Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District House Race 2026
Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District, covering much of the state’s northern and northwestern regions, will hold its House election on November 3, 2026. The seat has been a reliable Republican stronghold in recent cycles, but redistricting shifts and changing voter coalitions keep it on watch lists. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete for the open or incumbent-held seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of competitive districts, and WI-07 has drawn national attention due to its rural, working-class demographics and history of swinging between parties. The outcome here could signal broader trends in how rural Midwestern voters are aligning heading into 2026. Local economic conditions and candidate quality will likely shape turnout and results.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a sprawling congressional contest to a single binary question: which party’s nominee wins the seat. This isolates partisan control from the noise of vote-share margins or turnout specifics, letting traders focus purely on the end result. Shifts reflect how national sentiment, candidate strength, and local dynamics are being weighed against each other as Election Day approaches.
Related terms
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United States House of Representatives -
Redistricting -
Wisconsin -
Rural area -
Midwestern United States -
Wisconsin's 7th congressional district -
Fred Clark
Total Volume
$23.2k
Kalshi $13.9k · Polymarket $9.3k
Leading Market
Michael Alfonso
Kalshi 94% · Polymarket 94%
Michael Alfonso Volume
$8.6k
Kalshi $4.9k · Polymarket $3.7k
Michael Alfonso 24h Change
+2.70%
Kalshi +2.70% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael AlfonsoRepublican Party | 93.9¢ | 7.0% |
|
95.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Fred ClarkDemocratic Party | 7.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
7.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Crowley Campaign Faces Scrutiny Over Limited Wisconsin Appearances
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
With roughly a month until Wisconsin's election, Democratic candidate David Crowley is drawing criticism, including from some supporters, for spending limited time campaigning directly within the state. Crowley recently traveled to California for a fundraiser headlined by Kamala Harris and actor Sean Penn, and made two trips to Washington, D.C. this month seeking financial support from national Democrats. Republican opponent Tom Tiffany has significantly outraised and outspent Crowley, according to fundraising reports.
Crowley re-entered the race over the summer after initially dropping out, with Democrats citing concerns that a different candidate could lose to Tiffany in November. Critics note that Crowley has held comparatively few in-state campaign events, including rallies or town halls in Madison, while Tiffany has been touring Wisconsin broadly, holding events in cities including Milwaukee. The dynamic has drawn comparisons to Harris's 2024 presidential campaign, when questions were raised about limited outreach in some traditionally Democratic areas before her loss. The race is viewed as a competitive contest that could factor into broader midterm turnout and party strategy debates.
Sources:
Sentiment
- David Crowley (Wisconsin politician) Crowley is portrayed negatively as underperforming in-state campaigning and facing criticism from supporters.
- Tom Tiffany Tiffany is portrayed favorably as outraising his opponent and actively touring the state.
- Kamala Harris Harris is linked to a fundraiser and her 2024 campaign is referenced as a cautionary comparison involving limited outreach and a loss.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are cited as having concerns about Crowley's viability and sought a different candidate.
- Madison, Wisconsin Madison is cited as a place where Crowley held few campaign events, implying a gap in outreach.
- Milwaukee Milwaukee is mentioned as a city where Tiffany held events, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are mentioned factually as the opposing party with a fundraising edge.
- California California is mentioned factually as the location of a fundraiser Crowley attended.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the central location of the race discussed factually throughout the article.
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Elections
Rebecca Cooke wins Democratic primary for third bid against Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin
PN Team • 2 months ago
Rebecca Cooke defeated Emily Berge in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, setting up a third consecutive matchup against Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Cooke, who grew up on a dairy farm near Eau Claire and works as a waitress and small-business owner, narrowly lost to Van Orden in 2024 by less than three percentage points after also losing the 2022 primary. She entered this year's primary with backing from the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program, while Berge campaigned as a local alternative skeptical of national party influence. Cooke holds a fundraising edge, having raised about $8.6 million to Van Orden's $7.5 million, though he retains nearly $3 million more cash on hand.
