Florida Senate: Which Party Wins the 2026 Seat

Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon drew a sharp rebuke from the Department of Homeland Security after saying Republicans were "literally trying to kill" black Americans and calling ICE a "weaponized paramilitary force" designed to terrorize people. Nixon made the remarks on a podcast this month, days before winning her primary, citing a September 2025 ICE operation in Chicago's South Shore neighborhood that targeted suspected Tren de Aragua members and resulted in roughly two dozen detentions.

DHS called the racial-profiling allegations "categorically FALSE," saying immigration status—not race—drives enforcement, and cited a sharp rise in reported assaults, vehicular attacks, and death threats against agents. The Republican National Committee argued Nixon's comments would help GOP candidates nationally. Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member, defeated former National Security Council official Alexander Vindman by 12 points in a lopsided primary upset despite being vastly outspent and lacking backing from Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or the DSA, winning most major metro areas including Miami-Dade and Broward. Since winning, she has distanced herself from the socialist label despite her DSA membership, denying she supports abolishing police funding or open borders. She now faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the remainder of Marco Rubio's former Senate term, in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.

With the midterm election days away, Florida's U.S. Senate race pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed to the seat by Gov. Ron DeSantis, against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in the August primary. Moody is campaigning on her record as a former attorney general and prosecutor, emphasizing law enforcement, individual freedoms, and Florida's conservative policies while casting Nixon as a socialist. Nixon is focused on affordability, government corruption, and working families, accusing Moody of using office for personal enrichment. Both candidates reject the other's characterizations as the race heads into its final week before November's vote.

Democrat Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in Florida's Senate primary by nearly 12 points, is now challenging Republican Senator Ashley Moody in a race most analysts consider a longshot for Democrats. Florida has 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, and polls show Moody leading, though margins vary. Nixon faces a severe funding gap, having raised under $1 million to Moody's more than $11 million as of late July, limiting her ability to counter attack ads tying her to the Democratic Socialists of America.

National Democrats have been slow to invest in the race, but Senators Chris Murphy and Bernie Sanders are campaigning with Nixon this week, with Sanders contributing $250,000. Nixon is running on universal health care, child care, and affordable housing, and is working to mobilize Black voters and women while courting GOP-leaning communities. She has embraced an unapologetically progressive, grassroots-driven campaign, drawing comparisons to gubernatorial nominee David Jolly's more moderate crossover strategy, with both races seen as tests of competing Democratic approaches ahead of 2028. Analysts say Trump's unpopularity and cost-of-living concerns give her an opening, but she would need exceptionally high Democratic turnout combined with Republican voters staying home to overcome the state's structural disadvantages.

A Democratic-backed super PAC has poured $2 million into ads attacking Florida Sen. Ashley Moody over her record on releasing Jeffrey Epstein's files, featuring survivor Marina Lacerda questioning Moody's priorities. The ad notes Moody joined other Republicans in blocking a September 2025 measure tied to the defense budget, but omits that the Senate later approved a standalone release bill by unanimous consent. The National Republican Senatorial Committee called the ads false and misleading, saying Moody ultimately supported transparency legislation. Epstein-related ads have run in 63 congressional races nationally, totaling $76 million.

With Election Day days away, Moody faces Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, a democratic socialist who accuses Moody of refusing to debate and of involvement in misappropriating $10 million in Medicaid funds, which Moody denies. Moody has campaigned with gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds, branding Nixon a communist, a label Nixon rejects.

Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, pulled off an upset win in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, defeating Alex Vindman, the retired lieutenant colonel who gained national attention testifying in Donald Trump's 2019 impeachment proceedings. Nixon campaigned on Medicare for All, a $25-per-hour federal minimum wage, a billionaire tax, taxpayer-funded childcare, free public college, student debt cancellation, and a national rent freeze. She was heavily outspent, raising under $1 million to Vindman's more than $16 million, and Vindman declined to debate her during the race.

Nixon will face Republican incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody in the November special election to complete the term of Marco Rubio, who vacated the seat to become secretary of state; Moody, the former state attorney general, was temporarily appointed to the seat in 2025 and won her own GOP primary the same night, and is currently favored to win. Elsewhere in Florida's primaries, moderate Democratic incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz won their own contests, with Moskowitz defeating a democratic socialist challenger. Nixon's victory adds to a broader wave of progressive and DSA-aligned candidates gaining traction in Democratic primaries nationally, a trend prediction markets are increasingly tracking for its potential impact on Senate control and the party's ideological direction heading into the midterms.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, speaking Wednesday in Orlando, weighed in on Florida's primary results and a scandal involving one of his own appointees. He dismissed Angie Nixon's chances against Sen. Ashley Moody in November, calling the progressive state lawmaker's Senate bid unlikely to succeed statewide, and touted Florida's growing GOP voter registration advantage. He also backed Ryan Elijah, who defeated embattled Rep. Cory Mills in the GOP primary, saying Mills' nomination would have put the seat at risk in the general election.

