Who Will Win the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election

The list of Republicans weighing 2028 presidential bids is growing as President Trump's approval ratings decline and Democrats appear favored for a strong showing in the November midterms. Sen. John Kennedy recently joined a field that already includes former Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and possibly Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Some hopefuls are positioning themselves to inherit the MAGA base, including Donald Trump Jr., who denies interest but polls strongly among hypothetical candidates. Others, like Christie, are distancing themselves from Trump's legacy, arguing Vice President J.D. Vance would be hurt by association with an unpopular administration.

Polling shows Vance still leads the GOP field but has lost ground, with Trump Jr. gaining support. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also draw notable backing, while Nikki Haley says she won't run. Cruz and Vance have publicly sparred, with most contenders waiting on midterm results before deciding.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom capped a multi-state "take it back tour" with eight public events across South Carolina, plus stops in Alabama and North Carolina, intensifying speculation about a 2028 Democratic presidential run. In North Carolina, Newsom campaigned for U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper in Charlotte and rallied Labor Day weekend crowds in Monroe, urging Democrats to focus on the 2026 midterms rather than 2028. He accused Trump of ruthlessness, corruption and attempting to "nationalize" elections through mail-in voting restrictions, telling supporters it's time to "fight fire with fire." Newsom told the Associated Press a 2028 decision could come before year's end.

Voters and strategists increasingly frame California itself as Newsom's central liability, with critics warning his state's liberal image could hurt him against rivals like Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans, including North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley and local officials, mocked the visits with "Wrong Coast" signs and accused him of trying to "California" their states. Newsom's team counters that his progressive record on health care, wages and climate could be an asset in a Democratic primary. South Carolina, hosting Democrats' first 2028 primary, remains a key early proving ground alongside hopefuls like Cory Booker.

Minnesota voters went to the polls August 11 in Democratic primaries pitting moderate Rep. Angie Craig against progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the open Senate seat left by retiring Sen. Tina Smith. Flanagan drew backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ilhan Omar and Smith herself, while Craig secured establishment support from Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Buttigieg and Gwen Walz, and roughly doubled Flanagan's fundraising. The race centered on Craig's contested vote for the Laken Riley Act, which she has since disavowed, immigration enforcement after federal agents killed two protesters during "Operation Metro Surge," and clashing views on Israel and AIPAC funding. On the Republican side, Michele Tafoya leads a fundraising-heavy field including party-endorsed Adam Schwarze and Royce White, while Amy Klobuchar faces minimal opposition for governor against Republicans Mike Lindell (Trump-endorsed), Lisa Demuth and Kendall Qualls, as the GOP seeks its first statewide win since 2006.

Craig's departure also triggered a six-way Democratic primary for her open 2nd Congressional District seat. The results will help determine whether Democrats lean moderate or progressive heading into the midterms and test Republican hopes of ending their statewide losing streak. Prediction markets, which favored Flanagan and Craig-adjacent dynamics entering Election Day, are watching outcomes as an early signal for the broader 2026 fight over Congress and Minnesota's state government.

At the Texas Republican convention in Dallas, GOP leaders and candidates leaned on new federal tax breaks — including deductions for tips and overtime and an extension of 2017 tax cuts — as evidence President Trump and the party have helped working families. At the same time, they blamed Democrats and the Biden administration for high grocery and gas prices, largely avoiding discussion of Trump's tariffs and the Iran conflict, which polls show voters associate with rising costs. Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP's U.S. Senate nominee, touted his own tax proposals while attacking Democratic opponent James Talarico's tax record. Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick emphasized low taxes and a strong state economy without addressing affordability concerns.

Democrats, including state party chair Kendall Scudder and national committee officials, used the convention to argue Republicans have driven up costs while favoring corporations and the wealthy. The dueling narratives underscore how affordability could shape competitive Texas races this midterm cycle.

Texas' open U.S. Senate race has narrowed to a close contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin, with Libertarian Ted Brown also on the ballot. The seat is being vacated by John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton. Polls show the race within the margin of error, giving Talarico a slight edge as Democrats seek their first statewide Texas win since 1994.

Paxton, attorney general since 2015 and a longtime conservative legal combatant against federal policy, has backing from President Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz and Senate GOP leadership but did not respond to candidate questionnaires. Talarico, serving his fourth House term, has set state fundraising records and drawn endorsements from labor and civil rights groups. Brown, a longtime Libertarian activist, rounds out the field.

Early voting runs Oct. 19 through Oct. 30, with Election Day on Nov. 3. The Senate race shares the ballot with Texas' gubernatorial contest between Gov. Greg Abbott and state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. With the Senate split 53-47 in Republicans' favor, a Democratic upset in Texas would ease their path toward a majority, making the race a closely watched national bellwether.

