Texas 16th Congressional District House Race 2026
Texas’s 16th Congressional District, anchored in El Paso, holds its 2026 House election on November 3. The seat has long leaned Democratic, representing a border community with deep ties to trade, immigration policy, and military installations like Fort Bliss. Candidates will compete to succeed the current representative as redistricting and local dynamics shape the field.
Why Markets Are Watching
El Paso’s economy depends heavily on cross-border commerce and federal spending, making this race a proxy for broader debates over immigration enforcement and trade policy. Whoever wins will help shape House priorities on border security funding and Texas’s political representation heading into the next Congress.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate contest into a binary question: which party holds the seat after election night. Traders are effectively weighing historical partisan lean against any shifts in turnout or candidate strength along the border. It isolates outcome risk in a district rarely considered competitive, making deviation from expectations the key signal worth tracking.
Total Volume
$22.9k
Kalshi $1.1k · Polymarket $21.8k
Leading Market
Veronica Escobar
Kalshi 99% · Polymarket 97%
Veronica Escobar Volume
$11.3k
Kalshi $63.03 · Polymarket $11.2k
Veronica Escobar 24h Change
+1.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket +1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica EscobarDemocratic Party | 98.1¢ | 7.0% | , trade Veronica Escobar on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Veronica Escobar on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Adam BaumannRepublican Party | 4.1¢ | 7.0% | , trade Adam Baumann on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Adam Baumann on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica EscobarDemocratic Party | $11,283.14 | ||
| Adam BaumannRepublican Party | $11,604.08 |