Wisconsin’s 5th District House Race: Who Will Win in 2026
Wisconsin’s 5th Congressional District, covering suburban and rural areas west of Milwaukee, holds its 2026 House election this November. The seat has long been a Republican stronghold, but open-seat dynamics and shifting suburban voting patterns could make the race more competitive than in recent cycles. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete for the district’s House seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House often hinges on a handful of competitive districts, and any shift in a traditionally safe seat signals broader national trends. A closer-than-expected contest in WI-05 would reflect on suburban voter sentiment and party enthusiasm heading into the midterms. The outcome could shape how both parties allocate resources in similar districts nationwide.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a multi-candidate primary and general election into a single binary question: which party ultimately holds the seat. By isolating party control rather than individual candidate strength, traders are effectively weighing turnout patterns and national political mood against the district’s historical partisan lean. This framing lets observers gauge how much a once-safe seat has become a genuine toss-up.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Wisconsin -
Milwaukee -
Wisconsin's 5th congressional district -
Scott Fitzgerald (politician)
Total Volume
$52.2k
Kalshi $10.5k · Polymarket $41.8k
Leading Market
Scott Fitzgerald
Kalshi 98% · Polymarket 98%
Scott Fitzgerald Volume
$38.8k
Kalshi $3.8k · Polymarket $35k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott FitzgeraldRepublican Party | 98.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
98.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Andrew BeckDemocratic Party | 4.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
3.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Tiffany cites “Zuckerbucks” funding as reason he opposed certifying 2020 Wisconsin results
PN Team • 1 week ago
U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, said during a debate that his 2020 objection to certifying Wisconsin's presidential election results stemmed from private election-administration grants funded by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, dubbed "Zuckerbucks" by critics. More than 200 Wisconsin communities received about $10 million from the Zuckerberg-backed Center for Tech and Civic Life during the pandemic. Tiffany also cited Milwaukee and Dane county clerks allowing "indefinitely confined" voters to skip photo ID for absentee ballots. He backed Trump's failed bid to disqualify 220,000 absentee ballots and voted against counting Pennsylvania and Arizona electoral votes. Democratic opponent David Crowley questioned whether Tiffany can be trusted to certify 2028 results; Tiffany said he would.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tom Tiffany Tiffany is depicted as having opposed certifying legitimate election results and supporting efforts to disqualify ballots, a significant reputational negative.'
- Donald Trump Trump is linked to a failed attempt to disqualify absentee ballots, reinforcing election-denial controversy.
- Milwaukee Milwaukee is similarly cited regarding contested absentee voting practices.
- Republican Party (United States) Tiffany's Republican affiliation is tied to his election-denial stance, a mildly negative association.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the factual setting for the disputed election certification controversy.
- Governor of Wisconsin The Wisconsin governor race is the context but the office itself is mentioned only factually.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as Tiffany's current congressional role, a neutral factual detail.
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Elections
Tiffany cites “Zuckerbucks” funding as reason for 2020 election objections in Wisconsin governor debate
PN Team • 1 week ago
In a Wisconsin governor's race debate, Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany said his 2020 objections to certifying Wisconsin's election results stemmed from concerns over election funding from Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg, often called "Zuckerbucks." Tiffany pointed to grants from the Zuckerberg-funded Center for Tech and Civic Life, which sent about $10 million to more than 200 Wisconsin communities during the pandemic, and to Milwaukee and Dane county guidance letting voters claim "indefinitely confined" status to get absentee ballots without photo ID. Democratic opponent David Crowley argued Tiffany identified no actual fraud and questioned whether he would certify the 2028 results; Tiffany said he would, "regardless of who the winner is."
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tom Tiffany Tiffany is portrayed defending his 2020 election objections without citing actual fraud, which is challenged by his opponent, reflecting negatively on his credibility.
- Milwaukee Milwaukee is similarly cited regarding absentee ballot guidance that Tiffany criticizes, a mildly negative association.
- Republican Party (United States) Tiffany, identified as Republican, is portrayed raising unproven election fraud concerns, casting a mildly negative light on the party association.
- Governor of Wisconsin The Wisconsin governor's race debate is the context of the article but the office itself is only tangentially referenced.
- United States House of Representatives Tiffany's House membership is mentioned factually without reputational implication for the institution.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the setting of the debate and election controversy, mentioned factually without clear reputational tilt.
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Elections
Tiffany cites “Zuckerbucks” funding as reason for 2020 election objections in Wisconsin governor debate
PN Team • 1 week ago
U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, said in a debate that private election grants funded by Mark Zuckerberg — dubbed "Zuckerbucks" by critics — drove his support for Trump's efforts to overturn Wisconsin's 2020 results. Tiffany also cited Milwaukee and Dane County clerks allowing "indefinitely confined" voters to skip photo ID requirements. Over 200 Wisconsin communities received roughly $10 million from the Zuckerberg-funded Center for Tech and Civic Life during the pandemic; voters later banned such private election funding via a 2024 constitutional amendment. Democratic opponent David Crowley argued Tiffany's explanation was inadequate and questioned his trustworthiness to certify 2028 results, though Tiffany pledged he would certify regardless of outcome.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tom Tiffany Tiffany is depicted defending his support for overturning 2020 results, raising doubts about his trustworthiness despite his certification pledge.