The western Wisconsin district, covering Eau Claire and La Crosse, has trended Republican in presidential races but is rated a toss-up, making it Democrats' top target in the state as they seek to retake the House majority in November. Cooke is campaigning on rural frustration over Trump administration policies, including tariffs that have hurt farm exports, cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, and rising fuel and fertilizer costs tied to the Iran conflict, while Van Orden defends his record backing Trump's agenda. The race is part of a broader Wisconsin battleground that includes the 1st District, where nurse Mitchell Berman will challenge GOP Rep. Bryan Steil, and the solid-red 7th District, won by Sean Duffy's son-in-law Michael Alfonso in the Republican primary.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's policies are cited as causing farm export losses, Medicaid/SNAP cuts, and rising costs, framing his administration negatively in this context.
- Iran Iran is mentioned as a source of the conflict contributing to rising fuel and fertilizer costs, a negative economic factor.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is mentioned as the primary context and target of the House retake effort, largely factual.
- Bryan Steil Bryan Steil is mentioned neutrally as the incumbent facing a challenger in a different district.
- Sean Duffy Sean Duffy is mentioned only tangentially as the father-in-law of a Republican primary winner.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the neutral geographic setting for the election coverage.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is mentioned factually as the incumbent party in the district without strong positive or negative framing.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced only as the general context of the election, without specific reputational implications.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is mentioned factually as the body Democrats seek to retake.
- Wisconsin's 1st congressional district Wisconsin's 1st congressional district is mentioned factually as another battleground race in the state.
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Elections
Melissa Bean, Jennifer Davis vie for Illinois’ 8th Congressional District
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Former U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean, a centrist Democrat, is seeking a political comeback in Illinois' 8th Congressional District, facing Republican newcomer Jennifer Davis in the Nov. 3 general election. The seat is open after Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, who has endorsed Bean, left to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate. An independent write-in candidate, Christopher Krumpac, is also running.
The district, which stretches from the northwest Chicago suburbs to Elgin and the Fox River Valley, leans solidly Democratic. Bean, who first won the seat in 2004 and served until 2011, has outraised Davis, aided in part by a super PAC tied to AIPAC that drew progressive criticism during the primary. Davis, a tech entrepreneur making her first run for office, has loaned her own campaign $1 million to stay competitive.
The candidates diverge sharply on abortion, immigration, and Trump-era policies, with Bean casting the race as a check on the administration and Davis positioning herself as a political outsider focused on small business and economic concerns.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Melissa Bean Bean is portrayed as a credible, experienced candidate seeking a comeback with strong fundraising and an endorsement.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as a divisive figure whose policies are being contested, with Bean positioning herself as a check on his administration.
- Israel Israel is referenced via the AIPAC-tied super PAC that drew progressive criticism.
- Democratic Party (United States) The district leans Democratic and Bean is identified as a centrist Democrat seeking a comeback.
- Raja Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi is mentioned positively as endorsing Bean, though his Senate bid failed.
- United States Senate Krishnamoorthi left the House seat to run unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate, a minor setback mention.
- Independent politician An independent write-in candidate, Christopher Krumpac, is mentioned as running, a neutral factual reference.
- Illinois Illinois is the state context for the district, mentioned factually.
- Illinois's 8th congressional district The article centers on the race for this congressional district, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) Davis is identified as the Republican newcomer in a neutral, factual context.
- United States The United States is mentioned as the context for the general election and Senate race.
- United States House of Representatives The race concerns a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, mentioned factually.
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In the News
Austin officials demand independent probe after ICE agent shoots Venezuelan man
PN Team • 1 month ago
Austin city leaders and other elected officials are calling for an independent investigation after an ICE agent shot a Venezuelan man Sunday afternoon during a vehicle pursuit while he was making a DoorDash delivery. The man, identified by his attorney Kate Lincoln-Goldfinch as 28-year-old Wilber Rafael Garces Perez, says ICE officers sideswiped his car twice without warning before he was shot in the back of the neck. He was released from a hospital into ICE custody with the bullet still lodged near his spine, held at the Pearsall detention center without pain medication, and briefly returned to the hospital Monday night after complaints of untreated pain. DHS says he had a final order of removal after entering under a Biden-era asylum program later ended by Trump; his attorneys say the order stemmed from a missed hearing notice sent to an old address. Federal sources say ICE had been conducting targeted enforcement using license plate checks when they identified his vehicle.
