2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee

California's Democratic presidential primary is set for March 3, Super Tuesday, but the state's outcome will likely hinge on results from Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, which vote earlier. Kamala Harris's exit from the race last week has fueled speculation about who benefits, but strategists note she had only modest California support (7-8% in late-2019 polling), with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren leading, followed by Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg. Analysts expect California voters and donors to wait and see how candidates perform elsewhere before committing, since mail voting begins February 3, the same day as the Iowa caucuses.

Democratic strategists point out California has a history of backing eventual losers, including Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in 2008. Michael Bloomberg, skipping the four early states, is banking on a stumble by frontrunners to gain traction on Super Tuesday. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who endorsed Harris, is being courted by rival campaigns but isn't expected to endorse soon. Harris's network of California donors and fundraisers is now considered up for grabs among the remaining candidates.

Massachusetts voters headed to the polls Tuesday in a primary highlighted by a competitive Democratic Senate contest between incumbent Sen. Ed Markey, 80, and U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton, 47. The race reverses a familiar dynamic in this year's Democratic primaries, with progressives Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez backing the incumbent over the more moderate challenger. Markey held a large fundraising advantage and led recent polls by double digits; Moulton, a Marine veteran and 2020 presidential candidate, drew support from The Boston Globe's editorial board, New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill, and VoteVets. Moulton has also faced scrutiny over past comments on transgender athletes, which he has since apologized for. The primary winner will face Republican John Deaton in November.

Similar generational clashes played out down-ballot: progressive attorney Patrick Roath, who has spent more than $1 million on his campaign, challenged longtime Rep. Stephen Lynch in the 8th District, while a crowded six-way Democratic field, including Dan Koh and Tram Nguyen, competed to succeed Moulton in the 6th District. Other notable races include a Republican gubernatorial primary between Mike Minogue and Brian Shortsleeve, and contested district attorney races in Norfolk and Suffolk counties. Given the state's heavy Democratic lean, primary winners are strongly favored in November, with results shaping the competitive landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear campaigned across South Carolina's Orangeburg and Charleston counties on Oct. 2, stumping for local Democratic candidates while fueling speculation about a possible 2028 presidential bid. He framed his pitch around having won two elections as a Democratic governor in a heavily Republican state, arguing liberal candidates need not avoid contentious issues such as transgender rights or diversity policies to win. Beshear said he has vetoed anti-diversity, anti-abortion-rights and anti-LGBTQ+ bills in Kentucky and urged Democrats to spend most of their time on bread-and-butter issues like roads, schools and healthcare, while speaking about hot-button topics in plain language rather than "advocacy speak."

He also called for constitutional changes banning partisan redistricting, imposing congressional and Supreme Court term limits, and tightening campaign finance rules. Beshear's visit came as South Carolina Sen. Mark Kelly and Rep. Ro Khanna also campaigned in the state the same weekend, ahead of its first-in-the-nation status on the 2028 Democratic primary calendar.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), term-limited and widely viewed as a likely 2028 presidential contender, began a three-day swing through South Carolina and North Carolina, his fourth visit to the early primary state. State Democrats say the trip serves a dual purpose: giving Newsom exposure to primary voters while boosting volunteer energy and attention for state legislative races ahead of a critical election roughly 60 days away. Newsom is campaigning in more than 10 counties, including six that President Trump carried in 2024, focusing on competitive state House districts in the Lowcountry region.

Democrats say they are fielding candidates in all 124 state House districts for the first time in about 50 years, and are using visits from potential 2028 contenders like Newsom, Andy Beshear, and Wes Moore as surrogate appearances to energize grassroots organizing. South Carolina Republicans dismissed the visit, arguing Newsom's record makes him an unappealing messenger for the state's voters.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton toured the Youngstown Business Incubator and rallied in Liberty, stressing ties to Mahoning and Trumbull counties ahead of Election Day against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Acton has repeatedly addressed a Ramaswamy-backed ad featuring her estranged mother, calling her a liar and alleging mental health issues; Gov. Mike DeWine called it exploitative. Both candidates are closing with pitches on Ohio's affordability crisis, with Ramaswamy touting his business background and property-tax executive orders, and Acton emphasizing public-service experience, a working families tax cut, and school funding.

Ramaswamy has self-funded and outspent Acton nearly $80 million to $34 million overall, though Acton has outraised him recently; both have shattered Ohio's gubernatorial fundraising record, and neither has held elected office before. Democrats are banking on a late push, including a Cleveland rally with Barack Obama and expanded early voting, as prediction markets show Acton favored heading into Election Day.

