MN-06 House Election Winner,” breaks the question down further into individual candidate outcomes, allowing traders to bet on named candidates as well as broader party outcomes, including a catch-all option for any other party winning the seat.
Together, these markets give traders a way to express views on both the partisan outcome and the specific candidate who will ultimately prevail in this Minnesota House race.
What to watch
- Candidate filings and primary results in the district ahead of the general election
- Fundraising and campaign momentum for the leading Democratic and Republican contenders
- National midterm dynamics that could influence turnout and voter sentiment in Minnesota
Related terms
Total Volume
$99.9k
Kalshi $29.4k · Polymarket $70.5k
Leading Market
Tom Emmer
Kalshi 94% · Polymarket 95%
Tom Emmer Volume
$22.2k
Kalshi $11k · Polymarket $11.2k
Tom Emmer 24h Change
+0.20%
Kalshi +0.20% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom EmmerRepublican Party | 94.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Tom Emmer on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 95.0¢ | 5% | , trade Tom Emmer on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Doug ChinDemocratic Party | 6.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Doug Chin on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 5.0¢ | 5% | , trade Doug Chin on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom EmmerRepublican Party | $22,176.19 | ||
| Doug ChinDemocratic Party | $77,718.35 |