DeSantis called the arrest of Michael Caruso, whom he appointed Palm Beach County clerk of courts, a "gut punch." Caruso, 67, a former state representative once praised by DeSantis, faces five felony charges including kidnapping, molestation, luring and enticing a child, lewd and lascivious exhibition, and child abuse. Authorities say the victim, Caruso's grandson under age 12, described abuse on three occasions, including during a Thanksgiving 2024 incident and aboard a cruise ship in August 2025. Caruso denied the allegations when confronted and is being held without bond in Orange County. DeSantis suspended Caruso and installed an interim clerk; Attorney General James Uthmeier said Caruso would "face the full force of the law," and reports indicate a daughter had previously made similar allegations.

Florida's two marquee 2026 statewide races present unusual racial pairings, and candidates are handling the dynamic very differently. In the Senate race, Democrat Angie Nixon, a progressive from Jacksonville, faces Republican Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general appointed to the seat Marco Rubio vacated. In the governor's race, Republican Byron Donalds, who could become Florida's first Black governor, is running against David Jolly, a former Republican turned Democrat with strong Black voter support.

Analysts say Donalds has mostly avoided Black-specific outreach and race-focused messaging, emphasizing the economy and school choice instead, reflecting a common strategy for Black conservative candidates wary of alienating their base. Despite recent efforts to court Black voters, polling shows Jolly holding a commanding lead among Black voters. Nixon, by contrast, has leaned into discussing race directly while also courting white working-class voters with economic messaging, trailing Moody in current polling but with strategists calling her a credible underdog capable of winning with strong turnout.

Donalds has continued to draw national attention on other issues, recently criticizing far-left Florida Democrats who have called to abolish ICE amid the broader immigration debate.

Angie Nixon, a Florida state representative running for state Senate with Democratic Socialists of America backing, defeated Alex Vindman in Tuesday's primary, a surprise result now drawing national scrutiny of her past statements. Circulating remarks, highlighted by RNC Research and conservative outlets, include Nixon saying Republicans "are literally trying to kill us" and are unwilling to work across the aisle, plus her description of ICE as a "weaponized paramilitary force" meant to "terrorize" that she says should be abolished and whose agents she suggested should be jailed.

Footage also shows Nixon quoting Assata Shakur, a former FBI-listed fugitive convicted in a police officer's killing, during a church campaign stop, framing voting rights, school funding, and immigration enforcement as modern "chains." She has defended drag shows as "wholesome entertainment" for children and voiced support for reinstating DEI policies and a pathway to citizenship for immigrants. Nixon now faces Republican incumbent Ashley Moody in November's general election, with the controversy likely to shape narratives around DSA-aligned candidates nationally.

The Democratic Socialists of America are drawing increased attention in Florida politics after recent electoral wins, including St. Petersburg Council Vice Chair Richie Floyd's unopposed reelection as a self-identified democratic socialist. State Rep. Angie Nixon, who joined a North Florida DSA chapter, does not use the "democratic socialist" label herself but defeated Alex Vindman and will face Sen. Ashley Moody in November. Tampa Rep. Kathy Castor this week joined Republicans in denouncing the DSA; she faces Trump-endorsed Mike Beltran in a Republican-leaning district.

National debate has intensified over a DSA proposal to weaken or abolish the U.S. Senate and subordinate the Executive Branch and Supreme Court to the House. Florida Republican Party chair Evan Power criticized the platform as government overreach into energy, housing, and insurance, arguing similar policies have failed elsewhere. The controversy underscores how DSA-aligned candidates and proposals could shape competitive Florida races this cycle.

Former President Donald Trump is set to spend more time in Florida this month, beginning with an overnight stay at Mar-a-Lago following an October 23 rally in Fort Myers, in the heart of Rep. Byron Donalds' Southwest Florida district. The visits mark the start of what Republicans are calling his "Florida season" ahead of midterm elections now about two weeks away.

Despite Florida's reputation as increasingly friendly territory for the GOP, Republicans are voicing concern about enthusiasm and turnout. Polls show Donalds and Sen. Ashley Moody with only marginal leads in their respective gubernatorial and Senate races. Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state by more than 1.5 million, but Democrats have so far cast more vote-by-mail ballots, a shift from past cycles that followed Trump's criticism of mail voting since 2020. Republicans are now leaning more heavily on early in-person turnout, with party strategists describing the coming days as "crunch time" for mobilizing the base.