Texas’s 4th Congressional District: 2026 House Race Winner
Texas’s 4th Congressional District, anchored in Northeast Texas and including Tyler-area communities, heads to voters in November 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The seat has long been a reliable Republican stronghold in a conservative region of the state. The 2026 midterm contest will determine who represents the district for the next two-year term.
Why Markets Are Watching
House control nationally often hinges on margins in safe-seat districts like TX-04, where turnout shifts can signal broader electoral trends. Redistricting changes and candidate quality could affect how comfortably the incumbent party holds the seat. Results here will feed into the larger narrative of whether Texas’s political alignment is shifting ahead of the 2026 midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate general election into a binary question: will the Republican or Democratic nominee win the seat. Traders are effectively weighing historical partisan lean against any signs of a competitive shift in turnout or candidate strength. Because the district rarely flips, the market also captures sentiment about broader national conditions reflected in down-ballot races.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Redistricting -
Politics of Texas -
Pat Fallon -
Texas's 4th congressional district -
Tyler, Texas -
Jason Pearce -
Northeast Texas
Total Volume
$39.8k
Kalshi $5.6k · Polymarket $34.2k
Leading Market
Pat Fallon
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 98%
Pat Fallon Volume
$21.3k
Kalshi $677.84 · Polymarket $20.7k
Pat Fallon 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi -0.10% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat FallonRepublican Party | 97.6¢ | 7.0% | , trade Pat Fallon on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Pat Fallon on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Jason PearceDemocratic Party | 4.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Jason Pearce on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 3.0¢ | 5% | , trade Jason Pearce on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pat FallonRepublican Party | $21,331.49 | ||
| Jason PearceDemocratic Party | $18,476.81 |