Which Party Will Win the 2028 Presidential Election

Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock drew on his history as senior pastor of Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist Church during an Oct. 13 stop in Columbia, South Carolina, telling Democrats and clergy they could not afford to lose the "fight between hope and despair." He criticized Republican cuts to food stamps and Medicaid eligibility, invoked civil rights history, and urged support for Senate candidate Annie Andrews.

Warnock plans to return to South Carolina this weekend to campaign with Andrews and gubernatorial nominee Jermaine Johnson ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms and early voting. His visits to South Carolina, along with earlier stops in New Hampshire and Nevada — the early presidential primary states — have renewed speculation about a 2028 presidential bid. Warnock downplayed the talk, saying he is focused on 2026 and retaking a Senate majority. Other Democrats eyeing national profiles, including Rahm Emanuel, Andy Beshear, Mark Kelly, Ro Khanna, Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg, have also recently visited the early-voting state.

Florida Republicans showed a marked shift in voting behavior ahead of this year's primary election compared to the last open governor's race in 2018. State Division of Elections data show about 422,000 Republicans voted by mail this cycle, down from over 621,000 in 2018, while in-person early voting jumped from roughly 300,000 to nearly 450,000. Democrats' habits changed less, roughly matching 2018 patterns for both mail and early in-person voting.

Analysts point to President Trump's repeated criticism of mail voting as a likely driver of the GOP shift, along with a 2021 Florida law requiring voters to request mail ballots each election cycle rather than every other cycle. Nearly 2 million Floridians had voted early or by mail as of Monday, with Republicans slightly outnumbering Democrats. The contested four-way GOP gubernatorial primary, featuring Byron Donalds, Jay Collins, Paul Renner, and James Fishback, is fueling Republican turnout, while Democrats face a less competitive race led by David Jolly. Experts say the net effect on overall turnout remains uncertain.

Philadelphia's three city commissioners — two Democrats and one Republican — say the city is prepared to run secure, accurate elections despite years of unfounded fraud claims from President Trump, who has repeatedly singled out the city as corrupt and pushed for federal intervention in elections. Officials note Pennsylvania law requires mail ballots to be processed only starting election morning, which slows results but doesn't indicate fraud; past prosecuted cases involved only a handful of ballots. Commissioners Lisa Deeley and Seth Bluestein say they've faced death threats since 2020 but remain focused on building public trust, training poll workers, and preparing contingency plans should federal agents attempt to appear at polling places, which state law restricts.

Missouri's 4th Congressional District race pits two-term Republican incumbent Mark Alford, a former TV anchor serving on House Armed Services and Appropriations committees, against Democrat Jordan Herrera, an Air Force veteran and Missouri assistant attorney general, and Libertarian Thomas Holbrook. Alford campaigns on an America First platform, border enforcement and reduced federal spending, while Herrera emphasizes economic security, healthcare access and limiting government regulation of personal life. Holbrook opposes gerrymandering and tariffs. The district's boundaries remain contested: the 2022 map, used for this election, covers west-central Missouri, while a newer 2025 map used for the primary would shift Kansas City into the district instead of District 5.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker spent a day campaigning across South Carolina, headlining the state NAACP's annual convention and stumping for Democratic candidates including Senate nominee Annie Andrews and gubernatorial nominee Jermaine Johnson. Pritzker urged Democrats to be more combative toward President Trump and Republicans, saying the party has been "too dainty" and "too nice," and calling for a "team fight" posture ahead of the midterms.

Pritzker, who faces reelection in Illinois next month, declined to say whether he's running for president in 2028, framing the trip as support for down-ballot Democrats. Still, his appearance before Black voters in the first-in-the-nation primary state fueled speculation about his national ambitions. He also voiced concern that federal immigration enforcement could be used to intimidate voters in competitive states like South Carolina, and touted his financial support for Southern Democratic candidates, including a $1 million donation to Texas gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa.