- Donald Trump Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 Wisconsin results are referenced as the context for Tiffany's actions, reflecting negatively.
- Milwaukee Milwaukee is cited similarly as allowing disputed voting practices, a mildly negative mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Tiffany's Republican affiliation is tied to his election-denial stance, a mild tangential association.
- Governor of Wisconsin The Wisconsin governor's office is the subject of the debate and election but not portrayed positively or negatively itself.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as Tiffany's current role, a neutral factual reference.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the factual setting for the election dispute and debate without inherent positive or negative framing.
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Elections
Tiffany cites “Zuckerbucks” in defending 2020 election objections during Wisconsin governor debate
PN Team • 1 week ago
Rep. Tom Tiffany, the Republican candidate for Wisconsin governor, said during a debate that private election funding dubbed "Zuckerbucks" — grants from a Mark Zuckerberg-backed nonprofit that helped Wisconsin communities run elections during the pandemic — was a key reason he objected to certifying the state's 2020 results and backed Trump's bid to disqualify absentee ballots from Milwaukee and Dane counties. Democratic opponent David Crowley called the explanation inadequate, noting Tiffany alleged no actual fraud, and questioned whether Tiffany could be trusted to certify 2028 results. Tiffany pledged he would certify the 2028 election regardless of outcome. Wisconsin voters later banned private election grant funding via constitutional amendment.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Tom Tiffany Tiffany is criticized by his opponent for weak justification of his 2020 election objections and faces questions about future election certification trustworthiness.
- Donald Trump Trump's effort to disqualify absentee ballots is referenced as part of a controversial election dispute.
- Milwaukee Milwaukee is similarly cited as a county whose ballots were targeted for disqualification.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the setting for the debate and later took positive democratic action by banning private election funding via referendum.
- Republican Party (United States) Tiffany's Republican affiliation is tied to his controversial 2020 election objections, a mild tangential association.
- Governor of Wisconsin The Wisconsin governor race is the context for the debate but the office itself is not portrayed positively or negatively.
- United States House of Representatives Tiffany's House position is mentioned factually without reputational implication for the institution.
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Elections
Suspicious mail sent to congressional, election offices nationwide prompts FBI investigation
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan's Madison office received a suspicious piece of mail on Oct. 19, prompting a hazmat response from the Madison Fire Department. Staff recognized it as matching mailings sent to officials around the country containing an unidentified powdery substance; the envelope was not opened and its contents were sent for testing. Similar mail was earlier received by U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore's Milwaukee office and the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Other targets reportedly include election offices in Oklahoma, Louisiana and Ohio, plus Sen. Chuck Schumer, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Sen. Chris Murphy and Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester. The FBI and U.S. Postal Inspection Service are investigating and working to identify those responsible ahead of the election.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Gwen Moore Gwen Moore's office was targeted by suspicious mail, portraying her as a victim rather than reflecting on her conduct.
- Mark Pocan Mark Pocan's office received suspicious mail requiring a hazmat response, a victimizing but not reputation-damaging event.
- Madison, Wisconsin Madison is mentioned as the location of Pocan's office that received the suspicious mail, a neutral factual reference.
- Milwaukee Milwaukee is mentioned as the location of Moore's office that received suspicious mail, a neutral factual reference.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is referenced as the state where the targeted offices are located, a neutral factual mention.
- United States House of Representatives The House is referenced only via the offices of its members being targeted, a factual mention without clear benefit or harm.
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Elections
North Texas voters to decide 12 U.S. House races on Nov. 3
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Twelve U.S. House seats covering the Dallas-Fort Worth area are on the Nov. 3 midterm ballot, with early voting running Oct. 19-30. Most races feature Republican incumbents—Keith Self, Pat Fallon, Lance Gooden, Jake Ellzey, Craig Goldman, Ronny Jackson, Beth Van Duyne and Roger Williams—facing Democratic challengers, plus a Libertarian in District 26. Three open seats stand out: District 30, vacated by Jasmine Crockett after her Senate run; and Districts 32 and 33, left open by Julie Johnson and Marc Veasey, respectively, after mid-decade redistricting reshaped them from Democratic-leaning to Republican-favored territory. In District 33, Colin Allred faces Patrick David Gillespie. Results are expected after 7 p.m. on Election Day.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as the party of most incumbents running for reelection.
- Beth Van Duyne Listed as an incumbent facing a Democratic challenger without further detail.
- Craig Goldman Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Dallas Referenced indirectly as part of the Dallas-Fort Worth area covered by the races.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as the party of challengers and one open-seat candidate.
