Ohio Senate winner?

Early voting began Tuesday in Ohio, a state hosting some of the most competitive contests in the November 3 midterms, including a Senate special election and two House races rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. The results could help decide which party controls Congress for the next two years.

Republican Senator Jon Husted faces a challenge from Democrat Sherrod Brown, who previously held the seat for 18 years before losing it to Bernie Moreno. In the House, Republican Representative Max Miller is fighting for a third term in the 7th district amid domestic violence allegations he denies, challenged by Democrat Brian Poindexter. In the 9th district, longtime Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur faces a rematch against Republican Derek Merrin. Voters are weighing inflation, rising living costs and the ongoing US war with Iran against President Trump's record-low approval rating, with both parties watching Ohio for signs of whether disaffected voters are shifting allegiance ahead of the broader fight for House and Senate majorities.

Republicans have spent heavily — about $19 million through mid-October — on ads in competitive Ohio races promoting the tax law dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill," the largest such ad push of any state this cycle. The pitch aims to boost vulnerable GOP candidates, including Sen. Jon Husted, who faces Democrat Sherrod Brown in a tight Senate race, by highlighting tax cuts on tips, overtime, and Social Security. But polling shows the message struggling against voter frustration over tariffs, inflation, and gas prices; a New York Times/Siena poll found 79 percent of likely Ohio voters disapprove of President Trump's handling of gas prices, complicating Republicans' efforts in a once reliably red state.

Ohio's Senate race between Republican incumbent Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown has become a bellwether contest as both parties battle for control of the chamber. Husted, appointed to fill JD Vance's seat, faces backlash over his past promotion of tax breaks that brought more than 200 data centers to Ohio, including one under construction in Pike County expected to be the world's largest. Ohio's projected sales tax giveaway to data centers ballooned from an estimated $136 million to more than $1.5 billion, fueling voter anger over electricity costs, water use, and air quality. Husted notes the incentives originated in 2011 and expanded under Gov. John Kasich, before his time in statewide economic development roles, and he has since backed pausing the tax breaks and co-sponsored legislation making data center operators help cover grid costs.

Brown, who lost his Senate seat in 2024, is courting working-class voters in areas like the Mahoning Valley that have drifted toward Trump. Both candidates now say data centers should cover their own power and infrastructure costs and that local communities should have final say on new projects, though Brown wants residents given more information before approvals, while neither favors halting data center growth outright. Both campaigns have combined for well over $150 million in ad spending, with outside groups like Elon Musk's America PAC adding pressure to a race seen as pivotal to Senate control.

Barack Obama rallied Democrats in Cleveland, campaigning with Senate candidate Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton days before the midterms. He condemned Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy's ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, which attacks her over childhood abuse and homelessness, calling it a sign of declining political decency. Trump and JD Vance have defended the ad despite criticism from Ohio Republicans including Gov. Mike DeWine. Obama also faulted Trump for rising costs and White House renovations. He later campaigned in Detroit for Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, with Michigan's governor, attorney general, and secretary of state races also on the ballot. Obama is next slated to campaign in Georgia for Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms.

Ohio has emerged as the most expensive political advertising battleground in the country ahead of the 2026 midterms, with AdImpact tracking roughly $307 million in TV ad spending and reservations as of September 11 — more than Texas, Michigan, Maine, or any other Senate contest. Republicans have spent about $169 million versus $138 million from Democrats and allied groups, with six weeks still remaining before Election Day.

The spending surge centers on the Senate rematch between former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat vacated by JD Vance. Brown's 2024 race against Bernie Moreno was already the nation's most expensive Senate contest that cycle. Ohio's gubernatorial race, featuring Amy Acton and Vivek Ramaswamy, is also drawing heavy ad buys. Local TV stations are nearing saturation, and analysts expect spending to keep rising through September, underscoring Ohio's outsized role in determining Senate control.

A Fox News poll conducted Aug. 6-10 shows former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading Sen. Jon Husted (R) 53% to 45% in Ohio's U.S. Senate race, matching the same eight-point margin Fox found in late May/early June. However, other surveys and polling averages show a far tighter contest: RealClearPolling's aggregate has Brown at 47.8% and Husted at 47.2%, an AARP poll in June had Brown up just three points, and a New York Times/Siena poll had Husted ahead by three.

