Missouri’s 6th District House Race 2026
Missouri’s 6th Congressional District, a sprawling northern and western swath of the state anchored by St. Joseph and parts of the Kansas City suburbs, heads to the polls in November 2026 to elect its next U.S. House representative. The district has leaned Republican in recent cycles, but redistricting and shifting turnout patterns keep the contest on watch lists. Candidates from both major parties are expected to campaign on the economy, agriculture policy, and border security.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often comes down to a handful of competitive seats, and rural districts like Missouri’s 6th can signal broader shifts in voter sentiment across the Midwest. A Republican hold would reinforce the party’s grip on agricultural and exurban regions, while any Democratic inroads would suggest weakening rural support for the GOP. The outcome feeds directly into which party sets the House agenda for the following two years.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is simple: which party wins the seat, reduced to a binary Democrat-versus-Republican proposition rather than a ranked field of candidates. Separate contracts on individual named candidates let traders isolate primary outcomes from the general election result. Together these markets translate a multi-stage electoral process into discrete, tradeable checkpoints tied to party control rather than personality.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Missouri -
Midwestern United States -
Kansas City, Missouri -
St. Joseph, Missouri
Total Volume
$104.1k
Kalshi $11.2k · Polymarket $92.9k
Leading Market
Chris Stigall
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 98%
Chris Stigall Volume
$47.1k
Kalshi $2.5k · Polymarket $44.5k
Chris Stigall 24h Change
-2.50%
Kalshi -2.50% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris StigallRepublican Party | 97.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
98.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Josh SweatDemocratic Party | 3.8¢ | 7.0% |
|
4.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Missouri congressional map dispute returns to U.S. Supreme Court for third time
PN Team • 1 month ago
Missouri's congressional redistricting fight has returned to the U.S. Supreme Court for a third time this month. Challengers of the Republican-drawn 2025 map, including the group People Not Politicians, asked the Court to block a ruling by the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that had ordered the new map's revival for November's election. The Supreme Court had twice blocked use of that map, most recently in an unsigned, unexplained order on September 10 with no public dissent, after Justice Brett Kavanaugh earlier rejected an appeal from Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and sided with the Missouri Supreme Court. Despite that, an 8th Circuit panel—including two Trump appointees—upheld a federal judge's temporary order requiring use of the 2025 map, since it had already governed the August 4 primary. The Supreme Court gave the map's supporters until midday Wednesday to respond.
The dispute follows a Missouri Supreme Court ruling that a referendum challenging the 2025 map was valid, keeping the 2022 map in place pending a statewide vote. The new map, backed by President Trump and designed to help Republicans flip Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based seat and win seven of Missouri's eight House seats, has left over a million voters uncertain which district they belong to. Absentee and overseas ballots are already going out under the 2022 map, as the case continues to be the most protracted and complex of this cycle's mid-decade redistricting battles nationwide.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as backing a map designed to entrench partisan advantage, which is somewhat unfavorable.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-drawn map is depicted as a partisan gerrymander designed to flip a Democratic seat, casting it in a somewhat unfavorable light.
- Democratic Party (United States) The redistricting fight is framed as targeting a Democratic-held seat, portraying Democrats as being disadvantaged by the new map.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City is mentioned as the location of the contested district, a tangential factual reference.
- Missouri Missouri is the central subject of a contentious, unresolved political and legal dispute, reflecting mild reputational strain from ongoing dysfunction.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the body whose seats are at stake, a neutral factual reference.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced factually regarding the seats affected by redistricting.
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Elections
Missouri’s 4th District House Race: Alford Faces Air Force Veteran Herrera
PN Team • 2 days ago
Missouri's 4th Congressional District race pits two-term Republican incumbent Mark Alford, a former TV anchor serving on House Armed Services and Appropriations committees, against Democrat Jordan Herrera, an Air Force veteran and Missouri assistant attorney general, and Libertarian Thomas Holbrook. Alford campaigns on an America First platform, border enforcement and reduced federal spending, while Herrera emphasizes economic security, healthcare access and limiting government regulation of personal life. Holbrook opposes gerrymandering and tariffs. The district's boundaries remain contested: the 2022 map, used for this election, covers west-central Missouri, while a newer 2025 map used for the primary would shift Kansas City into the district instead of District 5.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Identified as Herrera's party affiliation in a factual race description.
