Racine, Wisconsin

Democrats have added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, to the DCCC's "red to blue" program targeting vulnerable GOP incumbents. Challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate, is betting that voter anger over the economy, health care costs and gas prices under President Trump can overcome Steil's fundraising edge and name recognition after eight years in office. Steil, who succeeded Paul Ryan in a district with deep manufacturing losses, has won all four of his races by at least 9 points and entered August with a large cash advantage over Berman.

The race illustrates broader national trends: Trump-aligned PACs have spent tens of millions on House ads since September, with the vast majority going toward defending districts Trump carried in 2024 rather than targeting Democratic-held seats, signaling Republicans are largely on defense this cycle. Democrats hope a strong enough "blue wave" could flip even well-funded, longtime incumbents like Steil, though party officials on both sides say an upset remains a steep climb for Berman.

Democrats are targeting Republican Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, adding it to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "red to blue" program as part of a broader effort to widen the House map ahead of the midterms. Challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate, is leaning on his working-class background and voter frustration over the economy, health care costs and gas prices to make the race competitive in a district Republicans have held for three decades, previously represented by Paul Ryan.

Steil, seeking a fifth term, has outraised and outspent Berman roughly 2-to-1 and enters with a large cash advantage. Trump-aligned groups No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC have poured tens of millions into House races nationally, with the vast majority going to districts Trump won in 2024, underscoring Republicans' largely defensive posture this cycle. Party officials on both sides acknowledge Berman faces long odds against Steil's name recognition, though Democrats hope a large enough anti-Trump wave could still flip the seat.

Democrats have added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republican Rep. Bryan Steil since 2019, to the DCCC's "red to blue" target list, boosting resources for challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate. Democrats hope voter anger over Trump's approval rating, healthcare costs, gas prices and tariffs could turn a modest "blue wave" into a bigger upset, though officials in both parties consider it a long shot given Steil's name recognition and fundraising edge.

Steil and allied groups have outspent Berman roughly 2-1, entering August with $6.3 million cash on hand versus about $152,000 for Berman. Nationally, Trump-aligned groups No Going Back PAC and Safety and Affordability PAC have spent more than $84 million on House ads since September, with 96% concentrated in districts Trump carried in 2024 — a sign Republicans are playing defense but retain a financial cushion. Steil, seen as a possible 2028 Senate contender, has won his prior four races by at least 9 points. The district, anchored by Racine, Kenosha and Janesville, leans Republican but has grown more competitive under redrawn maps.

Democrats are targeting Wisconsin Rep. Bryan Steil's seat as part of a broader push to expand the House battlefield ahead of the midterms. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District, held by Republicans for more than three decades, to its "red to blue" program in September, boosting resources for challenger Mitchell Berman, a nurse and first-time candidate running on a working-class message and voter frustration over the economy, healthcare costs and tariffs.

Steil, a fifth-term incumbent and former aide to Paul Ryan, has significantly outraised Berman and enjoys strong name recognition, and Republicans and Democrats alike say beating him will be difficult despite the district growing more competitive under 2022 redistricting. Trump-aligned PACs have poured tens of millions into House ad spending nationally, overwhelmingly in Trump-won districts, underscoring Republicans' defensive posture this cycle even as they retain a financial edge. The race is seen as a bellwether for how large a Democratic wave might materialize in 2026.