Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District House Race 2026
Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District, anchored in the Cincinnati suburbs and stretching across southern Ohio, holds its 2026 House election this November. The seat has long leaned Republican, but redistricting and shifting turnout patterns keep it on watch lists each cycle. Candidates from both major parties, along with potential third-party or independent contenders, are expected to compete for the seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House of Representatives often comes down to a small number of competitive districts, and seats like OH-02 help determine which party sets the legislative agenda for the next two years. A shift in this historically Republican-leaning district would signal broader national momentum. Local results here are frequently read as a bellwether for suburban and rural voter sentiment across the Midwest.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
At its core, this market asks a binary question: which party’s nominee will win the OH-02 seat. That framing isolates partisan control rather than vote share or margin, reducing a complex campaign to a single tradeable outcome. Traders are effectively weighing incumbency strength, candidate quality, and turnout dynamics against the district’s historical partisan lean to settle on who is favored heading into Election Day.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Ohio -
Redistricting -
Cincinnati -
Midwestern United States
Total Volume
$16.2k
Kalshi $7.8k · Polymarket $8.4k
Leading Market
David Taylor
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 99%
David Taylor Volume
$12.4k
Kalshi $6.2k · Polymarket $6.2k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David TaylorRepublican Party | 98.8¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Jennifer MazzuckelliDemocratic Party | 4.3¢ | 7.0% |
|
3.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Ohio GOP Candidate Eric Conroy Warns of DSA Influence in Bid to Unseat Rep. Greg Landsman
PN Team • 2 months ago
Eric Conroy, the Republican candidate for Ohio's 1st Congressional District, said the Democratic Socialists of America are "on the rise" within the Democratic Party as he seeks to unseat incumbent Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH). Speaking on Breitbart News Daily, Conroy said the race hinges on voter turnout, citing a slight Republican registration advantage in the redrawn district and pointing to Ohio's gubernatorial and Senate races as potential turnout drivers.
Conroy criticized Landsman on immigration, transgender policy in youth sports and medicine, and tax policy, calling him a "wolf in sheep's clothing" who votes as a "radical leftist" in Washington despite presenting himself as a moderate Midwesterner at home. He also linked Landsman to Nancy Pelosi and criticized a past Cincinnati City Council vote related to police funding. Conroy, a 14-year veteran of the Air Force and CIA, framed the contest as a broader battle over American values in a district that was reliably Republican for decades before Landsman's two terms in office.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Conroy portrays Landsman as secretly aligned with a 'radical leftist' Democratic Party agenda, casting the party negatively.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is portrayed favorably as having a registration advantage and being the vehicle for Conroy's challenge.
- Cincinnati Cincinnati is mentioned in connection with a criticized City Council vote on police funding.
- United States The article frames the race as part of a broader battle over American values, a mild patriotic framing without direct criticism.
- Ohio Ohio is discussed factually as the state and district context for the race without clear positive or negative framing.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced factually as the body Landsman serves in, with a critical undertone about his voting record there.
- United States Senate Mentioned only as a factor potentially driving voter turnout, with no clear reputational framing.
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Elections
Ohio early voting opens with Senate seat, two House races poised to shape Congress control
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Early voting began Tuesday in Ohio, a state hosting some of the most competitive contests in the November 3 midterms, including a Senate special election and two House races rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. The results could help decide which party controls Congress for the next two years.
Republican Senator Jon Husted faces a challenge from Democrat Sherrod Brown, who previously held the seat for 18 years before losing it to Bernie Moreno. In the House, Republican Representative Max Miller is fighting for a third term in the 7th district amid domestic violence allegations he denies, challenged by Democrat Brian Poindexter. In the 9th district, longtime Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur faces a rematch against Republican Derek Merrin. Voters are weighing inflation, rising living costs and the ongoing US war with Iran against President Trump's record-low approval rating, with both parties watching Ohio for signs of whether disaffected voters are shifting allegiance ahead of the broader fight for House and Senate majorities.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned in connection with a record-low approval rating, a negative reputational detail.
- Sherrod Brown Brown is described as a seasoned former senator making a comeback bid, a mostly neutral-to-mildly positive framing.
- Ohio Ohio is the central location of the story, described neutrally as a competitive political battleground.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is referenced as contesting these Ohio races without favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is referenced as contesting these Ohio races in a neutral, factual manner.
