NY-17 House winner?
Total Volume
$3.2m
Kalshi $679.7k · Polymarket $2.5m
Leading Market
Cale Conley
Kalshi 64% · Polymarket 62%
Cale Conley Volume
$1.1m
Kalshi $213.6k · Polymarket $856.7k
Cale Conley 24h Change
+1.00%
Kalshi +1.00% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale ConleyDemocratic Party | 64.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
62.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Michael LawlerRepublican Party | — | — | — | 39.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Mike LawlerRepublican Party | 38.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Down-ballot New York Democrats distance themselves from Hochul ahead of midterms
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Several New York Democrats running in competitive House races are putting distance between themselves and Gov. Kathy Hochul weeks before Election Day. Rep. Tom Suozzi skipped a Hochul campaign stop on Long Island, citing a scheduling conflict, while Rep. Laura Gillen attended. In New York's 17th District, challenger Cait Conley was caught on video agreeing with GOP Rep. Mike Lawler that "Hochul has got to go," later calling Hochul to smooth things over. Blake Gendebien, running in the 21st District, declined to say if he'd support Hochul. Recent Siena polling shows Hochul's favorability underwater and her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman narrowing in suburban and upstate areas, reviving concerns about coattail effects seen in 2022.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Kathy Hochul Hochul is portrayed as a liability with underwater favorability and being avoided by her own party's candidates.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates distancing themselves from the party's own governor signals internal division and political weakness.
- New York (state) New York state is the setting for the political distancing story, reflecting mild negative political dynamics without direct reputational harm to the state itself.
- Republican Party (United States) A Republican figure is referenced favorably in context of criticizing Hochul but the party itself plays only a tangential role.
- Mike Lawler Lawler is mentioned neutrally as the GOP figure whose anti-Hochul comment Conley agreed with.
- Long Island Long Island is mentioned simply as the location of a campaign stop, with no reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned only as context for the competitive races, without direct reputational implication.
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Elections
Rockland GOP’s largest-ever donation draws scrutiny ahead of competitive Lawler-Conley race
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
The Rockland County Republican Committee received a $138,000 contribution from businessman Jack Goldenberg this year, the largest single donation in the committee's records over two decades, according to state campaign finance filings. The donation lands in a pivotal election cycle, as Rockland County anchors one of the nation's most closely watched House races between Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who also chairs the county GOP, and Democratic challenger Cait Conley.
Goldenberg has limited political giving history but previously donated six figures to national Republican committees. His business dealings have drawn legal scrutiny, including a 2020 wrongful-termination ruling against his company and a Portuguese investigation into alleged market manipulation tied to his pharmaceutical firm, Chartwell Pharmaceuticals. A local Democratic candidate has also tied Goldenberg to a contested warehouse development, which he denies involvement in.
The flap underscores escalating money battles in the Lawler-Conley contest, where Conley reported raising $5 million last quarter and outside groups have already spent more than $20 million on advertising, with Republicans currently holding the spending edge.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mike Lawler As county GOP chair, Lawler is linked to a controversial donation tied to a donor with legal troubles, creating mild reputational scrutiny.
- Republican Party (United States) The county GOP's large donation from a legally controversial donor draws scrutiny, mildly reflecting on the party.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party affiliation of challenger Cait Conley without further characterization.
- Rockland County, New York Rockland County is the central location of the story, described factually as the site of the contested race and GOP donation.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned factually as the body the contested House race pertains to.
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Politics
Hasidic leaders from New York, New Jersey meet Trump, Vance in rare White House summit
PN Team • 2 months ago
A delegation of Hasidic Jewish community leaders from New York and New Jersey met with President Trump and Vice President JD Vance in the Oval Office on Thursday, marking the first such gathering at the White House in nearly five decades. The visit, organized by the White House Faith Office under Paula White-Cain, included representatives from the Satmar communities in Kiryas Joel, Lakewood and Williamsburg, along with Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents Orthodox and Hasidic communities in Rockland County. Grand Rebbe Aaron Teitelbaum of Kiryas Joel recited a traditional blessing reserved for kings and presented Trump with a leather-embossed copy of the prayer.
The meeting underscores Trump's strong standing among Orthodox Jewish voters, who backed him at the highest rate for a Republican since the 1980s in 2024. Several senior administration officials are Jewish, and Trump has closely aligned with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on countering Iran. The Satmar movement's theological opposition to Jewish sovereignty before the Messiah's arrival added a notable undertone to the encounter with a president who calls himself the most pro-Israel in US history.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as hosting a historic, respectful summit and enjoying strong support among Orthodox Jewish voters.
- New Jersey New Jersey is referenced as home to some of the represented Hasidic communities without further evaluative content.