Austin officials say the city's own EMS was requested by Austin Police, not ICE, though bystander video shows an ICE agent also asking whether an ambulance was en route; federal sources say the agent has been placed on administrative leave, standard practice in such incidents. Homeland Security Investigations and the FBI are leading the probe, with Austin Police and Texas Rangers investigating separately. Mayor Kirk Watson, Police Chief Lisa Davis, DA Jose Garza, and Congressman Greg Casar are demanding transparency and local involvement, noting this is one of at least 28 such shootings by federal immigration agents since 2024.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Greg Casar Casar is shown demanding transparency and accountability, a favorable civic role.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as having ended the Biden-era asylum program relevant to the man's removal order, indirectly tying him to the controversy.
- Austin, Texas Austin is the setting and its officials are shown responding proactively, a mildly favorable civic context.
- Law enforcement Law enforcement broadly is tied to the incident and subsequent investigations, a mixed but mostly procedural mention.
- Texas Texas is mentioned as the state where the incident and detention occurred, largely factual context.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as the body Casar belongs to, with no direct evaluative content.
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Elections
Iowa early voting begins amid battleground races
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Early voting opens Wednesday in Iowa, a state hosting competitive races for governor and seats in the U.S. Senate and House. Voters cite cost of living as a top concern, with Midwest grocery prices up 2.2% year-over-year as of July. Tariffs and agriculture are also prominent issues, as Iowa importers have paid an estimated $1.7 billion in tariffs through June while farmers face high input costs and trade uncertainty.
Other key issues include health care, with Iowa facing Medicaid budget pressures and upcoming eligibility changes such as work requirements, and water quality, which a poll commissioned by the Johns Hopkins Center for a Livable Future found ranks among the top five concerns for 60% of likely voters, including 64% of independents. School funding, particularly Iowa's expanding private-school tuition program, remains another dividing line. Mail ballot requests must reach county auditors by 5 p.m. Monday, Oct. 19, with early voting locations varying by county.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Independent politician Independents are mentioned as a voter segment concerned about water quality, a neutral factual reference.
- Iowa Iowa is the central subject of the article, described factually regarding elections and voter concerns without favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Midwestern United States The Midwest is referenced factually regarding grocery price trends, a neutral statistical mention.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate is mentioned only as one of the competitive races in Iowa, a neutral factual mention.
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Elections
Wisconsin governor’s race remains tight as Tiffany distances himself from Trump
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Wisconsin's open governor's race is shaping up as one of the tightest contests of the midterms, pitting Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley against U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, a longtime Trump ally who has recently distanced himself from the president on Iran policy and AI data centers. Polling, including a Marquette University Law School survey, shows the race roughly even despite Trump's low approval ratings nationally. Tiffany, backed by three billionaire megadonors, has outspent Crowley roughly $53 million to $35 million and has attacked him on crime and immigration, including a Milwaukee County inmate tablet program Crowley recently curtailed. Crowley, who narrowly won a chaotic Democratic primary over democratic socialist Francesca Hong, is trying to tie Tiffany to Trump, tariffs, and gas prices, while Democratic leaders including Gov. Tony Evers, Hong, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, and Kamala Harris rally behind him. Crowley would be Wisconsin's first Black governor. The race, open for the first time in 16 years, could also affect control of the Legislature.
Sentiment
- David Crowley (Wisconsin politician) Crowley is portrayed as a viable, historic candidate who could become Wisconsin's first Black governor, despite facing attacks on crime policy.
- Donald Trump Trump is referenced as having low approval ratings and being distanced from by his own ally, a mildly negative portrayal.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic leaders are rallying behind Crowley, portraying the party as unified and active.
- Tom Tiffany Tiffany is shown as a well-funded candidate distancing himself from Trump while facing attacks on his record, a mixed but slightly unfavorable framing.
- Iran Iran is mentioned only as a policy topic over which Tiffany diverges from Trump.
- Republican Party (United States) Tiffany, a Republican, is depicted as distancing from Trump amid a tight, high-spending race, a largely neutral tactical portrayal.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the central location of a competitive, high-profile governor's race, a neutral factual reference.