- Kansas City, Missouri Mentioned factually regarding redistricting plans affecting the district's boundaries.
- Missouri Named as the state hosting the congressional race, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) Identified as Alford's party affiliation in a factual race description.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced as the chamber both candidates seek to join, described neutrally.
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Elections
Supreme Court Rejects Trump-Backed Missouri Map, Reverting to 2022 Districts
PN Team • 2 months ago
The U.S. Supreme Court has ended, for now, Missouri's year-long redistricting battle by rejecting the Trump-backed congressional map, clearing the way for the state to use districts drawn in 2022 for the November election. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins directed local election authorities to use the 2022 map after the ruling, following the Missouri Supreme Court's earlier order; Attorney General Catherine Hanaway followed suit. Hoskins had briefly been found in contempt for trying to use the new map before correcting course, and the court imposed no penalty once he complied.
The switch means Missouri could hold its general election under different districts than were used in the August primary, potentially changing candidate choices for roughly a quarter of the state's voters. The dispute centers on a GOP-drawn map targeting Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-area seat, part of a broader Trump-driven redistricting push following similar action in Texas. Gov. Mike Kehoe still hopes the map can be revived, watching the 8th Circuit, which will hear arguments ahead of a Sept. 19 deadline to finalize ballots for overseas military voters. A statewide referendum on the map also remains on the November ballot.
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP-drawn map targeting a Democratic seat was rejected, reflecting a setback for Republican redistricting efforts.
- Donald Trump The Trump-backed map was rejected by the Supreme Court, portraying a legal defeat for his redistricting push.
- Democratic Party (United States) The ruling reverts to a map more favorable to Democratic Rep. Cleaver's seat, a mild positive for the party.
- Texas Referenced as part of the broader Trump-driven redistricting push, a mildly negative association with partisan gerrymandering efforts.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned tangentially as the body whose composition is affected by redistricting, without direct reputational implications.
- Kansas City, Missouri Mentioned as the location of the contested congressional seat, a factual geographic reference.
- Missouri Central to the factual redistricting dispute without inherent reputational judgment on the state itself.
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Elections
Missouri Supreme Court blocks Trump-backed congressional map, orders statewide vote
PN Team • 2 months ago
The Missouri Supreme Court unanimously blocked new Republican-drawn congressional districts, backed by Donald Trump, from taking effect in the November election and ordered a statewide referendum on whether to uphold or reject the map. Though used in the August primary, the map cannot be used again unless voters approve it; the 2022 map remains in effect for the midterms otherwise. The court ruled that a constitutional provision allowing referendums on "any act" of the Legislature applies to congressional redistricting, overturning Secretary of State Denny Hoskins' rejection of a petition backed by over 300,000 signatures.
The map had targeted the 5th Congressional District held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, stretching it into rural Republican territory. Attorney General Catherine Hanaway and Gov. Mike Kehoe called the ruling an unprecedented constitutional crisis and vowed an immediate appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court; Trump called it a "Dark Day" for Missouri. Hoskins vowed to keep fighting, while Democrats and redistricting advocates celebrated the decision as a rare setback in Trump's nationwide mid-decade redistricting push spanning more than a dozen states ahead of the midterms.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's backed map was blocked and he called the ruling a 'Dark Day,' framing him as suffering a political setback.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-drawn map was blocked by the court as unconstitutional, a setback for the party's redistricting push.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats celebrated the ruling as a rare win against Republican-led redistricting efforts.
- United States House of Representatives The dispute concerns congressional districts and representation but the body itself is only tangentially referenced.
- Missouri Missouri is the setting of the political and legal dispute without a clear reputational judgment on the state itself.
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Elections
Missouri redistricting fight escalates as voters sue Hoskins for $80 million
PN Team • 2 months ago
Missouri's congressional map dispute continues even after two Supreme Court setbacks for Republicans. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins conceded during a contempt hearing and reverted to the state's 2022 congressional map after the Missouri Supreme Court unanimously found he improperly blocked a citizen referendum, which had gathered roughly 300,000 signatures, to suspend the GOP's 2025 map. That map would have shifted the delegation from 6-2 to 7-1 Republican.
Five Missouri voters have since sued Hoskins, seeking roughly $80 million in damages on behalf of about 162,000 people whose referendum signatures were verified, alleging he violated statutory duties by improperly rejecting the petition and repeatedly directing election authorities to use the invalid 2025 map.
