Indiana’s 4th Congressional District House Race 2026
Indiana’s 4th Congressional District heads to the polls on November 3, 2026, to elect its U.S. House representative. The district, covering west-central Indiana including Lafayette and surrounding rural counties, has been a reliably Republican seat in recent cycles. The contest will determine who represents the area in the 119th Congress’s successor.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on the cumulative outcome of races like this one, even in districts considered safe for one party. A surprise result here would signal broader shifts in voter sentiment across Indiana and similar Midwestern districts. Local economic conditions, candidate quality, and turnout patterns will shape how the district votes.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces this race to a binary choice between the Democratic and Republican nominees, isolating partisan control of the seat as the core variable. Traders are effectively weighing historical voting patterns against any signs of competitiveness emerging this cycle. The contract offers a direct read on how confident observers are in the district’s partisan lean holding through Election Day.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
Indiana -
Midwestern United States -
Lafayette, Indiana
Total Volume
$48k
Kalshi $9.4k · Polymarket $38.6k
Leading Market
Jim Baird
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 99%
Jim Baird Volume
$42.4k
Kalshi $4.9k · Polymarket $37.5k
Jim Baird 24h Change
+2.00%
Kalshi +2.00% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim BairdRepublican Party | 97.9¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Drew CoxDemocratic Party | 3.6¢ | 7.0% |
|
3.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Poll shows Bayh leading Engling in Indiana Secretary of State race
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
A new Free Press Indiana/Bellwether Research poll shows Democrat Beau Bayh leading Republican Max Engling in the race for Indiana Secretary of State, 43% to 35%. Libertarian Lauri Shillings drew 6% and Lincoln Party candidate Greg Ballard, a former Indianapolis mayor, drew 5%, with 11% undecided. The race drew heightened attention after incumbent Diego Morales lost his GOP renomination bid at the party's June convention. Bayh led in most regions, including Indianapolis and the Chicago/South Bend/Elkhart/Lafayette area, while Engling performed best around Fort Wayne. Bayh also posted the highest favorability rating among the four candidates, while more than 40% of voters said they had never heard of Engling, Ballard or Shillings.
The same survey of 896 registered voters, conducted Oct. 8-11 with a margin of error of ±3.4%, found Democrat Jessica Bailey narrowly ahead in the State Comptroller race and Republican Daniel Elliott leading in the State Treasurer contest. Indiana's general election is Nov. 3, with absentee ballot applications due Oct. 22.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic candidate leads the poll, reflecting positively on the party.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican candidate trails in the poll and faces low name recognition, a mildly unfavorable detail.
- Fort Wayne, Indiana Fort Wayne is noted as a region where the Republican performed best, a mildly favorable regional detail.
- Indianapolis Indianapolis is cited as a region where the Democrat led, a mildly favorable mention.
- Chicago Chicago area is referenced only as a regional polling area, a neutral factual mention.
- Elkhart, Indiana Elkhart is mentioned as part of a regional polling breakdown, neutral in tone.
- Indiana Indiana is the setting of the election coverage, a neutral factual reference.
- Lafayette, Indiana Lafayette is mentioned as part of a regional polling breakdown, neutral in tone.
- South Bend, Indiana South Bend is mentioned as part of a regional polling breakdown, neutral in tone.
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Local & State
Indiana State Sen. Ron Alting faces expanded shoplifting investigation, now including Florida incident
PN Team • 1 week ago
Indiana State Sen. Ron Alting, already facing scrutiny over alleged shoplifting at Walmart stores in Lafayette and Monticello, is now also suspected of a similar incident at a Walmart near Naples, Florida, according to a source familiar with the investigations. No charges have been filed; a special prosecutor is reviewing six alleged Lafayette incidents from August and September, and local authorities have withheld case details. Alting has acknowledged "concerning changes" in his judgment and cognitive functioning, saying he is seeking medical evaluation and treatment, and apologized for his actions. His campaign ads have continued airing despite saying he would step back from campaigning. Democratic opponent Natasha Baker called for accountability.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Lafayette, Indiana Lafayette, Indiana is cited as the site of multiple alleged shoplifting incidents, a mild negative association.
- Walmart Walmart is mentioned only as the site of the alleged shoplifting incidents, a minor tangential association.
- Collier County, Florida Collier County, Florida is implicitly referenced as the location near Naples where the new incident occurred, a neutral geographic mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as the party affiliation of Alting's opponent Natasha Baker, with no direct reputational impact.