- United States The United States is mentioned in context of the broader congressional elections, a neutral factual reference.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned factually as the body whose control is at stake.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned factually in relation to the special election.
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Elections
Missouri congressional map dispute returns to U.S. Supreme Court for third time
PN Team • 1 month ago
Missouri's congressional redistricting fight has returned to the U.S. Supreme Court for a third time this month. Challengers of the Republican-drawn 2025 map, including the group People Not Politicians, asked the Court to block a ruling by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that had ordered the new map's revival for November's election. The Supreme Court had twice blocked use of that map, most recently in an unsigned, unexplained order on September 10 with no public dissent, after Justice Brett Kavanaugh earlier rejected an appeal from Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and sided with the Missouri Supreme Court. Despite that, an 8th Circuit panel—including two Trump appointees—upheld a federal judge's temporary order requiring use of the 2025 map, since it had already governed the August 4 primary. The Supreme Court gave the map's supporters until midday Wednesday to respond.
The dispute follows a Missouri Supreme Court ruling that a referendum challenging the 2025 map was valid, keeping the 2022 map in place pending a statewide vote. The new map, backed by President Trump and designed to help Republicans flip Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based seat and win seven of Missouri's eight House seats, has left over a million voters uncertain which district they belong to. Absentee and overseas ballots are already going out under the 2022 map, as the case continues to be the most protracted and complex of this cycle's mid-decade redistricting battles nationwide.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as backing a map designed to entrench partisan advantage, which is somewhat unfavorable.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-drawn map is depicted as a partisan gerrymander designed to flip a Democratic seat, casting it in a somewhat unfavorable light.
- Democratic Party (United States) The redistricting fight is framed as targeting a Democratic-held seat, portraying Democrats as being disadvantaged by the new map.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City is mentioned as the location of the contested district, a tangential factual reference.
- Missouri Missouri is the central subject of a contentious, unresolved political and legal dispute, reflecting mild reputational strain from ongoing dysfunction.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the body whose seats are at stake, a neutral factual reference.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced factually regarding the seats affected by redistricting.
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Elections
Ohio Governor’s Race Turns Bitter as Acton Refuses to Debate Ramaswamy
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy are courting rural Ohio voters ahead of the Nov. 3 governor's race to succeed term-limited Mike DeWine, with the Cook Political Report ranking the contest a toss-up. In Marietta, Acton proposed a three-year moratorium on new fracking injection wells over groundwater fears, winning praise from a local Republican official. Both candidates have also targeted data centers, with Ramaswamy pushing a plan requiring tech companies to cover residents' electricity bills, halt non-disclosure agreements, and build only on pre-zoned industrial land rather than farmland, while Acton wants data center projects to prove they can cover utility costs and use union labor before proceeding.
The race has grown notably hostile, including an incident in which an armed man charged toward Acton at a campaign stop, injuring bystanders. Acton has refused to debate Ramaswamy, accusing him of lying and attacking her family, though she remains open to forums. Early voting began Oct. 6, with polling showing Acton holding a narrow lead. Other close Ohio contests include U.S. House races in the 7th and 9th districts.
Sentiment
- Amy Acton Portrayed sympathetically as a target of violence but also as refusing to debate and accusing opponent of lying, a mixed but slightly negative framing given the debate-refusal controversy in the headline.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as Acton's party affiliation in a factual context.
- Mike DeWine Mentioned neutrally as the term-limited outgoing governor.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as Ramaswamy's party affiliation in a factual context.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Presented factually proposing policy positions on data centers without notable praise or criticism.
- Ohio Central setting of the gubernatorial race, mentioned neutrally.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as the body for unrelated close Ohio House district races.
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Elections
Ohio Senate race tests GOP strategy of tying candidates to Trump tax law
PN Team • 1 week ago
Republicans have spent heavily — about $19 million through mid-October — on ads in competitive Ohio races promoting the tax law dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill," the largest such ad push of any state this cycle. The pitch aims to boost vulnerable GOP candidates, including Sen. Jon Husted, who faces Democrat Sherrod Brown in a tight Senate race, by highlighting tax cuts on tips, overtime, and Social Security. But polling shows the message struggling against voter frustration over tariffs, inflation, and gas prices; a New York Times/Siena poll found 79 percent of likely Ohio voters disapprove of President Trump's handling of gas prices, complicating Republicans' efforts in a once reliably red state.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's handling of gas prices draws strong disapproval from voters, a clear reputational negative.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP's costly ad strategy is portrayed as struggling against voter frustration, reflecting negatively on the party's political standing.