Analysts note methodological differences—such as registered versus likely voters—help explain the variation, and caution against treating any single poll as predictive. The Fox survey found inflation and financial strain as top voter concerns, with Brown leading heavily among those who feel they're falling behind financially. Concerns that Husted is too closely aligned with President Trump have risen since June. The same poll showed Republican Vivek Ramaswamy edging Democrat Amy Acton in the governor's race. Husted, appointed after J.D. Vance became vice president, faces Brown on Nov. 3 to serve the remainder of Vance's term.

Republican Sen. Jon Husted and Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown sparred over top voter concerns ahead of Ohio's Nov. 3 U.S. Senate election, with inflation, crime and immigration dominating the debate.

Brown blamed rising prices on an unfair economic "system," linking costs to ongoing war spending and tariffs, and pledged to end the war, roll back tariffs and restore an expanded child tax credit if reelected. Husted argued prices will fall only by boosting domestic energy and farm supply, calling for more drilling, pipelines, refineries and power plants to lower input costs.

On crime and immigration, Husted accused Brown and local leaders, including those in Cincinnati, of supporting sanctuary policies and failing to enforce border security, pointing to Ohio's high rate of repeat violent offenders. Brown countered that he supports deporting criminals, enforcing sentencing laws and tightening gun access for people with mental health issues.

The race is among the most closely watched Senate contests nationally, with control of the chamber potentially hinging on the outcome.

A newly formed super PAC called Enough Promises Ohio spent nearly $400,000 on mailers promoting independent socialist Senate candidate Greg Levy and opposing Democrat Sherrod Brown ahead of Ohio's Nov. 3 special election. The mailers, urging voters to "Join the Revolution" and "Send a Worker to the Senate," touted Levy's support for Palestinians, universal health care, free child care and education, and a $30 minimum wage.

Levy's campaign disavowed any connection to the mailers, calling them a deceptive, "racist caricaturing" of Levy, who is Black, and said it is weighing legal action. FEC records show the PAC, registered Sept. 29 in Reynoldsburg, paid a printing vendor tied to Whistlestop Strategies, a direct-mail firm linked to Republican consulting group Big Dog Strategies, which has advised Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC and Bernie Moreno's 2024 campaign against Brown. A separate GOP-aligned super PAC, Sentinel Action Fund, used the same vendor to back Republican Sen. Jon Husted. Analysts note third-party candidates can siphon marginal votes in tight races; polling shows Husted and Brown within single digits of each other, with Libertarian Bill Redpath also running.

A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Democrats with narrow leads in Ohio's marquee 2025 races, though both contests remain within the margin of error. Democrat Sherrod Brown led Republican Jon Husted 49%-46% in the Senate race, while Democrat Amy Acton led Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 49%-45% for governor. The poll surveyed 616 voters from Sept. 22 to Oct. 1, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.5 percentage points.

Both races are rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Brown and Acton held stronger net favorability than their opponents, drawing more support from younger and non-white voters, while Husted and Ramaswamy performed better among men and white voters. Voters cited the economy as their top concern, followed by inflation and immigration, and a plurality said Ohio is headed in the wrong direction. The same pollster showed Brown and Kamala Harris ahead in Ohio in October 2024, before Republicans won both races that November, underscoring the uncertainty around the latest numbers. Election Day is Nov. 3, with early voting underway.

Ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Democratic candidates hold a modest edge in recent public polling for Ohio's U.S. Senate and governor's races, and prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt show them similarly favored. News outlets are tracking these markets alongside polling as part of growing interest in their use for forecasting election outcomes.

Prediction markets are also drawing regulatory attention in Ohio: Attorney General Andy Wilson is leading a 39-state coalition asking the U.S. Supreme Court to clarify whether sports-related prediction markets should be regulated as state sports betting or as federally regulated financial contracts. A federal appeals panel recently backed Ohio regulators seeking to fine Kalshi $5 million for operating as an unlicensed sportsbook, though other courts have ruled in favor of prediction-market operators.

Other developments in the race include Sen. Bernie Moreno's FCC complaint against ABC News over a corrected story involving defense contractor Anduril, questions about a pro-Greg Levy ad possibly tied to Republicans, and Sherrod Brown ruling out support for impeaching President Trump if elected.