Texas 15th Congressional District: Who Will Win the House Seat

Texas's Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Hispanic region that backed Trump in 2024 after decades as a Democratic stronghold, is showing signs of swinging back toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms. Reporting from the area finds frustration with aggressive ICE enforcement — including arrests of longtime residents without criminal records — compounding concerns over the cost of living and housing. Voters interviewed describe disillusionment with both parties rather than renewed partisan loyalty, suggesting a persistently volatile swing bloc.

Key races, including Texas's 15th and 34th Congressional Districts, illustrate Republicans distancing themselves from Trump's immigration policies while Democrats highlight ICE overreach and affordability as central campaign themes.

An ad from Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) in her competitive reelection race against Democrat Bobby Pulido featured "Deputy Garcia" of Goliad County, who criticized Pulido as "anti-cop." Reporting identified the officer as Zachary Garcia, who was fired from the Wilson County Sheriff's Office in 2024 after an internal investigation found he sexually harassed a female dispatcher and a female supervisor. Records describe him tracking the dispatcher's phone location, repeatedly calling her, and waiting outside her home in uniform after she ended their relationship. Garcia later took the same role in Goliad County, whose sheriff defended him and criticized the ad's critics as partisan.

De La Cruz's campaign says it filmed the ad before the allegations became public and stands by its content, pointing instead to Pulido's past social media criticism of police and his association with a convicted sex offender. Pulido's campaign disputes those characterizations. The race is rated a toss-up, and the dispute adds a new flashpoint to an already contentious contest.

Polling and interviews across Texas point to a significant erosion of Latino support for President Trump since his 2024 gains, driven by frustration over high prices, gas costs, and aggressive ICE enforcement that has rattled South Texas communities and economies. Strategists describe the shift as a rebuke of Republicans rather than genuine enthusiasm for Democrats, who still carry a damaged brand with many Latino voters. The trend could shape Texas's competitive U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, as well as newly redrawn majority-Hispanic congressional districts. Analysts expect Latino support for Democrats to partially rebound toward 2018 levels, but caution that voters remain persuadable and increasingly judge candidates individually rather than by party.

Republicans redrew Texas' 35th Congressional District last year hoping to flip it, setting up a San Antonio-area race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and first-time candidate whose sister is Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and Democrat Johnny Garcia, a longtime Bexar County sheriff's deputy. Both are Latino men with law enforcement or military backgrounds who blur typical partisan lines: De La Cruz echoes anti-corruption, cost-cutting messaging similar to Democrats', while Garcia, a self-described "old school Democrat," breaks with his party on border policy and some social issues.

Analysts rank the 35th as a pivotal test of the GOP's mid-decade gerrymander and of whether Latino voters continue trending Republican after 2024. The district is majority Hispanic by eligible voters but leans Republican as drawn, having favored Trump by double digits last cycle. Spending has topped $9 million combined, with Trump's political network and House Majority PAC both pouring in money. Trump is set to rally for De La Cruz in San Antonio, underscoring national Republican stakes in preserving their House majority through races like this one.

At the Texas GOP's midterm convention in Dallas, Republican candidates and officials credited President Trump's tax policies—including new breaks for tips, overtime and the extension of 2017 tax cuts—for helping working families, while blaming Democrats and the Biden administration for high grocery and gas prices. Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP Senate nominee, attacked Democratic opponent James Talarico's tax record, while U.S. House candidates Carlos and Monica De La Cruz emphasized their working-class backgrounds and GOP tax relief. Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick framed the election as a choice between conservatism and "socialism," touting Texas's low-tax economy without addressing rising costs.

Democrats countered throughout the convention, arguing Republicans, tariffs and the Iran conflict have driven up costs for consumers while benefiting corporations and the wealthy. Talarico, Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin proposed raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. The clashing narratives over affordability and economic credit are expected to shape Texas's competitive midterm races, particularly in battleground U.S. House districts.

At the Texas Republican convention in Dallas, GOP leaders and candidates leaned on new federal tax breaks — including deductions for tips and overtime and an extension of 2017 tax cuts — as evidence President Trump and the party have helped working families. At the same time, they blamed Democrats and the Biden administration for high grocery and gas prices, largely avoiding discussion of Trump's tariffs and the Iran conflict, which polls show voters associate with rising costs. Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP's U.S. Senate nominee, touted his own tax proposals while attacking Democratic opponent James Talarico's tax record. Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick emphasized low taxes and a strong state economy without addressing affordability concerns.

