Minnesota Governor Race 2026: Who Will Win

Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.

Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.

Minnesota's 2026 governor race is sharpening into a referendum on laws Democrats passed during their 2023-2024 trifecta. Republican House leader Lisa Demuth wants to scale back paid family and medical leave's 20-week maximum, reinstate an income cap on universal school meals, drop automatic gas tax and car-tab increases, and fully eliminate state income tax on Social Security. She hasn't committed to repealing the state's abortion-rights law, calling it "settled law." Democrat Amy Klobuchar says she's open to "improvements" to leave and school-meal funding but supports current benefit levels, opposes tax hikes, and strongly backs the abortion law. Any actual changes would require legislative majorities, also on the ballot this November.

Minnesota Republican gubernatorial nominee Lisa Demuth is framing fraud and government waste as the key to funding her affordability agenda, which includes a $99 cap on vehicle tabs, property tax relief, and lower income tax rates. Asked how she would pay for these cuts, Demuth pointed to rooting out fraud, trimming government waste, and directing new agency commissioners to find $1 billion in savings rather than raising new revenue.

The approach reflects a broader strategy among Minnesota Republicans this fall: tying national frustration over rising costs to claims that state Democrats let spending go unchecked. Demuth applied similar logic to the prospect of federal Medicaid cuts, saying the state should first verify recipient eligibility before deciding whether to replace lost funds or reduce benefits. Critics note that recovered fraud dollars are difficult to convert into sustained tax relief, since permanent cuts require ongoing savings. Demuth dismissed concerns that fraud-driven savings might fall short, arguing a more business-friendly climate would grow the state's tax base over time. The debate adds to a competitive Minnesota election cycle that also includes a closely watched attorney general race.

A new Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll shows U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar with a commanding lead over Republican Lisa Demuth in the race for Minnesota governor, three weeks before Election Day. Half of likely voters said they would back Klobuchar, who is seeking to become the state's first female governor, compared with 41% for Demuth, the speaker of the Minnesota House.

Klobuchar led in the Twin Cities and suburbs and remained competitive in parts of greater Minnesota, trailing Demuth by only five points in the increasingly conservative north while Demuth held a stronger edge in the south. Demuth has sought to tie Klobuchar to a fraud scandal in state government under DFL Gov. Tim Walz, and fraud ranked as the second-most important issue to voters polled. However, slightly more respondents trusted Klobuchar than Demuth to address it, suggesting the scandal has not given Republicans a clear advantage as they try to win the governor's office for the first time since 2006.

Public safety has also emerged as a key campaign theme, with both candidates rolling out crime plans. The Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association, which has previously backed both Demuth and Klobuchar, has declined to endorse in the governor's race even as it formally backed GOP Senate nominee Michele Tafoya, underscoring the issue's political weight without clearly tipping the scales in either direction.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar is seeking to become Minnesota's next governor, casting herself as a moderate Democrat who can repair the state's reputation and address pandemic-era welfare fraud scandals that Republicans have used to paint Minnesota as a cautionary tale of liberal governance. Klobuchar, who built a national profile during her 2020 presidential run and has served in the U.S. Senate, is widely seen as the favorite in the race.

Her campaign comes as Minnesota Democrats face scrutiny over fraud tied to pandemic relief programs, along with lingering political fallout from the 2020 murder of George Floyd and subsequent unrest in Minneapolis and St. Paul. Klobuchar is positioning herself against more progressive currents within her party, emphasizing pragmatic governance over ideological approaches associated with democratic socialism. The race is being watched as a test of whether centrist Democrats can reclaim ground in a state Republicans have targeted as emblematic of government mismanagement, with implications for broader 2026 gubernatorial and midterm dynamics.

Minnesota's political landscape has shifted repeatedly since the year began, and more change could follow Election Day. Gov. Tim Walz exited his reelection bid early, prompting Sen. Amy Klobuchar to pivot toward a run for governor. Michele Tafoya and later Mike Lindell and Kendall Qualls jockeyed for the Republican Senate nomination, but primary voters chose Lisa Demuth. On the DFL side, Peggy Flanagan beat Angie Craig despite Craig's fundraising lead. Chris Madel dropped his gubernatorial bid over the party's immigration stance. Observers compare the turmoil to 2018's reshuffling after Mark Dayton's exit, when multiple officials moved up the ladder in sequence.

Election offices in more than two dozen states, plus numerous members of Congress, have received suspicious letters containing a white powdery substance in the days before the midterms. Tennessee, Ohio, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Oregon officials reported intercepted or opened packages, some prompting evacuations and hazmat responses; preliminary tests have found no hazardous material. Affected lawmakers include Sens. Alex Padilla, Ted Cruz, Amy Klobuchar and Chris Murphy, and several California representatives. The FBI, U.S. Postal Inspection Service and U.S. Capitol Police are investigating. Election official associations condemned the threats. Similar mailings targeted officials ahead of the 2024 election and in 2023, when some contained traces of fentanyl.

A November 3 legislative race in Minnesota's largest House district, 3A, is drawing attention as a test of rural populist politics amid worsening economic conditions. Republican incumbent Rep. Dave Skraba, who narrowly won the seat in 2022 before a comfortable 2024 victory, faces DFL challenger Kania, who has been outworking the campaign trail despite trailing badly in fundraising. Kania is betting that door-knocking and a focus on mining, health care, and forest management can recreate the kind of cross-coalition appeal once shown by Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party figures like Gov. Rudy Perpich and Sen. Paul Wellstone, who dominated the region decades earlier. The race remains a long shot for Democrats but reflects broader questions about rural voters' patience with economic decline.

A new bipartisan legislative committee tasked with fighting fraud in Minnesota held its first meeting at the State Capitol, marking a step toward establishing the state's Office of Inspector General. Lawmakers called it the most significant anti-fraud measure in state history, with the future office expected to house dozens of full-time investigators empowered to examine state agencies at every level and refer findings to a new in-house law enforcement division for civil or criminal action.

The committee, comprising eight members from the House and Senate, selected a chair and vice chair before turning to its next task: recruiting a new inspector general with a background in auditing, law enforcement, or investigations. The panel aims to deliver a recommendation to the governor by January 1, 2027, after which the governor's chosen candidate would require Senate approval. Lawmakers from both parties described the office as having subpoena power and real investigative authority to address misuse of public funds.

A Minneapolis teacher, Quentin Williams, has filed a federal tort claim against the U.S. government after immigration agents detained him outside Roosevelt High School on Jan. 7, hours after an ICE agent fatally shot Renee Good elsewhere. Surveillance video shows Williams tackled by an agent, who put a knee to his back, before he was handcuffed and taken to the Whipple Federal Building. He was held for roughly four hours and released without charges; agents reportedly confiscated his belongings, including a necklace containing his mother's ashes.

Weeks later, Attorney General Pam Bondi and other government accounts publicized Williams' mugshot, labeling him a "violent, anti-ICE anarchist." Attorneys from the MacArthur Justice Center filed the claim Tuesday, a precursor to a possible civil lawsuit, arguing the government exploited Williams' image and identity before abandoning the narrative. They are seeking accountability and a correction of the record. The Departments of Justice and Homeland Security have not responded to requests for comment. The incident adds to scrutiny of ICE conduct during enforcement operations involving former Border Patrol Commander Greg Bovino.