- Indiana Indiana is mentioned as the state of the senator's office, a neutral contextual reference.
- Law enforcement Referenced neutrally as the authorities handling the investigation and withholding case details.
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Elections
Crowded Republican Field Vies to Succeed Byron Donalds in Florida’s 19th District
PN Team • 2 months ago
Florida's 19th Congressional District, a reliably Republican Southwest Florida seat being vacated by Byron Donalds as he runs for governor, holds its primary Tuesday with an unusually crowded field of ten Republicans. Several contenders arrived after political careers elsewhere: Madison Cawthorn (North Carolina), Chris Collins (New York, pardoned by Trump after an insider-trading conviction), Catalina Lauf and Jim Oberweis (both from Illinois), and Ola Hawatmeh (New York). Local media figure Jim Schwartzel and Jan. 6 defendant John Strand, also pardoned by Trump, are among the other candidates. Much of the race has centered on questions of "Florida authenticity," with candidates accusing rivals of being carpetbaggers despite many having shallow ties to the district themselves.
Trump endorsed Lauf in the campaign's final days, citing her prior role as a Commerce Department adviser during his first term. She has framed herself as an outsider best positioned to represent Trump-aligned voters, while rivals like Oberweis point to decades of Florida residency as their claim to legitimacy. The winner will be heavily favored in the general election given the district's strong Republican lean.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as an influential endorser whose backing shapes the race, a mildly favorable depiction of his political power.
- Byron Donalds Byron Donalds is mentioned neutrally as the outgoing incumbent running for governor.
- Florida Florida is the setting of the race, discussed neutrally in terms of political geography and authenticity debates.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned only as the prior home state of two candidates, framed slightly negatively amid "carpetbagger" accusations.
- New York City New York is cited as the origin of candidates accused of lacking local ties, a mildly negative context.
- North Carolina North Carolina is mentioned as Madison Cawthorn's home state amid carpetbagging criticism.
- Republican Party (United States) The article describes an internal Republican primary race without portraying the party itself positively or negatively.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the institutional context for the House seat being contested.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced factually as the body the winner will join.
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Elections
Ohio early voting opens with Senate seat, two House races poised to shape Congress control
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Early voting began Tuesday in Ohio, a state hosting some of the most competitive contests in the November 3 midterms, including a Senate special election and two House races rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. The results could help decide which party controls Congress for the next two years.
Republican Senator Jon Husted faces a challenge from Democrat Sherrod Brown, who previously held the seat for 18 years before losing it to Bernie Moreno. In the House, Republican Representative Max Miller is fighting for a third term in the 7th district amid domestic violence allegations he denies, challenged by Democrat Brian Poindexter. In the 9th district, longtime Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur faces a rematch against Republican Derek Merrin. Voters are weighing inflation, rising living costs and the ongoing US war with Iran against President Trump's record-low approval rating, with both parties watching Ohio for signs of whether disaffected voters are shifting allegiance ahead of the broader fight for House and Senate majorities.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned in connection with a record-low approval rating, a negative reputational detail.
- Sherrod Brown Brown is described as a seasoned former senator making a comeback bid, a mostly neutral-to-mildly positive framing.
- Ohio Ohio is the central location of the story, described neutrally as a competitive political battleground.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is referenced as contesting these Ohio races without favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is referenced as contesting these Ohio races in a neutral, factual manner.
- United States The United States is mentioned in context of the broader congressional elections, a neutral factual reference.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned factually as the body whose control is at stake.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned factually in relation to the special election.
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Elections
Medina mayor urges patience as Court Street paving begins
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Medina, Ohio Mayor Jim Shields is asking motorists for patience as road construction continues through the final two weeks of October. With concrete work on Court Street (US 42) between Homestead and Lafayette complete, milling and paving begin Oct. 19 near Homestead Street and move south to Lafayette Road, weather and staffing permitting. Crews will work at night near the downtown square and during the day elsewhere. Drivers should also expect construction activity on North Court Street, Broadway, Elmwood, Huntington, and Jefferson streets. Separately, the city reminded residents that polls for the Nov. 3 general election open 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m., with early voting continuing through Nov. 1.