Sen. Darline Graham defeated Rep. Ralph Norman 52% to 48% in South Carolina's Republican runoff for the Senate seat held by her brother Lindsey Graham for 23 years before his death in July. Gov. Henry McMaster had appointed her to fill the seat temporarily, and President Trump endorsed her bid for a full term, holding a tele-rally and headlining a Myrtle Beach rally while directing more than $800,000 from his super PAC, MAGA Inc., toward her campaign. Norman, a five-term congressman who largely self-funded his campaign and drew roughly $700,000 in outside spending tied to Nikki Haley, conceded but noted lingering bitterness among his supporters over Trump's involvement. Graham had weathered criticism after admitting during an August debate she was "not that informed on national security," shifting her campaign's focus to domestic issues and her brother's legacy. She now advances to face Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, in the November 3 general election for the seat, considered a safe Republican hold.

The result, alongside a narrow Trump-backed win in Oklahoma's gubernatorial runoff, reinforces the president's continued sway in GOP primaries despite recent Trump-endorsed losses elsewhere, including Wyoming and Florida.

At the Texas GOP's midterm convention in Dallas, Republican candidates and officials credited President Trump's tax policies—including new breaks for tips, overtime and the extension of 2017 tax cuts—for helping working families, while blaming Democrats and the Biden administration for high grocery and gas prices. Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP Senate nominee, attacked Democratic opponent James Talarico's tax record, while U.S. House candidates Carlos and Monica De La Cruz emphasized their working-class backgrounds and GOP tax relief. Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick framed the election as a choice between conservatism and "socialism," touting Texas's low-tax economy without addressing rising costs.

Democrats countered throughout the convention, arguing Republicans, tariffs and the Iran conflict have driven up costs for consumers while benefiting corporations and the wealthy. Talarico, Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin proposed raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. The clashing narratives over affordability and economic credit are expected to shape Texas's competitive midterm races, particularly in battleground U.S. House districts.

A trade dispute between the United States and Canada is intensifying after talks over a new deal collapsed, with the Trump administration imposing tariffs as high as 50% on goods including hockey sticks, flags, and building materials. Canada responded with retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20 billion in U.S. goods, targeting sectors like appliances, steel, dairy, and electronics, effective September 8.

Pennsylvania, whose $13.4 billion in annual exports make Canada its top trading partner, is caught in the fallout: about $2 billion of its exports, including aluminum, lumber, and vehicles, face steeper tariffs. Analysts say the state wasn't deliberately targeted but will still absorb significant costs, likely passed on to consumers. The dispute adds economic uncertainty ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, with Pennsylvania's competitive House races and its gubernatorial contest between Democratic incumbent Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity both drawing attention to tariff policy as a political flashpoint.

State Rep. David Morales, 27, a democratic socialist endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna, defeated incumbent Mayor Brett Smiley, 47, in Providence's Democratic primary by a 53%-48% margin, marking the first time a sitting Providence mayor has lost a primary. Morales is heavily favored over Republican Dave Talan in November and would become the city's youngest-ever mayor if elected. Smiley had touted falling crime and the city's regained control over its schools, while Morales built his campaign around affordable housing, rent stabilization, and other progressive policies like social housing and housing cooperatives.

The race became entangled with Israel-related politics: Smiley, who converted to Judaism in 2024, drew criticism from Morales over his role in a pro-Israel advocacy summit, while Smiley opposed a binding November ballot measure — which Providence voters will decide as the largest U.S. city to do so — that could restrict city investment in companies linked to Israel. Smiley also faced backlash over vetoing a rent-control ordinance Morales supported. Providence's police union has voiced unease about Morales, citing his past calls to defund police and warning of possible officer departures, though Morales says he wants to work with law enforcement. Rhode Island Gov. Daniel McKee also lost his primary the same night.

South Carolina Republicans returned to the polls Tuesday to pick a nominee for the Senate seat long held by the late Lindsey Graham, who died in July after winning renomination in June. Sen. Darline Graham, appointed to fill her brother's term and backed by President Trump and Sen. Tim Scott, faced Rep. Ralph Norman in a runoff after neither cleared a majority in the Aug. 11 primary; third-place finisher Rep. Russell Fry endorsed Graham. The winner faces Democrat Annie Andrews in the fall.

In Georgia's 13th Congressional District near Atlanta, Democrats Everton Blair and Marcye Scott, daughter of late Rep. David Scott, competed in a runoff to serve the remainder of Scott's term after topping a five-candidate field in July. Neither is seeking the full term beginning in 2027; that contest will pit Democratic state Rep. Jasmine Clark against Republican Jonathan Chavez in November. Both races drew attention as tests of turnout and party strength ahead of the 2026 midterms, now 70 days off.