Who Will Win South Dakota’s Senate Seat

Iowa, which has voted reliably Republican for over a decade and backed Donald Trump three times, is shaping up as an unexpectedly competitive battleground in the 2026 midterms. Democrats see real chances to flip the governorship, a Senate seat, and several House races, aided by a large bloc of independent voters and a state economy strained by tariffs on agricultural goods, rising diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict, and rural hospital closures linked to Medicaid cuts. Polling shows a majority of Iowans disapprove of Trump and believe his policies have raised living costs.

Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement opens a competitive Senate race between Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, a former Paralympic gold medalist. In a recent debate, Hinson repeatedly attacked Turek's attendance record in the Iowa legislature, including missed votes on the state farm bill and rural health funding, and demanded he refund per diem payments; Turek countered by criticizing her lack of in-person town halls. In the governor's race, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand is pitching an economic-populist message against Republican Zach Lahn, who has faced questions over his Iowa residency. Analysts note Iowa's history of razor-thin House margins, making it a key test of whether Democrats can reclaim congressional control.

South Dakota's Constitutional Amendment I, on the November ballot, would repeal the state's Medicaid expansion if federal funding drops below the current 90-percent matching threshold. Voters approved Medicaid expansion in 2022 with 56 percent support, and lawmakers placed Amendment I before voters during this year's legislative session.

Supporters, including Republican State Senator Casey Crabtree, argue the state cannot absorb costs if Washington reduces its share, though he notes expansion could continue under state statute if lawmakers find funding. Opponents, including medical professionals and advocacy groups like the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network, warn as many as 30,000 South Dakotans could lose coverage, calling the program critical in rural areas. Both sides acknowledge that any federal rollback of Medicaid's funding formula would face a difficult path through Congress, given that 40 states now rely on expansion dollars. Separately, other states are already seeing coverage losses tied to federal policy changes: Washington state expects about 14,000 residents, mostly lawfully present immigrants without green cards, to lose Medicaid eligibility starting October 1 under the new federal law known as HR1. The South Dakota vote will test public appetite for conditional entitlement guarantees tied to federal funding levels.

Republican Ashley Hinson is locked in a competitive Iowa U.S. Senate race against Democrat Josh Turek, and GOP strategists acknowledge she faces a delicate balancing act with Donald Trump. Hinson has sought to create modest distance from the president on select issues without openly breaking with him or risking backlash from his base, which remains influential in Iowa's Republican electorate.

The dynamic reflects broader concerns within the GOP about how closely Senate candidates in competitive states should align themselves with Trump heading into the midterms. Turek, the Democratic challenger, is positioning himself to capitalize on any erosion of Republican support tied to dissatisfaction with Trump-era policies or rhetoric. The race is being watched as a bellwether for how Republican incumbents and candidates elsewhere manage similar tensions between base loyalty and swing-voter appeal, with implications for control of the Senate.

Alaska's record-breaking Senate race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan has taken a new turn as the Justice Department filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of results if anyone other than Sullivan wins. The DOJ argues a same-named candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., could confuse the outcome, though the ballot lists the senator's party and incumbent status. Peltola called the suit a "desperate attempt" to cling to power; election integrity advocates and Democratic leaders, including Sen. Chuck Schumer, condemned it as an unprecedented intervention. The lawsuit adds legal uncertainty to a contest already defined by record spending and viewed as pivotal to Senate control.

Peltola has outraised Sullivan roughly $32 million to $13 million since January, with outside groups adding over $80 million more, as early voting continues ahead of the ranked-choice general election.

The Senate adjourned for a five-week recess until after the midterm elections, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expressing confidence Democrats will retake the majority, citing strong candidates and a favorable political climate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans still expect to hold their majority, though likely narrower, given the map favors states Trump carried previously. Democratic strategists remain split between targeting flippable states like Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa versus reach states such as Mississippi and Florida. Separately, Cook Political Report shifted its Florida and Texas governor's races toward Democrats, now rating both Lean Republican rather than safer categories, citing Trump's weak approval ratings and a difficult midterm environment for the GOP, though Republicans remain favored in both pricey, traditionally red states.