- Sherrod Brown Brown is portrayed as competitive in a tight race benefiting from GOP struggles, a mildly favorable position.
- Democratic Party (United States) Brown's party benefits from voter frustration with Republicans, giving a mildly favorable tilt without direct coverage.
- Social Security (United States) Mentioned as a policy area (tax cuts) tied to the GOP pitch, a neutral factual reference.
- Ohio Ohio is the factual setting of the Senate race without inherent reputational framing.
- United States Senate The Senate race is the factual context for the story without reputational spin.
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Elections
Obama Campaigns in Ohio and Michigan, Targets Trump and Ramaswamy Ad Controversy
PN Team • 6 days ago
Barack Obama rallied Democrats in Cleveland, campaigning with Senate candidate Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton days before the midterms. He condemned Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy's ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, which attacks her over childhood abuse and homelessness, calling it a sign of declining political decency. Trump and JD Vance have defended the ad despite criticism from Ohio Republicans including Gov. Mike DeWine. Obama also faulted Trump for rising costs and White House renovations. He later campaigned in Detroit for Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers, with Michigan's governor, attorney general, and secretary of state races also on the ballot. Obama is next slated to campaign in Georgia for Jon Ossoff and Keisha Lance Bottoms.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Vivek Ramaswamy Criticized for running a widely condemned personal attack ad.
- Donald Trump Criticized for defending a controversial ad and blamed for rising costs and renovations.
- Amy Acton Portrayed as the sympathetic target of a personal attack ad over childhood abuse and homelessness.
- Barack Obama Depicted as an active, principled campaigner condemning political decency decline.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans tied to a controversial attack ad, with internal criticism from Ohio Republicans.
- Mike DeWine Shown as a Republican breaking ranks to criticize the attack ad.
- Democratic Party (United States) Obama campaigns for Democratic candidates, framing the party positively but without strong emphasis.
- Ohio Site of political controversy and internal Republican division over the ad.
- Sherrod Brown Mentioned as a Senate candidate benefiting from Obama's campaign support.
- Abdul El-Sayed Named as a Detroit gubernatorial candidate without further detail or judgment.
- United States Senate Mentioned only as context for Sherrod Brown's Senate candidacy.
- Cleveland Setting for Obama's rally, mentioned factually.
- Detroit Setting for Obama's campaign stop, mentioned factually.
- Michigan Context for multiple statewide races mentioned factually.
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Elections
Data center backlash becomes flashpoint in Ohio Senate race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Ohio's Senate race between Republican incumbent Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown has become a bellwether contest as both parties battle for control of the chamber. Husted, appointed to fill JD Vance's seat, faces backlash over his past promotion of tax breaks that brought more than 200 data centers to Ohio, including one under construction in Pike County expected to be the world's largest. Ohio's projected sales tax giveaway to data centers ballooned from an estimated $136 million to more than $1.5 billion, fueling voter anger over electricity costs, water use, and air quality. Husted notes the incentives originated in 2011 and expanded under Gov. John Kasich, before his time in statewide economic development roles, and he has since backed pausing the tax breaks and co-sponsored legislation making data center operators help cover grid costs.
Brown, who lost his Senate seat in 2024, is courting working-class voters in areas like the Mahoning Valley that have drifted toward Trump. Both candidates now say data centers should cover their own power and infrastructure costs and that local communities should have final say on new projects, though Brown wants residents given more information before approvals, while neither favors halting data center growth outright. Both campaigns have combined for well over $150 million in ad spending, with outside groups like Elon Musk's America PAC adding pressure to a race seen as pivotal to Senate control.
Sentiment
- Ohio Ohio is depicted as suffering from a costly tax giveaway and voter anger over utility and environmental impacts from data centers.
- Sherrod Brown Brown is portrayed positively as courting working-class voters and pushing for more transparency for residents on data center projects.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as one of the two parties battling for Senate control, without partisan judgment.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned only as the party of the incumbent contesting the seat, without evaluative framing.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced as the chamber whose control is at stake, a neutral factual mention.
