Virginia’s 11th District House Race 2026

Democratic gubernatorial nominee David Jolly traveled to northern Virginia's "Data Center Alley" this week, using the region's dense cluster of hyperscale data centers to argue against unchecked data center expansion in Florida. The former Republican congressman has made the issue central to his bid to become Florida's first Democratic governor in more than three decades, with the race remaining tightly contested roughly seven weeks before the midterms.

Jolly described visiting a family living near the facilities as a "sensory experience," citing noise and visual obstruction caused by the massive structures. His trip is meant to show Florida voters a preview of what could come if hyperscale data center development continues unchecked, tying the issue to broader national anxieties over artificial intelligence's infrastructure demands.

The visit underscores how data centers, once a niche zoning issue, have become a wedge topic in state political campaigns, reflecting growing public concern over the environmental and community impacts of AI-driven infrastructure buildouts nationwide.

The Fairfax County Board of Supervisors voted unanimously to move forward with a 3.5% local tax on recreational marijuana sales, the highest rate permitted under Virginia law. State rules allow localities to set a cannabis retail tax rate between 1% and 3.5%, and the board did not consider a lower figure. The local levy would apply on top of standard state and local sales taxes and Virginia's state marijuana tax, which starts at 6% and rises to 8% after July 1, 2029.

A draft tax ordinance is expected in spring 2027, followed by a public hearing, with projected revenue to be included in the county's FY28 budget plan. The county is also working on zoning rules to determine where dispensaries can operate. The moves come as Virginia prepares to launch retail cannabis sales on July 1, 2027, with licenses expected in early 2027. Future state tax revenue is slated for addiction treatment, education, health care, and communities disproportionately affected by past drug enforcement.

A campaign to recall Fairfax County, Virginia, Commonwealth's Attorney Steve Descano has gathered more than 10,000 signatures following the February 2026 stabbing death of Stephanie, a 41-year-old woman killed while waiting for a bus. The suspect, Abdul Jalloh, who entered the country illegally, had reportedly been arrested more than 30 times, including for rape, malicious wounding, assault and prior stabbings, with several charges declined or reduced under Descano's tenure since 2020.

Fairfax police say they warned Descano's office repeatedly about Jalloh, including an email in May and a written warning in November cautioning that further violence was likely. Stephanie's mother, who launched the recall petition, cites Descano's campaign statements about limiting immigration consequences in charging decisions and donations from Soros-backed groups as evidence of a broader policy failure.

Descano remains in office as the recall petition continues to circulate, drawing renewed attention to prosecutorial discretion policies, immigration enforcement, and public safety accountability in Virginia's most populous county.

Virginia's 1st and 5th congressional districts have drawn roughly $1.1 million in combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, the most activity among the state's House races, as both could factor into control of Congress. In the 5th District, Republican Rep. John McGuire is favored over Democrat Tom Perriello. In the 1st District, Democrat Shannon Taylor is favored to flip the seat held by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman. A third race, the 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria, has also seen heavy betting, with markets strongly favoring Luria.

More broadly, prediction markets favor Democrats to retake the House and give them an edge in the Senate, with over $165 million traded on House control and $99 million on the Senate across both platforms.

Early voting has opened in Virginia ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, running through Oct. 31 with a voter registration deadline of Oct. 23. Voters statewide will decide three constitutional amendments covering reproductive rights, marriage equality (protecting gay and interracial marriage), and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who complete their sentences.

Richmond-area voters will also weigh in on federal races: Sen. Mark Warner seeks a fourth term against Bert Mizusawa, while U.S. House contests include the 1st District (Rob Wittman vs. Shannon Taylor), 4th District (Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray Jr. and Joan Bell), and 5th District (John McGuire vs. Tom Perriello and Cooke Harvey). Richmond and Chesterfield, along with 45 other Virginia localities, will vote on authorizing a local 1% sales tax for school construction, projected to raise roughly $47 million and $70 million annually, respectively. Richmond also holds a special School Board election between incumbent Anne Holton and Jackie McDonnough.

