Ty Masterson

Iowa Democrats are hoping the 2026 midterms mark a turning point after nearly a decade of Republican dominance in the statehouse and congressional delegation. Political scientists note Iowa has swung both ways in recent cycles, and Cook Political Report now rates the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts as leaning Democratic, with the 2nd District a toss-up. The governor's race between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn also leans Democratic. Analysts cite frustration with GOP control of state and federal government, a large pool of independent voters, bipartisan messaging from candidates like Sand and Senate hopeful Josh Turek, and softer approval ratings for President Trump as factors fueling Democratic optimism ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

Kansas has split its governorships evenly since 1960, with seven Republicans and seven Democrats holding the office despite the state's strong Republican lean in federal races. No party has won three consecutive gubernatorial elections since four-year terms began in 1974, a streak now being tested by Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher's challenge to Republican state Sen. Ty Masterson, as term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, departs after two wins.

Several past races were decided by narrow margins, including a sub-4,000-vote finish in 1974 and Kelly's roughly 22,000-vote win in 2022. Since 1990, no sitting Kansas governor has lost a reelection bid, underscoring the historical stakes of this year's contest.