- New York (state) New York is mentioned as the origin of the delegation without additional reputational framing.
- Rockland County, New York Rockland County is noted as the district represented by Rep. Mike Lawler in a neutral context.
- United States The United States is referenced generally in relation to Trump's pro-Israel stance without direct reputational implication.
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Politics
New York officials press Washington for AI regulation amid growing safety concerns
PN Team • 1 month ago
New York political leaders are calling on the federal government to act quickly on artificial intelligence oversight, following warnings from AI lab CEOs about potential risks from unchecked development. Mayor Zohran Mamdani called recent AI warnings "incredibly alarming" and said the city would explore protective measures, while Gov. Kathy Hochul urged Washington to set national standards prioritizing public safety over the race to build more powerful AI systems. President Trump has dismissed such concerns as a "hoax" and opposes new regulation, citing competition with China.
New York City and State have already taken steps, including the RAISE Act, a one-year data center moratorium, and a ban on AI chatbots for young students, but a state comptroller audit and a city public advocate report both found more oversight is needed. The debate has also become a flashpoint in competitive congressional races, with data center policy emerging as an attack line, and Assemblymember Alex Bores launching a multimillion-dollar push to unify Democrats around AI regulation.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed dismissing AI safety concerns as a "hoax," casting him as obstructive on a public safety issue.
- Kathy Hochul Hochul is portrayed positively as urging national safety standards over unchecked AI development.
- Zohran Mamdani Mamdani is depicted as proactively responsive to AI risks, calling for protective measures.
- New York (state) New York State is portrayed as proactive on AI regulation with concrete measures like the RAISE Act.
- State governments of the United States State governments, including New York, are shown taking proactive regulatory steps on AI.
- New York City New York City is shown taking steps like banning AI chatbots for students, though oversight gaps remain noted.
- Democratic Party (United States) Assemblymember Bores is working to unify Democrats around AI regulation, a mildly proactive but factual mention.
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Elections
Maine Democrat Jared Golden Endorses GOP Rep. Mike Lawler
PN Team • 1 month ago
Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), a retiring moderate who has often broken with his party, endorsed Republican Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) in a Monday op-ed published in The Journal News. Lawler is facing a competitive reelection race against Democrat Cait Conley in a swing district considered pivotal to Democrats' chances of retaking the House majority in November.
Golden praised Lawler for backing legislation that benefits Maine's lobster industry by delaying certain environmental regulations, despite the bill offering Lawler no political upside with his own constituents. Golden framed the endorsement as a statement about the value of bipartisanship, urging voters everywhere to support lawmakers willing to work across party lines. The cross-party endorsement is notable given the high stakes of the House battle, where control could hinge on a handful of competitive districts like Lawler's.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mike Lawler Lawler receives a favorable cross-party endorsement praising his bipartisan legislative work benefiting Maine's lobster industry.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is mentioned as Lawler's party in a neutral, factual context.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is mentioned as the party Golden belongs to and broke with, a neutral factual reference.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned as the chamber whose majority control is at stake, a neutral factual reference.
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Climate
Early Nor’easter Knocks Out Power, Floods Roads Across Northeast
PN Team • 1 month ago
A powerful early-season nor'easter battered the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend of Sept. 25-28, prompting states of emergency in New York (Long Island, New York City, Westchester County) and eight New Jersey counties under Govs. Kathy Hochul and Mikie Sherrill. The storm brought tropical-storm-force winds up to 70 mph, coastal flooding, and heavy rain from Massachusetts Bay to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, submerging major roadways on Long Island and in Queens under as much as two feet of water.
More than 130,000 utility customers lost power across the region. In Orange County, New York, utilities Orange and Rockland and Central Hudson mobilized crews to restore service, with Central Hudson citing Ulster County as hardest hit. By Sept. 28, most customers had power restored, though thousands remained without electricity. Rainfall varied widely, from just over an inch in Orange County to nearly 3.7 inches in Suffolk County, while the Neversink River saw a sharp rise in flow. Wind speeds and river levels were gradually returning to seasonal norms by Sunday.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ulster County, New York Ulster County was cited as the hardest-hit area for power outages.
- Long Island Long Island roadways were flooded under significant water, portraying negative storm impact.
- Queens Queens roadways were submerged under significant floodwater from the storm.
- New Jersey New Jersey counties declared states of emergency due to storm damage.
- Northeastern United States The Northeastern U.S. is the primary region battered by the storm with power outages and flooding.
- Westchester County, New York Westchester County is mentioned as under a state of emergency due to the storm.
- Kathy Hochul Hochul is mentioned neutrally as declaring a state of emergency in response to the storm.
