California’s 6th Congressional District House Race 2026
Prediction markets are tracking the 2026 general election for California’s 6th Congressional District, covering the Sacramento-area seat. Traders on both Kalshi and Polymarket have opened markets asking which party — and in some cases which specific candidate — will win the House seat.
Why It Matters
Control of the U.S. House of Representatives often comes down to a relatively small number of competitive districts, and California’s 6th has been a battleground in recent election cycles. The outcome here could factor into the broader fight for the House majority in 2026, making it a district that both national parties are likely to invest resources in.
Beyond the party-level contest, some markets also break out individual named candidates, allowing traders to speculate on primary outcomes and the eventual general-election matchup as the field takes shape.
How the Markets Are Structured
- Kalshi’s “CA-06 House winner?” event includes separate contracts for the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and other/alternate outcomes.
- Polymarket’s “CA-06 House Election Winner” event mirrors this structure while also listing individual candidates as the primary field develops.
As candidate filings, primary results, and campaign developments unfold, these markets are expected to update to reflect the changing shape of the race. This page will be updated as new information becomes available.
Related terms
-
Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
Primary election -
United States midterm election -
Democrat Party (epithet) -
Sacramento, California -
Politics of California -
Sacramento County, California -
Kevin Kiley (politician) -
Richard Pan -
California's 6th congressional district
Total Volume
$209.6k
Kalshi $71.9k · Polymarket $137.7k
Leading Market
Richard Pan
Kalshi 94% · Polymarket 84%
Richard Pan Volume
$62.7k
Kalshi $18.2k · Polymarket $44.5k
Richard Pan 24h Change
-4.00%
Kalshi +0.40% · Polymarket -4.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard PanDemocratic Party | 94.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Richard Pan on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Richard Pan on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Kevin KileyIndependent | 5.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Kevin Kiley on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 10.0¢ | 5% | , trade Kevin Kiley on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard PanDemocratic Party | $62,681.82 | ||
| Kevin KileyIndependent | $116,230.60 | ||
| Republican Party | $30,687.37 | No market |