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Elections
Husted, Brown clash over inflation, crime and immigration in Ohio Senate race
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Republican Sen. Jon Husted and Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown sparred over top voter concerns ahead of Ohio's Nov. 3 U.S. Senate election, with inflation, crime and immigration dominating the debate.
Brown blamed rising prices on an unfair economic "system," linking costs to ongoing war spending and tariffs, and pledged to end the war, roll back tariffs and restore an expanded child tax credit if reelected. Husted argued prices will fall only by boosting domestic energy and farm supply, calling for more drilling, pipelines, refineries and power plants to lower input costs.
On crime and immigration, Husted accused Brown and local leaders, including those in Cincinnati, of supporting sanctuary policies and failing to enforce border security, pointing to Ohio's high rate of repeat violent offenders. Brown countered that he supports deporting criminals, enforcing sentencing laws and tightening gun access for people with mental health issues.
The race is among the most closely watched Senate contests nationally, with control of the chamber potentially hinging on the outcome.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Cincinnati Cited by Husted as an example of sanctuary policies linked to crime concerns, casting it in a negative light.
- Ohio Referenced regarding high rates of repeat violent offenders, a mildly negative statistic.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned contextually as Sherrod Brown's party without direct praise or criticism.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned contextually as Jon Husted's party in a balanced debate recap.
- Sherrod Brown Depicted defending his record on crime and immigration with counterarguments, a balanced portrayal amid criticism from his opponent.
- United States Senate Referenced as the governing body at stake in the election without specific reputational framing.
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Elections
Ohio lawmakers to reconvene on Ramaswamy’s gas-tax suspension plan
PN Team • 1 month ago
Ohio legislative leaders are scrambling to reconvene lawmakers next week to vote on a proposal from Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy to suspend the state's gas and diesel taxes for 90 days amid surging fuel prices. House Speaker Matt Huffman and Senate President Rob McColley, Ramaswamy's running mate, said their chambers plan to return around Sept. 30, though the effort to secure enough votes and lawmaker attendance was still in flux. The plan, unveiled Monday, would suspend Ohio's 38.5-cents-per-gallon gas tax and 47-cents-per-gallon diesel tax, at a cost of roughly $640 million covered by ODOT reserves, the general fund, and potentially the state's rainy-day fund.
Passing it with immediate effect requires a two-thirds "emergency clause" vote, meaning some Democratic support is needed in the House. Gov. Mike DeWine, who previously blocked a similar moratorium, has not committed to signing it. Critics have called the timing—weeks before the Nov. 3 election, with Ramaswamy facing a competitive race against Amy Acton—politically motivated.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Vivek Ramaswamy Ramaswamy's tax plan is portrayed as a politically motivated election-season maneuver amid a competitive race.
- Mike DeWine DeWine is portrayed as noncommittal and previously obstructive to a similar plan, a mildly unfavorable framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic support is needed for the emergency clause, mentioned neutrally as a procedural factor.
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for the tax policy debate, a neutral contextual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican leaders are pushing the plan, framed partly as politically motivated ahead of an election.
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Elections
Ohio and Columbus 2026 Election Guide
PN Team • 4 days ago
Ohio's Nov. 3 ballot features a high-profile governor's race between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton, Ohio's former pandemic-era health director, in a contest that could end two decades of GOP control. Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Sen. Sherrod Brown in a toss-up race with national implications for Senate control. Voters will also decide Issue 3, which would enshrine Ohio's photo ID voting requirement in the state constitution, plus races for attorney general, secretary of state, auditor, treasurer and state supreme court seats.
Locally, Columbus voters weigh two competing city charter amendments (Issues 8 and 9) that would reshape how City Council members are elected, while Franklin County-area communities decide school levies, bond issues and charter changes.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Amy Acton Described neutrally as the Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former health director.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Described neutrally as the Republican gubernatorial candidate.
- Columbus, Ohio Referenced regarding local charter amendment ballot measures.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of two candidates in a factual election overview.
- Ohio Central setting for the election guide, described factually.
- Republican Party (United States) Noted as the party controlling the governorship for two decades, stated factually.
- Sherrod Brown Mentioned factually as the Democratic Senate candidate facing Husted.
- United States Senate Referenced as the body whose control is at stake in the Senate race.
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