- Jake Ellzey Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Keith Self Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Lance Gooden Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Pat Fallon Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Roger Williams (Texas politician) Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Ronny Jackson Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Tarrant County, Texas Referenced indirectly as part of the Dallas-Fort Worth area covered by the races.
- Texas The article is about North Texas congressional races within the state.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced factually as the body whose seats are up for election.
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Elections
Missouri’s 4th District House Race: Alford Faces Air Force Veteran Herrera
PN Team • 2 days ago
Missouri's 4th Congressional District race pits two-term Republican incumbent Mark Alford, a former TV anchor serving on House Armed Services and Appropriations committees, against Democrat Jordan Herrera, an Air Force veteran and Missouri assistant attorney general, and Libertarian Thomas Holbrook. Alford campaigns on an America First platform, border enforcement and reduced federal spending, while Herrera emphasizes economic security, healthcare access and limiting government regulation of personal life. Holbrook opposes gerrymandering and tariffs. The district's boundaries remain contested: the 2022 map, used for this election, covers west-central Missouri, while a newer 2025 map used for the primary would shift Kansas City into the district instead of District 5.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Identified as Herrera's party affiliation in a factual race description.
- Kansas City, Missouri Mentioned factually regarding redistricting plans affecting the district's boundaries.
- Missouri Named as the state hosting the congressional race, described neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) Identified as Alford's party affiliation in a factual race description.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced as the chamber both candidates seek to join, described neutrally.
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Elections
Salt Lake County Council majority up for grabs in November election
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Republicans currently hold a narrow 5-4 majority on the Salt Lake County Council, and the balance of power is on the ballot this November in Utah's most populous county. The marquee race pits Republican Kathleen Anderson, who ousted incumbent Laurie Stringham at the GOP convention, against Democrat Zach Robinson and Constitution Party candidate Gregory Beglarian for an at-large seat.
Three district races are also in play: Republican Mike Bird faces Democrat Luke Maynes for the open District 3 seat, Democrat Sara Cimmers faces Republican Traci Crockett in District 5, and Democratic incumbent Jiro Johnson defends District 1 against Libertarian Casey Poe. Democrats are emphasizing affordable housing, water conservation and child care funding, while Republicans are campaigning on public safety, lower taxes and small business support.
Down-ballot, incumbents District Attorney Sim Gill and Sheriff Rosie Rivera seek re-election against Republican challengers, and Republican Auditor Chris Harding faces Democrat Ali Cloward. Mail ballots are due by 8 p.m. on Nov. 3.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Described factually as holding a minority on the council and campaigning on policy issues like housing and child care.
- Republican Party (United States) Described factually as holding a narrow majority and campaigning on public safety and lower taxes.
- Salt Lake County, Utah The article centers on county council elections in Salt Lake County without reputational framing.
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Elections
North Augusta City Council Races Move to November Ballot
PN Team • 5 days ago
North Augusta, South Carolina, has shifted its City Council and mayoral elections from odd-year April votes to the even-year November general election, aligning them with state and federal races. Three Republicans—incumbent David Buck, former Councilwoman Jenafer McCauley, and newcomer Tabitha Waldrop—are running unopposed for three open seats after winning a contested June primary; no Democrats filed. The change aims to boost turnout, which historically ran just 10-15% in standalone local elections versus 70-80% in general elections. Aiken County voters will also decide an uncontested District 5 council race and a referendum on financing wastewater treatment infrastructure, including an expansion of the Horse Creek plant. Early voting began October 19 ahead of the November 3 election.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Three Republicans won uncontested seats after a primary, a neutral-to-mild factual mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Noted only as not having filed candidates, a neutral factual detail.
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2026 Georgia Congressional Elections: Full Candidate Field Set
PN Team • 5 days ago
All 14 of Georgia's U.S. House seats are up for election on Nov. 3, 2026, with major-party nominees now set in every district. Most incumbents, including Sanford Bishop, Brian Jack, Hank Johnson, Nikema Williams, Lucy McBath, Rich McCormick, Austin Scott, Andrew Clyde and Rick Allen, face challengers, while District 13 features state Rep. Jasmine Clark against Air Force veteran Jonathan Chavez. Candidates include political organizers, veterans, business owners, a physician, a microbiologist and several first-time contenders.
For prediction markets, the races hinge on incumbency, district partisan lean and name recognition, with most seats considered safe for the incumbent party but a handful, such as Districts 1, 2 and 13, drawing closer scrutiny.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Brian Jack Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- Georgia (U.S. state) Central setting for the factual election overview, no reputational spin.
- Hank Johnson Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- Lucy McBath Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- Nikema Williams Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- Rich McCormick Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- Sanford Bishop Listed neutrally as an incumbent facing a challenger.
- United States Congress Mentioned factually as the body these candidates seek to join.
- United States House of Representatives Neutral factual reference to the seats up for election.
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Vol $10.6k
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Mark Pocan
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Tony Wied
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Wisconsin’s 6th Congressional District House Race 2026
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Leading:
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Leading:
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