President Trump has repeatedly downplayed reports of deteriorating conditions aboard the USS Lincoln and other Navy vessels deployed amid the ongoing war with Iran, calling the accounts "fake news" and suggesting sailors haven't been out "nearly long enough." The response has drawn criticism and could carry political consequences in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, a Tidewater-region seat with one of the country's largest active-duty military populations, heavily Navy-affiliated.

Democrat Elaine Luria, a Navy veteran challenging Republican Representative Jen Kiggans in a rematch, says she plans to make Trump's comments a central campaign issue, arguing they reflect a broader carelessness toward service members and insufficient GOP oversight of the military. Kiggans has blamed media "misinformation" for the controversy, echoing her earlier dismissal of concerns about the carrier Gerald R. Ford. Local Republicans concede the prolonged war exposes the administration to criticism, even as they downplay the political risk among military families.

Three competitive Virginia congressional races are drawing national attention as potential bellwethers for House control. In the 1st District, Republican Rep. Rob Wittman faces Democrat Shannon Taylor in a toss-up contest; analysts say a Taylor win would signal strong odds of a Democratic House takeover nationally. The 2nd District race between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria leans Democratic, while the 5th District matchup between Republican Rep. John McGuire and Democrat Tom Perriello leans Republican. Political scientists note that if Republicans sweep all three seats, they are likely to retain the House. Early voting runs through Oct. 31, with Election Day set for Nov. 3.

Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) is casting his 2026 challenger, Henrico County Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor, as soft on crime, seeking to neutralize what could otherwise be a strength for the Democratic prosecutor in a Republican-leaning district. Wittman announced endorsements from 14 sheriffs across the district and released an ad accusing Taylor of releasing "the worst criminals" early and citing past plea deals and lenient drug sentencing decisions from her career. Taylor, a four-time elected prosecutor who also ran for Virginia attorney general in 2025, has campaigned on her law-and-order record, touting convictions of violent criminals and sex traffickers.

Taylor countered with her own ad citing endorsements from 13 sheriffs statewide, though only one has jurisdiction in the district, along with a claimed 90% homicide conviction rate and an 86% drop in murders under her leadership. Her campaign dismissed Wittman's attacks and pointed to his nearly two-decade tenure in Congress. Trump carried the district by under 5 points in 2024, while Wittman won by 13 against a weaker opponent, making the race a closely watched 2026 battleground contest.

Former Rep. Elaine Luria, the Democrat challenging Rep. Jen Kiggans for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District seat in 2026, has not moved into the district despite promising to do so after 2021 redistricting shifted her Norfolk home into the neighboring 3rd District. A Washington Examiner review of property records found Luria still resides in Norfolk and in 2024 purchased a second home just doors from her original house, also outside the 2nd District's boundaries. Her husband continues to list their original Norfolk address on federal campaign finance filings.

Luria's campaign says she was "deliberately drawn out" of the district after the court-ordered 2021 remap and calls the residency scrutiny a distraction from Kiggans' record. Candidates are constitutionally required only to live within the state, not the specific district. Luria won her August primary in a landslide and faces Kiggans in a rematch of their 2022 race, which Luria lost narrowly. The contest is rated a toss-up and is seen as pivotal to Democrats' efforts to retake the House majority.

Virginia voters head to the polls Nov. 3 to decide three constitutional amendments — on reproductive rights, marriage equality, and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons after sentence completion — alongside federal races. Sen. Mark Warner seeks a fourth term against Bert Mizusawa, while competitive U.S. House contests play out in the 1st (Wittman vs. Taylor), 4th (McClellan vs. Murray and Bell), and 5th (McGuire vs. Perriello and Harvey) districts. Richmond and Chesterfield voters will also weigh a 1% sales tax increase to fund school construction, alongside 45 other Virginia localities, plus local School Board and Board of Supervisors races. Early voting runs through Oct. 31.