- Rockland County, New York Rockland is mentioned via the utility Orange and Rockland working to restore power.
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Public Health
New York’s $1.1 billion Medicaid system overhaul hits snags in rollout
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
New York's Department of Health is encountering significant problems as it transitions more than 147,000 Medicaid and Medicare Savings Program enrollees to a new case management system. Officials say only about a third of those enrollees have been able to automatically renew coverage without extra assistance since the rollout began roughly a year ago.
The effort is part of a push to replace outdated, paper-based local processes with a centralized system run through New York State of Health, the state's public insurance marketplace. The system, built by Deloitte Consulting, was initially a $177 million contract signed in 2023 but has since grown to $1.18 billion after four amendments, including an $866 million extension. A second wave of more complex cases, including long-term care and nursing home patients, is expected to migrate between November 2027 and February 2028.
Advocates say the system has produced inappropriate coverage denials affecting elderly, blind, and disabled residents, citing inaccurate data transfers and flawed automated verification tools. State officials acknowledge ongoing issues but say they are being addressed as flagged.
Sources:
Sentiment
- New York (state) New York state is the setting for a costly, troubled Medicaid system overhaul.
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In the News
Rockland man pleads guilty to reduced charges in snow plow attack on protesters
PN Team • 2 months ago
A 65-year-old Rockland, Maine man, Michael Robinson, pleaded guilty Thursday to two misdemeanor charges for using his snow plow to inundate peaceful political demonstrators with ice, snow, and gravel during a Feb. 21, 2026 protest against the Trump administration. Under a plea deal, a felony charge of reckless conduct with a dangerous weapon and a misdemeanor driving-to-endanger charge were dismissed. Robinson faces a $600 fine if he completes a two-year deferred disposition, including mental health and anger management evaluations, a weapons ban, and 100 hours of community service; violating terms could bring up to a year in jail.
Several victims gave impact statements, describing injuries and fear of being targeted again, and urged the judge to reject the deal, calling it a politically motivated act of intimidation. Prosecutors said they were not confident they could prove the felony charge. Robinson had been free on bail since his arrest.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump The protest targeted was against the Trump administration, a tangential factual reference not directly implicating Trump himself.
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Florida Sheriff Ends License Plate Camera Program Amid Privacy Backlash
PN Team • 2 months ago
Putnam County, Florida Sheriff H.D. "Gator" DeLoach has ordered the immediate disconnection and removal of 18 automated license plate reader (ALPR) cameras, citing mounting community concerns over privacy, data sharing, and inadequate regulatory oversight. DeLoach said the technology has proven useful for locating stolen vehicles and dangerous offenders, but argued that laws governing its use have not kept pace with its rapid expansion, and that "individual liberty" must be weighed alongside public safety.
The move follows broader scrutiny of Flock Safety cameras across Florida, with Gov. Ron DeSantis warning against the state becoming a "surveillance state" and citing documented misuse cases, including officers tracking ex-partners. Neighboring St. Johns County's sheriff has taken the opposite stance, dismissing removal efforts as misinformed and comparing them to "defund the police" movements. The split reflects a growing national debate over license plate surveillance technology, following confirmed abuse cases in Georgia and South Carolina police departments.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis is portrayed favorably as warning against surveillance state overreach and protecting privacy.
- Florida Florida is the setting for a contentious debate over privacy and surveillance misuse, casting a mildly negative light on state oversight.
- Law enforcement Law enforcement's use of surveillance technology is discussed with both utility and abuse concerns noted.
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Former Tennessee Tech fraternity treasurer indicted for embezzling alumni funds
PN Team • 1 month ago
A Putnam County, Tennessee attorney, James Nathan "Jamie" Hargis, has been indicted after state investigators found he misappropriated more than $214,000 from the Kappa Sigma Alumni Association at Tennessee Tech University. Hargis served as the association's treasurer from February 2017 until his removal in September 2025. The Tennessee Comptroller of the Treasury and the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation launched the probe in October 2025 following allegations against him.
Investigators said Hargis used multiple bank accounts and a check-cashing account to divert association funds, including bank account withdrawals, undergraduate rent payments, and donations, to cover personal expenses such as sports wagering and debts. He repaid or covered roughly $160,000 in expenses, leaving about $54,000 unrecovered and several association bills unpaid. Investigators separately found he stole more than $10,000 from an estate he administered as an attorney. Hargis was indicted on one count of theft over $60,000 and one count of theft over $10,000, arrested, and released on bond. He had previously faced a separate theft charge tied to a real estate transaction.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tennessee Tennessee is mentioned as the location and jurisdiction of the case without direct reputational harm or benefit to the state itself.
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