Sources:
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Elections
Missouri congressional map dispute returns to U.S. Supreme Court for third time
PN Team • 1 month ago
Missouri's congressional redistricting fight has returned to the U.S. Supreme Court for a third time this month. Challengers of the Republican-drawn 2025 map, including the group People Not Politicians, asked the Court to block a ruling by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that had ordered the new map's revival for November's election. The Supreme Court had twice blocked use of that map, most recently in an unsigned, unexplained order on September 10 with no public dissent, after Justice Brett Kavanaugh earlier rejected an appeal from Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and sided with the Missouri Supreme Court. Despite that, an 8th Circuit panel—including two Trump appointees—upheld a federal judge's temporary order requiring use of the 2025 map, since it had already governed the August 4 primary. The Supreme Court gave the map's supporters until midday Wednesday to respond.
The dispute follows a Missouri Supreme Court ruling that a referendum challenging the 2025 map was valid, keeping the 2022 map in place pending a statewide vote. The new map, backed by President Trump and designed to help Republicans flip Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based seat and win seven of Missouri's eight House seats, has left over a million voters uncertain which district they belong to. Absentee and overseas ballots are already going out under the 2022 map, as the case continues to be the most protracted and complex of this cycle's mid-decade redistricting battles nationwide.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as backing a map designed to entrench partisan advantage, which is somewhat unfavorable.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-drawn map is depicted as a partisan gerrymander designed to flip a Democratic seat, casting it in a somewhat unfavorable light.
- Democratic Party (United States) The redistricting fight is framed as targeting a Democratic-held seat, portraying Democrats as being disadvantaged by the new map.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City is mentioned as the location of the contested district, a tangential factual reference.
- Missouri Missouri is the central subject of a contentious, unresolved political and legal dispute, reflecting mild reputational strain from ongoing dysfunction.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the body whose seats are at stake, a neutral factual reference.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced factually regarding the seats affected by redistricting.
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Elections
Trump rallies Iowa Republicans ahead of midterm elections
PN Team • 1 week ago
President Trump rallied in Sioux City, Iowa, backing Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson, Rep. Zach Nunn, and Rep. Randy Feenstra, telling supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" and warning that Democratic gains would threaten GOP wins on tariffs, trade and farm policy. Hinson, running against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in a tight contest that could decide Senate control, has distanced herself from Trump on issues like his Russia diesel deal, the Iran war's economic fallout, and tariffs, even as she campaigned alongside him. Polls show the race within a few points either way, with early voting already underway in Iowa.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Shown actively campaigning and rallying support, a favorable but routine political portrayal.
- Iran Referenced via the Iran war's negative economic fallout mentioned in the race.
- Republican Party (United States) Framed as benefiting from Trump's rally and candidates' wins on policy issues.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the threat Trump warns could gain ground in the Senate race.
- Vladimir Putin Indirectly tied to a controversial Russia diesel deal criticized in the context of the race.
- Ashley Hinson Portrayed as navigating a tight race while distancing herself from some Trump policies.
- Iowa Setting for the rally and election, neutral factual mention.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced via the House representatives campaigning, factual context only.
- United States Senate Noted as the chamber whose control could be decided by this race.
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Elections
Melissa Bean, Jennifer Davis vie for Illinois’ 8th Congressional District
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean, a centrist Democrat, is seeking a political comeback in Illinois' 8th Congressional District, facing Republican newcomer Jennifer Davis in the Nov. 3 general election. The seat is open after Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who has endorsed Bean, left to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate. An independent write-in candidate, Christopher Krumpac, is also running.
The district, which stretches from the northwest Chicago suburbs to Elgin and the Fox River Valley, leans solidly Democratic. Bean, who first won the seat in 2004 and served until 2011, has outraised Davis, aided in part by a super PAC tied to AIPAC that drew progressive criticism during the primary. Davis, a tech entrepreneur making her first run for office, has loaned her own campaign $1 million to stay competitive.
The candidates diverge sharply on abortion, immigration, and Trump-era policies, with Bean casting the race as a check on the administration and Davis positioning herself as a political outsider focused on small business and economic concerns.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Melissa Bean Bean is portrayed as a credible, experienced candidate seeking a comeback with strong fundraising and an endorsement.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as a divisive figure whose policies are being contested, with Bean positioning herself as a check on his administration.
- Israel Israel is referenced via the AIPAC-tied super PAC that drew progressive criticism.
- Democratic Party (United States) The district leans Democratic and Bean is identified as a centrist Democrat seeking a comeback.