Republicans, including Rep. Bob Onder, Gov. Mike Kehoe, and Hoskins, are still pursuing the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which has expedited briefing ahead of the Sept. 19 overseas ballot deadline. Legal scholars note the Supreme Court's stay effectively controls the outcome regardless of the appeals court's ruling, with broader implications for the 2026 midterm balance of power.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans, including Hoskins, Onder, and Kehoe, are portrayed as pursuing a redistricting map that courts found improperly blocked a citizen referendum.
- Missouri Missouri is the setting of the legal and political dispute, portrayed neutrally as the state involved.
- United States House of Representatives The House delegation balance is discussed factually as the stakes of the redistricting dispute.
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Elections
Missouri judge clears Trump-backed House map for November election
PN Team • 2 months ago
Cole County Circuit Judge Daniel Green ruled that Missouri's new, Trump-backed congressional map can be used in November's elections, rejecting a bid by the coalition People Not Politicians to force a statewide referendum on the redrawn districts. Green sided with Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and GOP officials, finding the state constitution does not extend referendum rights to congressional redistricting and that swapping maps after the August primary would violate federal law. Opponents, including PNP director Richard von Glahn, immediately vowed to appeal to the Missouri Supreme Court, which upheld the map in May without ruling on referendum eligibility. Republicans, including Gov. Mike Kehoe and RNC Chairman Joe Gruters, celebrated the decision.
The map reshapes Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-based 5th District, pushing roughly 59% of its voters into new, rural Republican-leaning territory, and is expected to shrink Missouri's Democratic House delegation from two seats to one. The push, prompted by Trump's call for GOP-led states to redraw lines ahead of the midterms, has spurred litigation nationwide as Republicans and Democrats race to lock in favorable maps in states including Texas, North Carolina, California, and Utah, with control of the House at stake.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party stands to lose a House seat in Missouri due to the redrawn map, a clear political setback.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans successfully defended their favorable redistricting map and gained a likely additional House seat, with officials celebrating the ruling.
- Donald Trump Trump's push for the redistricting effort succeeded in this ruling, favorably advancing his political agenda.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City's district was redrawn to dilute Democratic voting power, negatively affecting the area's political representation.
- Missouri Missouri is the central setting of a contentious redistricting fight with mixed political implications for the state.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned only as the body whose control is at stake nationally, without direct reputational impact.
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Elections
Missouri map fight escalates to federal court ahead of ballot deadline
PN Team • 2 months ago
A dispute over which congressional map Missouri will use in November has moved into federal court as a ballot-change deadline looms. The Missouri Supreme Court ruled unanimously that a referendum petition from People Not Politicians was legally sufficient, meaning the 2025 GOP-favored map — drawn last September at President Trump's urging to create a 7-1 GOP advantage — cannot take effect until voters approve it, forcing a return to the old district lines under which much of Kansas City remains in Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's 5th District. The referendum will appear as Proposition A on the November 3 ballot.
Attorney General Catherine Hanaway has appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, while Solicitor General Lou Capozzi asked a federal judge to block the state ruling on behalf of Secretary of State Denny Hoskins. Separately, U.S. Rep. Bob Onder, state Sen. Rick Brattin, and two voters sued to force use of the 2025 map, with Hoskins siding with them. People Not Politicians seeks dismissal, warning of chaos from last-minute changes. Decisions could come before Tuesday's deadline.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump The map was drawn at Trump's urging to favor Republicans, but it was struck down, reflecting negatively on his political influence here.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP-favored map is blocked pending voter approval, a setback for Republican redistricting efforts.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic-held Cleaver district benefits from the old map remaining in effect, a mildly favorable outcome for the party.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City is mentioned as remaining in a Democratic district under the old map, a neutral factual detail.
- Missouri Missouri is the setting of a contentious legal and political redistricting battle with unresolved implications.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as context for the congressional district dispute without direct characterization.
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Congress
Missouri’s Mid-Decade Redistricting Fight Heads to a Public Vote
PN Team • 2 months ago
Missouri has become a flashpoint in the national battle over congressional redistricting ahead of the midterms. Last year, at President Trump's urging, the Republican-led state legislature redrew congressional boundaries mid-decade to weaken Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver by extending his Kansas City-based district deep into rural, conservative territory.