Democrats, including state party chair Kendall Scudder and national committee officials, used the convention to argue Republicans have driven up costs while favoring corporations and the wealthy. The dueling narratives underscore how affordability could shape competitive Texas races this midterm cycle.

One year after Gov. Greg Abbott signed Texas's mid-decade "One Big Beautiful Map," redrawing five congressional districts at President Trump's urging, polling suggests Republicans may not be reaping the gains they expected. The redistricting combined Black-majority districts in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and paired two Austin Democrats, while shifting South Texas seats to favor the GOP, aiming for a net five-seat pickup for Republicans nationally.

Recent Texas Southern University polling shows Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leading in District 28 and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ahead in District 34, despite both districts being redrawn to favor Trump. In District 15, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz trails Tejano musician Bobby Pulido despite a district redrawn heavily in Trump's favor. District 35, created by merging two Austin Democratic incumbents' territory, remains a contested open seat where House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned for Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.

The shifting numbers, attributed partly to fallout from immigration enforcement, tariffs and inflation, complicate Republican hopes of using redistricting to offset historic midterm losses for the party controlling the White House.

Austin city leaders and other elected officials are calling for an independent investigation after an ICE agent shot a Venezuelan man Sunday afternoon during a vehicle pursuit while he was making a DoorDash delivery. The man, identified by his attorney Kate Lincoln-Goldfinch as 28-year-old Wilber Rafael Garces Perez, says ICE officers sideswiped his car twice without warning before he was shot in the back of the neck. He was released from a hospital into ICE custody with the bullet still lodged near his spine, held at the Pearsall detention center without pain medication, and briefly returned to the hospital Monday night after complaints of untreated pain. DHS says he had a final order of removal after entering under a Biden-era asylum program later ended by Trump; his attorneys say the order stemmed from a missed hearing notice sent to an old address. Federal sources say ICE had been conducting targeted enforcement using license plate checks when they identified his vehicle.

Austin officials say the city's own EMS was requested by Austin Police, not ICE, though bystander video shows an ICE agent also asking whether an ambulance was en route; federal sources say the agent has been placed on administrative leave, standard practice in such incidents. Homeland Security Investigations and the FBI are leading the probe, with Austin Police and Texas Rangers investigating separately. Mayor Kirk Watson, Police Chief Lisa Davis, DA Jose Garza, and Congressman Greg Casar are demanding transparency and local involvement, noting this is one of at least 28 such shootings by federal immigration agents since 2024.

Sister Rose Patrice Kuhn, a 78-year-old Philadelphia-based nun with the Sisters, Servants of the Immaculate Heart of Mary, has spent the past year attending weekly federal immigration court hearings in Harlingen, Texas, offering prayer and moral support to immigrants and their families facing deportation proceedings. Kuhn, who has lived in the Rio Grande Valley since 2022 and previously worked in Chile, focuses particularly on unaccompanied minors, though she now reports roughly a third of young people she encounters are opting to self-deport rather than continue their cases.

Court observations show most adult defendants are also requesting cancellation of removal orders in favor of voluntary self-departure, encouraged partly by a Department of Homeland Security program using the CBP Home Mobile App, which offers travel assistance, a cash exit bonus, and fine forgiveness. Kuhn also noted a growing pattern of judges granting asylum contingent on relocation to third countries rather than immigrants' homelands, including cases separating families across different destination countries.

With Election Day a week away, Illinois Democrats are campaigning beyond state lines to aid party allies nationally. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi backed Texas Railroad Commissioner candidate Jon Rosenthal; Sen. Tammy Duckworth campaigned for Sherrod Brown in Ohio; Rahm Emanuel canvassed in New Hampshire; and Rep. Danny Davis and successor nominee La Shawn Ford campaigned for Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate David Crowley. Gov. JB Pritzker is focused on his own reelection, holding a large cash advantage and backing fellow Democrats financially.

Big money is also flowing into Illinois races, including Chicago school board contests, with GOP megadonors Dick and Elizabeth Uihlein and wealthy Democratic-aligned groups both spending heavily to shape outcomes from Springfield to Chicago.