- Raja Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi is mentioned positively as endorsing Bean, though his Senate bid failed.
- United States Senate Krishnamoorthi left the House seat to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate, a minor setback mention.
- Independent politician An independent write-in candidate, Christopher Krumpac, is mentioned as running, a neutral factual reference.
- Illinois Illinois is the state context for the district, mentioned factually.
- Illinois's 8th congressional district The article centers on the race for this congressional district, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) Davis is identified as the Republican newcomer in a neutral, factual context.
- United States The United States is mentioned as the context for the general election and Senate race.
- United States House of Representatives The race concerns a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, mentioned factually.
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Elections
AI-altered image of Iowa Democrat Rob Sand spreads in governor’s race
PN Team • 1 month ago
An AI-manipulated image showing Iowa Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wearing a large mask and face shield has circulated widely on social media since at least July, amplified in a September 1 Facebook post by Republican nominee Zach Lahn. Lahn shared the image alongside clips from a podcast appearance in which he criticized Sand, Iowa's state auditor, as an "East Coast elitist."
Fact-checkers traced the photo to an unaltered original published by the Iowa Capital Dispatch in July, showing Sand without any mask or face shield while meeting cancer-advocacy group representatives in Des Moines. OpenAI's image-verification tool detected a SynthID watermark in the altered version, confirming AI manipulation. Sand's campaign called the image fake.
Lahn, who has aligned with vaccine-skeptic rhetoric and attacked Sand over past pandemic-era mask support, is locked in a tight race to succeed term-limited Republican Governor Kim Reynolds in the reliably red state.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Rob Sand Sand is the target of a fabricated, misleading image and disparaging rhetoric, harming his public image despite his campaign disputing it.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican nominee is depicted as the one amplifying a fake, AI-manipulated image, reflecting mildly on the party.
- Democratic Party (United States) Sand is identified as a Democratic candidate but the party itself is not otherwise characterized.
- East Coast of the United States The East Coast is referenced only via a dismissive characterization used against Sand, not a substantive portrayal of the region.
- Kim Reynolds Kim Reynolds is mentioned only factually as the term-limited governor Lahn seeks to succeed.
- Iowa Iowa is the setting of the political race, mentioned factually without reputational implication.
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Elections
Ohio Senate race tests GOP strategy of tying candidates to Trump tax law
PN Team • 1 week ago
Republicans have spent heavily — about $19 million through mid-October — on ads in competitive Ohio races promoting the tax law dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill," the largest such ad push of any state this cycle. The pitch aims to boost vulnerable GOP candidates, including Sen. Jon Husted, who faces Democrat Sherrod Brown in a tight Senate race, by highlighting tax cuts on tips, overtime, and Social Security. But polling shows the message struggling against voter frustration over tariffs, inflation, and gas prices; a New York Times/Siena poll found 79 percent of likely Ohio voters disapprove of President Trump's handling of gas prices, complicating Republicans' efforts in a once reliably red state.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's handling of gas prices draws strong disapproval from voters, a clear reputational negative.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP's costly ad strategy is portrayed as struggling against voter frustration, reflecting negatively on the party's political standing.
- Sherrod Brown Brown is portrayed as competitive in a tight race benefiting from GOP struggles, a mildly favorable position.
- Democratic Party (United States) Brown's party benefits from voter frustration with Republicans, giving a mildly favorable tilt without direct coverage.
- Social Security (United States) Mentioned as a policy area (tax cuts) tied to the GOP pitch, a neutral factual reference.
- Ohio Ohio is the factual setting of the Senate race without inherent reputational framing.
- United States Senate The Senate race is the factual context for the story without reputational spin.
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Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
98.5%
David Taylor
Vol $6.2k
Wisconsin’s 1st District House Seat: Who Will Win?
Leading:
49.5%
Mitchell Berman
Vol $2.7k
Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
94%
Michael Alfonso
Vol $3.7k
Kansas’s 4th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
96%
Ron Estes
Vol $36.6k
Missouri’s 6th District House Race 2026
Leading:
97.5%
Chris Stigall
Vol $44.5k
Indiana’s 2nd Congressional District: Who Wins the House Seat
Leading:
94.5%
Rudy Yakym
Vol $3k
Iowa Governor Race 2026: Who Will Win
Leading:
86.5%
Rob Sand
Vol $20.9m
Iowa Senate Race 2026: Winner
Leading:
55.5%
Ashley Hinson
Vol $34.1m