John McGuire (Virginia politician)

Virginia's 1st and 5th congressional districts have drawn roughly $1.1 million in combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, the most activity among the state's House races, as both could factor into control of Congress. In the 5th District, Republican Rep. John McGuire is favored over Democrat Tom Perriello. In the 1st District, Democrat Shannon Taylor is favored to flip the seat held by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman. A third race, the 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria, has also seen heavy betting, with markets strongly favoring Luria.

More broadly, prediction markets favor Democrats to retake the House and give them an edge in the Senate, with over $165 million traded on House control and $99 million on the Senate across both platforms.

Controversy is growing over a series of federally funded advertisements praising President Trump, which critics say amount to taxpayer-financed self-promotion. The Associated Press reported the three ads have cost nearly $1.5 million, with the newest spot closely resembling a 2024 Trump campaign ad. The Wall Street Journal reported the Department of Homeland Security helped finance the spots.

Virginia Democrats have been especially vocal. Sen. Tim Kaine called the ads illegal and said they reflect Trump's sagging popularity amid rising costs tied to tariffs and his handling of conflict with Iran. Rep. Eugene Vindman said Trump is trying to change the subject ahead of the midterms, while former Rep. Tom Perriello, a congressional candidate, criticized Republican rival John McGuire for staying silent. Several Virginia Republicans facing competitive House races did not respond to requests for comment.

The White House defended the ads as public service announcements reminding Americans to "love their country," insisting they are not campaign material since Trump is not on any ballot.

Early voting opened Sept. 18 in Virginia ahead of the Nov. 3 election, with voting continuing through Oct. 31 and a voter registration deadline of Oct. 23. Voters statewide will decide three constitutional amendments covering reproductive rights, marriage equality (protecting gay and interracial marriage), and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who complete their sentences.

Congressional races include Democratic Sen. Mark Warner seeking a fourth term against Republican Bert Mizusawa, plus contests in the 1st District (Rob Wittman vs. Shannon Taylor), 4th District (Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray Jr. and Joan Bell), and 5th District (John McGuire vs. Tom Perriello and Cooke Harvey). Richmond and Chesterfield voters, along with 45 other localities, will also weigh a potential 1% sales tax increase dedicated to school construction, projected to raise roughly $47 million annually in Richmond and up to $70 million in Chesterfield. Local races include a Richmond School Board special election and a contested Chesterfield School Board seat.

Early voting has opened in Virginia ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, running through Oct. 31 with a voter registration deadline of Oct. 23. Voters statewide will decide three constitutional amendments covering reproductive rights, marriage equality (protecting gay and interracial marriage), and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who complete their sentences.

Richmond-area voters will also weigh in on federal races: Sen. Mark Warner seeks a fourth term against Bert Mizusawa, while U.S. House contests include the 1st District (Rob Wittman vs. Shannon Taylor), 4th District (Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray Jr. and Joan Bell), and 5th District (John McGuire vs. Tom Perriello and Cooke Harvey). Richmond and Chesterfield, along with 45 other Virginia localities, will vote on authorizing a local 1% sales tax for school construction, projected to raise roughly $47 million and $70 million annually, respectively. Richmond also holds a special School Board election between incumbent Anne Holton and Jackie McDonnough.