Three Brothers Bakery in Houston has revived its novelty "cookie poll," letting customers cast informal votes by purchasing cookies decorated as candidates in the Texas U.S. Senate race. As of mid-October, state Rep. James Talarico has sold nearly 2,000 cookies, far outpacing Attorney General Ken Paxton and the bakery's gingerbread mascot, Gingy, with more than 2,200 cookies sold total across its four locations.

The bakery has run these polls since 2011, and its track record predicting real election outcomes is mixed. It correctly picked Trump's wins in 2016 and 2024, but missed on Obama in 2012, Biden in 2020 and Greg Abbott's 2022 reelection over Beto O'Rourke, each time favoring the eventual loser. While lighthearted, the poll has drawn attention as a local cultural barometer amid heightened interest in the Talarico-Paxton contest ahead of November's election, even as its predictive value remains largely anecdotal.

President Donald Trump traveled to Houston to headline a Republican National Committee fundraiser for Ken Paxton's U.S. Senate campaign, marking his first in-person push for the Texas attorney general's bid against Democrat James Talarico. The visit comes as recent polling, including a University of Texas survey, shows Talarico opening a narrow lead after trailing two months earlier. Sen. Ted Cruz has publicly warned that Talarico has a "real chance" of flipping the seat, while Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the GOP primary to Paxton, has criticized Paxton as a lazy, uncompelling candidate.

The race highlights a fundraising gap: Talarico has vastly outspent Paxton on advertising, though GOP ad spending recently overtook Democrats' for the first time. National Republican super PACs, including the Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc., have so far held back major spending on Paxton's behalf, and conservative legal figure Leonard Leo has directed money to other Senate races instead. A pro-Paxton group has begun attack ads against Talarico, while Talarico unveiled a healthcare proposal backed by Mark Cuban. The contest is viewed as a key test of GOP strength in Texas and could affect Senate control.

President Donald Trump is set to rally in Youngstown, a onetime Democratic stronghold that swung sharply toward him over the past decade amid the collapse of regional steel manufacturing. Republicans, including Sen. Jon Husted, see the visit as crucial to motivating MAGA voters ahead of Ohio's statewide races, with strategists warning that even a small drop in Trump-aligned turnout could cost the GOP. Mahoning County backed Barack Obama by a landslide in 2012 before flipping to Trump, who won it by double digits in 2024.

Democrats, led by Sen. Sherrod Brown and gubernatorial hopeful Amy Acton, argue that rising costs for gas, groceries and utilities have eroded Trump's appeal among working-class voters who once saw him as an outsider fighting for them. Local Democrats accuse him of breaking promises on affordability and jobs, while Republicans counter that falling unemployment and policies like ending taxes on tips show progress. Both sides view the Mahoning Valley as a bellwether for whether Trump's coalition can still be mobilized now that he is the incumbent rather than the challenger.

California advocacy groups battling Gov. Gavin Newsom over labor rules, artificial intelligence regulation, transportation funding, and cap-and-trade policy are increasingly pressuring him outside California, betting that his likely 2028 presidential ambitions give them new leverage. Transit advocates have run newspaper ads in South Carolina and Nevada targeting Newsom-backed climate program changes, a business group put up a Times Square billboard attacking his record, and labor leaders have warned they will confront him on the campaign trail over AI and workplace protections if he does not act. Labor leaders from Iowa and North Carolina have publicly said they will meet him at events like the Iowa State Fair unless he negotiates on AI and worker protections.

Strategists say the tactic aims less at swaying votes now than at forcing unresolved Sacramento fights into a national narrative before rivals or opposition campaigns can weaponize them. California Labor Federation President Lorena Gonzalez says talks with Newsom's office have intensified, including after labor allies confronted him during a Texas trip, and that he now discusses AI as a threat to workers. Newsom's office insists out-of-state pressure campaigns do not affect his decisions, though analysts remain split on whether the tactic builds his name recognition or exposes real vulnerabilities as his term nears its end.

Multiple Louisiana political figures are signaling possible interest in the 2028 presidential race. Former New Orleans Mayor Marc Morial, now head of the National Urban League, told an Oct. 3 panel at the March On! Festival that he is "thinking about running." He appeared alongside former U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu, who encouraged him, and her brother, former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, who has said since April he will decide after the midterms or early next year. U.S. Sen. John Kennedy also raised the possibility on NBC's "Meet the Press," suggesting he could do better than other potential contenders.

None of the three has formed a campaign team, PAC, or fundraising operation, but Kennedy and Landrieu have both published bestselling books and are actively campaigning for allies nationally. Louisiana has never produced a sitting-president nominee with strong local roots; past bids by Buddy Roemer and Bobby Jindal fizzled early. The 2028 field remains wide open on both sides, with JD Vance, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz atop GOP speculation, and Democrats awaiting word from Kamala Harris.