The list of Republicans weighing 2028 presidential bids is growing as President Trump's approval ratings decline and Democrats appear favored for a strong showing in the November midterms. Sen. John Kennedy recently joined a field that already includes former Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and possibly Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Some hopefuls are positioning themselves to inherit the MAGA base, including Donald Trump Jr., who denies interest but polls strongly among hypothetical candidates. Others, like Christie, are distancing themselves from Trump's legacy, arguing Vice President J.D. Vance would be hurt by association with an unpopular administration.

Polling shows Vance still leads the GOP field but has lost ground, with Trump Jr. gaining support. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also draw notable backing, while Nikki Haley says she won't run. Cruz and Vance have publicly sparred, with most contenders waiting on midterm results before deciding.

President Trump has repeatedly downplayed reports of deteriorating conditions aboard the USS Lincoln and other Navy vessels deployed amid the ongoing war with Iran, calling the accounts "fake news" and suggesting sailors haven't been out "nearly long enough." The response has drawn criticism and could carry political consequences in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, a Tidewater-region seat with one of the country's largest active-duty military populations, heavily Navy-affiliated.

Democrat Elaine Luria, a Navy veteran challenging Republican Representative Jen Kiggans in a rematch, says she plans to make Trump's comments a central campaign issue, arguing they reflect a broader carelessness toward service members and insufficient GOP oversight of the military. Kiggans has blamed media "misinformation" for the controversy, echoing her earlier dismissal of concerns about the carrier Gerald R. Ford. Local Republicans concede the prolonged war exposes the administration to criticism, even as they downplay the political risk among military families.

New York Democrats have filed a complaint with the State Board of Elections alleging that President Trump's August 14 visit to a Nassau County police training facility improperly used public resources to boost Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman's campaign. State Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs argues that Blakeman, as Nassau County Executive, deployed county funds, facilities and law enforcement personnel to stage what amounted to a partisan rally at the county-owned David Mack Center for Training and Intelligence.

At the event, billed by the White House as a crime-statistics announcement, Trump, U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, and GOP congressional candidates praised Blakeman and criticized Democratic rivals, with Trump predicting Blakeman would win. Jacobs wants the state board to assess whether the resources used constitute an improper in-kind campaign contribution and to consider penalties. Blakeman's campaign dismissed the complaint and blamed Gov. Kathy Hochul. A separate Hatch Act complaint against Blanche, filed by watchdog group Public Citizen, was rejected as baseless by the Justice Department.

Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District has emerged as one of the most closely watched races that could help decide control of the U.S. House next year. Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden faces a rematch against Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke, who lost to him by roughly 11,000 votes in 2024. Analysts describe the campaign as increasingly negative, with both sides now focused on attacking each other's records rather than introducing themselves to voters.

President Trump looms over the contest even though he is not on the ballot. Van Orden has embraced Trump, saying he would welcome him back to the district, breaking from Republicans elsewhere trying to distance themselves from the president amid his low approval ratings. Cooke, who calls herself a moderate Democrat, is appealing to voters who have split tickets in the past, arguing Republican control of Congress and the White House makes the GOP accountable. The race is one of several competitive midterm contests nationally that will shape House control.

An opinion piece in the Star Tribune has sharpened a political clash in Minnesota ahead of upcoming elections, centered on how state leaders address both local fraud scandals and their connections to President Donald Trump. DFL Attorney General Keith Ellison, running for reelection, has directly tied his Republican opponent, corporate lawyer Ron Schutz, to Trump in campaign messaging, criticizing Schutz for saying he would seek White House support. Trump himself recently weighed in on Minnesota politics, endorsing Republican U.S. Senate candidate Michele Tafoya.

The commentary argues that while fraud in Minnesota's social services programs is a legitimate concern — one acknowledged by DFL figures including Senator Amy Klobuchar and Governor Tim Walz — Republicans face scrutiny for condemning state-level fraud while aligning with Trump. The piece frames this contrast as a central theme likely to shape Minnesota's competitive races, including the attorney general and Senate contests, as candidates position themselves on fraud accountability and their relationships with the president.