Other developments: a bipartisan Senate permitting reform deal faces resistance in the House, where Democrats say they'd rather wait until after the election to negotiate from a stronger position. House Judiciary's Jamie Raskin asked federal watchdogs to probe taxpayer-funded Trump administration TV ads ahead of the midterms. Schumer also said he'll push AI safety legislation next year, with some Republican support, while Third Way unveiled a Supreme Court reform platform featuring 18-year term limits and an ethics code, aiming to shape Democratic discourse through 2028.

With the midterm election days away, Florida's U.S. Senate race pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed to the seat by Gov. Ron DeSantis, against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in the August primary. Moody is campaigning on her record as a former attorney general and prosecutor, emphasizing law enforcement, individual freedoms, and Florida's conservative policies while casting Nixon as a socialist. Nixon is focused on affordability, government corruption, and working families, accusing Moody of using office for personal enrichment. Both candidates reject the other's characterizations as the race heads into its final week before November's vote.

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed has repeated his assertion that Israel is "not actually our friend," making the case in interviews with ABC News and MS NOW ahead of his final debate against Republican Mike Rogers. El-Sayed argues Israel has lobbied the U.S. into conflicts, including pushing for action against Iran, and accused the Israeli military of war crimes. He has also faced criticism for deflecting questions about alleged family ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and past appearances with controversial streamer Hasan Piker. At the debate in Detroit, El-Sayed also opposed the SAVE America Act's voter ID and citizenship-proof requirements, calling them voter suppression, while Rogers defended the measure as reasonable. The race remains competitive ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

The Sept. 23-25 state visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Washington produced several concrete agreements, following up on momentum from President Trump's May visit to China. The two countries launched the U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment, bodies agreed upon in May, and announced tariff relief on $30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods in each direction. A new working group will target barriers in agriculture and other sectors, while China committed to importing at least 10 million metric tons of U.S. coal annually in 2027 and 2028.

On counternarcotics, China agreed to restrict a class of dangerous drugs and limit exports of fentanyl precursor chemicals, building on law enforcement cooperation that led to drug-trafficking arrests of Chinese nationals in August. No joint military statement was issued, though China's Foreign Ministry said both militaries agreed to prioritize a new crisis-communication mechanism. Unlike in May, Trump indicated Taiwan was not a major topic this time, even as tensions and Chinese military activity near the island continue.

Ohio Sen. Jon Husted addressed the Republican National Convention in Dallas, one of several speakers on the event's first night alongside House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso. The two-day convention, headlined by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, comes less than two months before the November midterms.

Husted centered his remarks on affordability, citing conversations with Ohioans he says have benefited from tax cuts signed into law last year, including provisions eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income. He pointed to workers in Cleveland, Findlay, and Dayton as examples of people using the savings to pay down debt, save for a home, or stay in their houses as they age.

Husted is running to keep his Senate seat against Democrat Sherrod Brown, the former senator who lost to Bernie Moreno in 2024 and is seeking a return to Washington. Brown has recently campaigned in the Cleveland and Canton areas. Election Day is November 3.

Texas Attorney General and GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton has been caught on leaked audio complaining that Washington operatives and party leaders, rather than himself, are controlling his campaign's messaging. "I've never been in a race where I felt less control," Paxton said at a fundraiser, adding frustration that decisions were coming "from DC." His campaign says he was referring to super PACs, which cannot legally coordinate with campaigns but have spent heavily on his behalf. A separate leaked recording had Paxton acknowledging his numbers dropped after a Trump-headlined GOP convention in Dallas.

The disclosures add to visible strain within Texas Republican ranks ahead of the November 3 election against Democrat James Talarico, with Senator John Cornyn among those reluctant to fully rally behind Paxton. Angela Paxton, the AG's estranged wife who filed for divorce in July 2025 citing adultery, has released a PAC-funded ad urging Republicans to back the full GOP ticket regardless of individual candidates. Polling shows Talarico with a narrow lead, and Republicans have poured tens of millions of dollars into defending the seat.