- United States The United States is mentioned only in the context of national approval ratings and midterms.
- United States House of Representatives Tiffany's House seat is mentioned factually as context for his political career.
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Elections
Democrats target Wisconsin’s Steil as GOP plays defense in House battle for majority
PN Team • 1 month ago
Democrats have added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, to the DCCC's "red to blue" program targeting vulnerable GOP incumbents. Challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate, is betting that voter anger over the economy, health care costs and gas prices under President Trump can overcome Steil's fundraising edge and name recognition after eight years in office. Steil, who succeeded Paul Ryan in a district with deep manufacturing losses, has won all four of his races by at least 9 points and entered August with a large cash advantage over Berman.
The race illustrates broader national trends: Trump-aligned PACs have spent tens of millions on House ads since September, with the vast majority going toward defending districts Trump carried in 2024 rather than targeting Democratic-held seats, signaling Republicans are largely on defense this cycle. Democrats hope a strong enough "blue wave" could flip even well-funded, longtime incumbents like Steil, though party officials on both sides say an upset remains a steep climb for Berman.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Bryan Steil Steil is portrayed as a strong, well-funded incumbent with a solid electoral track record despite facing a new challenge.
- Donald Trump Voter anger over economic issues is attributed to conditions under Trump's presidency, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Mitchell Berman Berman is presented as an underdog challenger with a relatable profile, though his chances are described as slim.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as mounting a credible offensive effort in a competitive district.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are described as largely playing defense nationally, a mildly unfavorable strategic position.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced only as the institutional context for the House seat.
- Wave elections in the United States Wave elections are mentioned as a general electoral concept relevant to the race's dynamics.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the factual setting of the race with no particular reputational spin.
- Wisconsin's 1st congressional district The district is the neutral factual subject of the entire article.
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Democrats target Wisconsin’s Steil as GOP-aligned PACs pour money into House races
PN Team • 1 month ago
Democrats have added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil since 2019, to the DCCC's "red to blue" target list, boosting resources for challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate. Democrats hope voter anger over Trump's approval rating, healthcare costs, gas prices and tariffs could turn a modest "blue wave" into a bigger upset, though officials in both parties consider it a long shot given Steil's name recognition and fundraising edge.
Steil and allied groups have outspent Berman roughly 2-1, entering August with $6.3 million cash on hand versus about $152,000 for Berman. Nationally, Trump-aligned groups No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC have spent more than $84 million on House ads since September, with 96% concentrated in districts Trump carried in 2024 — a sign Republicans are playing defense but retain a financial cushion. Steil, seen as a possible 2028 Senate contender, has won his prior four races by at least 9 points. The district, anchored by Racine, Kenosha and Janesville, leans Republican but has grown more competitive under redrawn maps.
Sources:
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Elections
Colorado’s 4th District race shapes up around cost of living, immigration and land use
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
A candidate questionnaire from The Denver Post offers a window into the competitive race for Colorado's 4th Congressional District. One contender, a retired Navy rear admiral and former Special Assistant to the President for South Asia, outlined priorities centered on lowering costs, balancing the federal budget, and curbing congressional corruption through term limits, age limits, and a ban on lawmakers trading stocks.
On policy specifics, the candidate called for ending tariffs, passing a comprehensive farm bill, and requiring insurers to reimburse rural hospitals more fairly. They said federal land in the district should not be a default target for new oil and gas leasing, favoring local input over blanket Washington mandates. On immigration, they backed stronger border security paired with legal pathways addressing labor shortages in agriculture and rural health care. They also urged more congressional oversight of executive actions, including unauthorized military engagements and federal spending. Incumbent Lauren Boebert and candidate Douglas Mangeris did not respond to the questionnaire.
Sources:
Sentiment
- United States Congress Referenced in context of congressional corruption concerns and calls for term limits and oversight, a mildly critical framing.
- Washington, D.C. Referenced indirectly through criticism of 'Washington mandates' and federal overreach.
- Colorado Colorado is the location of the congressional race discussed factually.
- United States House of Representatives Implied as the body being contested in this district race, mentioned factually.
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Leading:
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Vol $2.7k
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