A grassroots petition drive and subsequent legal challenges halted implementation of the new map. The Missouri Supreme Court ruled that any change to district lines must first be approved by voters in a public referendum, and the U.S. Supreme Court declined to intervene on Republicans' behalf. As a result, the original 2022 congressional map will appear on the November ballot, though Republicans are pursuing further legal avenues to overturn that outcome. The fight reflects broader nationwide efforts by both parties to reshape district lines mid-decade as they jockey for control of Congress.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are depicted as pursuing a mid-decade redistricting scheme to weaken a Democratic incumbent, which was blocked by courts, casting them in a manipulative light.
- Donald Trump Trump is cited as urging the redistricting effort aimed at weakening a Democratic congressman, portraying him as instigating a partisan power grab.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as the target of redistricting efforts but ultimately prevail in court, a mixed but slightly favorable outcome.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City is mentioned as the district's base affected by the redistricting dispute, a neutral factual reference.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the institutional context for the redistricting fight, without direct reputational implication.
- Missouri Missouri is the central setting of the redistricting battle, described factually as the site of political and legal conflict.
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Elections
Supreme Court blocks Missouri’s new congressional map, sending redistricting fight to voters
PN Team • 1 month ago
The U.S. Supreme Court blocked Missouri from using a Republican-drawn 2025 congressional map in November, requiring the state to instead use the map adopted in 2022. The ruling caps a monthslong dispute triggered by a national redistricting push, following mid-decade map changes in Texas and Ohio favoring Republicans and California's Democratic-leaning response. Missouri's 2025 map, passed in May, would have added a Republican-leaning seat by reshaping Kansas City's District 5, held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, and tightening District 2, held by Republican Ann Wagner.
Because primaries were held under the 2025 map while the general election reverts to 2022 lines, Republicans Bob Onder and Rick Brattin have sued, arguing voters' rights are harmed; the Eighth Circuit was set to hear arguments. Missouri's Supreme Court separately found Secretary of State Denny Hoskins in contempt for trying to use the blocked map, though he avoided sanction after complying. Voters will ultimately decide the matter through Proposition A, a ballot measure asking whether to adopt the 2025 map or keep the 2022 lines, with implications for other states' redistricting plans.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Missouri Missouri is central to the redistricting dispute, portrayed as embroiled in legal and political conflict.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican Party's redistricting push was blocked by the Supreme Court, a mild setback to its political goals.
- California California mentioned factually as a comparison point in the national redistricting context.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic Party mentioned as beneficiary/context in redistricting fight without strong positive or negative framing.
- Kansas City, Missouri Kansas City is referenced as the district reshaped by the blocked map, a neutral factual mention.
- Ohio Ohio mentioned factually as part of the broader national redistricting trend.
- Texas Texas mentioned factually as part of the broader national redistricting trend.
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Elections
Missouri marks 26 years since Gov. Mel Carnahan’s fatal plane crash
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Friday marks 26 years since the Oct. 16, 2000, plane crash that killed Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan, his son Randy and campaign advisor Chris Sifford. The Cessna, piloted by Randy, went down near Hillsboro, Missouri, en route to a campaign event as Carnahan — then the Democratic Senate nominee challenging incumbent Republican John Ashcroft — campaigned in the race's final weeks. A 2002 NTSB brief attributed the crash to spatial disorientation, attitude indicator problems and poor weather. Lt. Gov. Roger B. Wilson was sworn in as governor two days later once the deaths were confirmed, and memorials drew thousands to Jefferson City, including President Clinton and Vice President Gore.
With the ballot deadline already passed, Wilson pledged to appoint Carnahan's widow, Jean, to the Senate if her late husband won. On Nov. 7, 2000, Carnahan defeated Ashcroft, becoming the first candidate to win a U.S. Senate seat posthumously. Jean Carnahan was sworn in on Jan. 3, 2001, cementing the family's legacy of public service.
Sources:
Sentiment
- United States Senate The Senate seat is central to the historic posthumous election and Jean Carnahan's subsequent appointment, a mildly notable institutional mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned factually as Carnahan's party affiliation with no particular evaluative framing.
- Missouri Missouri is the setting for the historic events described, a neutral contextual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned factually as Ashcroft's party, with no particular reputational framing.
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