Florida’s 25th District House Race: Who Will Win

Florida's primaries produced a mixed picture for both parties ahead of November's general election. Rep. Byron Donalds won the Republican gubernatorial nomination with Trump's endorsement and a large financial edge, beating Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, former House Speaker Paul Renner and newcomer James Fishback despite Gov. Ron DeSantis's public misgivings; Donalds would become Florida's first Black governor if elected. Former Republican congressman David Jolly, running with Gwen Graham as his lieutenant governor pick, won the Democratic nomination over state Rep. Dotie Joseph and others, pitching himself as a centrist who wants to end the culture wars. The two will meet in November to succeed the term-limited DeSantis, in a state where Democrats haven't won the governorship in over 30 years.

Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated establishment-backed Alex Vindman for the Senate Democratic nomination despite being outspent; she faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her primary with Trump's backing, in the special election for Marco Rubio's former seat. Incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz turned back challengers, including Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, in redrawn districts under Florida's new Republican-favored congressional map. Trump-endorsed Cory Mills lost his House primary amid domestic violence allegations, while far-right figures Dan Bilzerian and Madison Cawthorn were also defeated, alongside Rep. Randy Fine's contentious win.

In Florida's 25th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz and Republican challenger Scott Singer, both Jewish, debated their pro-Israel credentials at a Boca Raton synagogue forum ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. The two largely agree on Israel policy — opposing conditions on U.S. military aid and rejecting genocide accusations against Israel — but clashed over Moskowitz's vote for a war powers resolution on Iran and his past vote to keep Rep. Ilhan Omar on the Foreign Affairs Committee. Moskowitz cited his AIPAC endorsement; Singer touted backing from Trump and the RJC. The redrawn district, once Biden-leaning, now favors Trump, making the race a closely watched midterm battleground.

Democratic Socialists of America member Angie Nixon won a Florida Democratic primary by a 12-point margin, prompting warnings from party moderates about a broader leftward shift within the state's Democratic ranks. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., pointed to the result as evidence of a growing divide between establishment and progressive Democrats, while detailing the strategy that helped him fend off a far-left primary challenger of his own, DSA-backed Oliver Larkin, in a competitive South Florida district roughly a quarter Jewish.

Larkin, who wants to cut funding to Israel, abolish ICE and pass Medicare for All, drew scrutiny after appearing to cut short a TV interview when the host fact-checked his claim that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Moskowitz also pushed back on Sen. Rick Scott's claim that moderate Democrats are reluctant to confront the party's progressive wing. The exchanges underscore an intensifying intraparty debate over ideology and electability, closely watched for its implications on primary contests and candidate viability in future Democratic races.

Miami Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar released a campaign ad criticizing President Trump's immigration enforcement, saying some efforts "have gone too far" and warning him to be wary of his advisers' counsel. The ad, filmed in Washington, cites ICE data claiming half of detainees have no criminal convictions or pending charges, pushing back on the administration's "worst of the worst" messaging. It comes seven weeks before Salazar faces re-election in Florida's 27th District, a Miami-Dade seat that is roughly 74% Hispanic and that Trump won with 57% of the vote in 2024, and which Democrats hope to flip.

Trump has repeatedly endorsed Salazar's re-election. Her Democratic challenger, former news anchor Elliot Rodriguez, called the ad political opportunism, noting her prior votes to fund ICE. Salazar has long pushed a bipartisan immigration overhaul, the Dignity Act, which has drawn little Republican support and accusations of amnesty advocacy. The ad's digital targeting reportedly excludes several coastal zip codes that favored Kamala Harris in 2024.

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) released a new campaign ad, filmed in D.C. and running in South Florida, accusing President Trump of going "too far" with immigration enforcement, warning that Hispanic voters who helped elect him in 2024 now "feel betrayed." Citing ICE data showing half of detainees had no criminal convictions or pending charges, she urged Trump to "be careful" about his advisers' guidance and compared his potential legacy to Lincoln's on slavery and Reagan's on communism. Salazar said she does not seek amnesty but a "dignified life" for immigrants, tying her message to her bipartisan Dignity Act (also called the DIGNIDAD Act), which would offer legal status to long-term undocumented immigrants without criminal records, updated with Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) in July. The ad comes just seven weeks before her reelection contest in a Miami-Dade district Democrats hope to flip.

The rare intra-party rebuke comes amid GOP anxiety that aggressive enforcement, including a troubled Minneapolis surge tied to two deaths, could erode Republican gains with Hispanic voters ahead of the midterms. Salazar's district, roughly 74% Hispanic, swung sharply toward Trump in 2024, helping him flip Miami-Dade County red for the first time since the 1980s, after leaning far narrower in 2020, but polling now shows Latino support swinging back toward Democrats nationally. She faces Democrat Elliot Rodriguez, a fellow Cuban-American and former TV anchor, who dismissed her ad as political opportunism; the race has reportedly tightened. Trump has shown no sign of softening his enforcement approach despite the warning.

Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, pulled off an upset win in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, defeating Alex Vindman, the retired lieutenant colonel who gained national attention testifying in Donald Trump's 2019 impeachment proceedings. Nixon campaigned on Medicare for All, a $25-per-hour federal minimum wage, a billionaire tax, taxpayer-funded childcare, free public college, student debt cancellation, and a national rent freeze. She was heavily outspent, raising under $1 million to Vindman's more than $16 million, and Vindman declined to debate her during the race.

Nixon will face Republican incumbent Sen. Ashley Moody in the November special election to complete the term of Marco Rubio, who vacated the seat to become secretary of state; Moody, the former state attorney general, was temporarily appointed to the seat in 2025 and won her own GOP primary the same night, and is currently favored to win. Elsewhere in Florida's primaries, moderate Democratic incumbents Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz won their own contests, with Moskowitz defeating a democratic socialist challenger. Nixon's victory adds to a broader wave of progressive and DSA-aligned candidates gaining traction in Democratic primaries nationally, a trend prediction markets are increasingly tracking for its potential impact on Senate control and the party's ideological direction heading into the midterms.

Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) will face Republican Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer this fall in a Florida House race now rated a toss-up, according to Decision Desk HQ. Moskowitz secured his primary win over Oliver Larkin, a progressive union organizer backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, marking the final congressional primary test for the DSA-aligned left this cycle. Singer beat out several Republican rivals to win his party's nomination, with backing from House Majority Leader Steve Scalise; President Trump, active in other Florida primaries this cycle, did not weigh in on this contest.

The district, which stretches from South Beach to Delray Beach, was considered solidly Democratic entering the year but became competitive after Florida joined the mid-decade redistricting fight. Decision Desk HQ currently rates the race a toss-up with Democrats holding a narrow edge. The matchup adds another closely watched contest to the battle for control of the House in 2026.

Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a Miami Republican, is facing pushback after releasing a campaign ad filmed outside the White House urging President Trump to soften immigration enforcement, warning his policies are hurting the GOP's standing with Latino voters. Many voters in her heavily Hispanic, majority-immigrant district say their support for Trump remains firm even as their confidence in Salazar has slipped, with some accusing her of political self-preservation and poor timing rather than genuine conviction.

Salazar faces Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez, a fellow former TV anchor, in a district Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2024 but which analysts now describe as competitive. Trump publicly criticized Salazar's ad but stopped short of harsher attacks he's aimed at other GOP critics; Salazar later said she had a "fantastic" follow-up conversation with him. The district has been heavily affected by immigration enforcement, with many Venezuelan, Haitian, Cuban and Nicaraguan residents losing humanitarian parole and TPS protections. The Cook Political Report still rates the race "likely Republican," though Democrats point to a fundraising surge for Rodriguez.

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) won her party's primary in Florida's newly drawn 20th Congressional District, a plurality-Black seat centered on Broward County, after her old 25th District seat was eliminated in Republican-led mid-decade redistricting ordered by Gov. Ron DeSantis. Rather than run in a new, whiter district that favored Trump, she chose to compete in the 20th, drawing criticism from local Black leaders, the Broward Black Democratic Caucus, and Congressional Black Caucus members who saw her candidacy as a threat to Black political representation already weakened by the Supreme Court's rollback of the Voting Rights Act; Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined to endorse her.

Wasserman Schultz defeated a divided field of four Black challengers — former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, rapper Luther "Luke" Campbell, Elijah Manley, and Dale Holness — leaning on seniority, fundraising, and an Appropriations Committee seat while her rivals split the opposing vote. Her win makes her the only white House member representing a plurality or majority-Black district heading into 2027, following the elimination of Rep. Steve Cohen's Memphis district by Tennessee Republicans. The broader Florida redistricting effort cut four Democratic-leaning seats ahead of the midterms.

Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon drew a sharp rebuke from the Department of Homeland Security after saying Republicans were "literally trying to kill" black Americans and calling ICE a "weaponized paramilitary force" designed to terrorize people. Nixon made the remarks on a podcast this month, days before winning her primary, citing a September 2025 ICE operation in Chicago's South Shore neighborhood that targeted suspected Tren de Aragua members and resulted in roughly two dozen detentions.

DHS called the racial-profiling allegations "categorically FALSE," saying immigration status—not race—drives enforcement, and cited a sharp rise in reported assaults, vehicular attacks, and death threats against agents. The Republican National Committee argued Nixon's comments would help GOP candidates nationally. Nixon, a Democratic Socialists of America member, defeated former National Security Council official Alexander Vindman by 12 points in a lopsided primary upset despite being vastly outspent and lacking backing from Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or the DSA, winning most major metro areas including Miami-Dade and Broward. Since winning, she has distanced herself from the socialist label despite her DSA membership, denying she supports abolishing police funding or open borders. She now faces Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the remainder of Marco Rubio's former Senate term, in a race forecasters favor for the GOP.