Texas’s 23rd Congressional District House Race 2026

Polling and interviews across Texas point to a significant erosion of Latino support for President Trump since his 2024 gains, driven by frustration over high prices, gas costs, and aggressive ICE enforcement that has rattled South Texas communities and economies. Strategists describe the shift as a rebuke of Republicans rather than genuine enthusiasm for Democrats, who still carry a damaged brand with many Latino voters. The trend could shape Texas's competitive U.S. Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, as well as newly redrawn majority-Hispanic congressional districts. Analysts expect Latino support for Democrats to partially rebound toward 2018 levels, but caution that voters remain persuadable and increasingly judge candidates individually rather than by party.

With polls suggesting Ken Paxton could lose Texas's U.S. Senate race, Democratic advocates and local officials fear Paxton and the Trump administration might use federal or state power to disrupt voting in Harris County, a Democratic stronghold. Concerns include possible ICE presence near polling places, National Guard involvement, or baseless fraud claims used to contest results, echoing past Trump-era efforts in Georgia, California and Alaska.

Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth says her office has trained staff, secured legal authority to respond to litigation, and increased transparency through livestreamed ballot counting. Democratic Party officials, elected Democrats, and nonpartisan election experts say safeguards and bipartisan oversight make the county's election process resilient to interference or unfounded fraud claims.

Texas' rapidly growing Muslim population, estimated between 300,000 and 500,000 (up from about 140,000 in 1990), has become a flashpoint among Republicans, drawing national attention during the RNC's Midterm Convention in Dallas. GOP officials including Reps. Keith Self, Chip Roy, and Brandon Gill, congressional candidate Brandon Herrera, and state Rep. Brian Harrison are calling for legislative and congressional action against what they describe as Islamism and Sharia law, citing new mosque construction and Islamic development projects across the state.

Specific controversies include the EPIC City development in Josephine, which Attorney General Ken Paxton's office says is linked to alleged securities law violations, prompting Gov. Greg Abbott to halt construction; a McKinney mosque relocation approved by the city council that spurred a recall effort against local officials; and a planned Islamic campus expansion near Camp Bullis military base in San Antonio, which Roy wants federal officials to investigate. Advocacy groups and RNC attendees echoed concerns about assimilation and Western values, while some attendees pushed back, saying local voters should decide the issue.

Texas legislators are debating whether to mandate five-day school weeks after data showed the state's 4th and 8th grade reading scores now trail Mississippi's, a state once ranked near the bottom nationally. Texas Education Agency Commissioner Mike Morath told the Senate Committee on Education that Mississippi requires a 180-day school year and holds back struggling 3rd graders, while Texas schools average only 169 days, with more than 100 districts having adopted four-day weeks.

Researchers testified that four-day weeks produce modest cost savings and less bullying, but no improvement in teacher quality and increases in juvenile crime and food insecurity. Natalia ISD's superintendent described his district's academic rating falling from a "C" to an "F" under a four-day schedule before reverting to five days. Despite this, he and researcher Emily Morton stopped short of recommending a blanket mandate, instead urging guardrails similar to Indiana's, which restricts four-day weeks to high-rated districts meeting salary and access requirements. A prior 2023 bill to restrict four-day weeks passed the Senate but stalled in the House, setting up renewed debate next session.

Republicans redrew Texas' 35th Congressional District last year hoping to flip it, setting up a San Antonio-area race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and first-time candidate whose sister is Rep. Monica De La Cruz, and Democrat Johnny Garcia, a longtime Bexar County sheriff's deputy. Both are Latino men with law enforcement or military backgrounds who blur typical partisan lines: De La Cruz echoes anti-corruption, cost-cutting messaging similar to Democrats', while Garcia, a self-described "old school Democrat," breaks with his party on border policy and some social issues.

Analysts rank the 35th as a pivotal test of the GOP's mid-decade gerrymander and of whether Latino voters continue trending Republican after 2024. The district is majority Hispanic by eligible voters but leans Republican as drawn, having favored Trump by double digits last cycle. Spending has topped $9 million combined, with Trump's political network and House Majority PAC both pouring in money. Trump is set to rally for De La Cruz in San Antonio, underscoring national Republican stakes in preserving their House majority through races like this one.

President Donald Trump traveled to San Antonio to rally support for Ken Paxton's U.S. Senate campaign, his third Texas trip in under a month, amid polling showing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico within striking distance of becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas in more than three decades. Trump warned the crowd Texans would "never forgive" the state if Talarico won, using derogatory nicknames and repeating a false claim that Talarico is vegan.

The speech leaned heavily on cultural and immigration messaging, with Trump linking a potential Democratic win to border security fears and falsely claiming Democrats would eliminate oil and gas jobs. He also touted a planned firing-squad execution of a Fort Hood attacker and repeated promises of $5,000 payments to Americans and one-time Medicare payments to seniors. Gov. Greg Abbott, also on the ballot, was notably absent. The rally comes as national polls show Democrats favored to retake Congress and Trump's approval ratings sagging, raising stakes for Republicans trying to hold the Senate.

President Trump held a campaign rally at the Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio, Texas, aimed at boosting Republican candidates ahead of the midterms and bolstering Attorney General Ken Paxton's bid for U.S. Senate. Trump touted his economic and border enforcement record, criticized Democratic opponents, and set aside recent party friction to praise Paxton as a reliable ally, urging a strong GOP turnout at the polls.

The speech was repeatedly interrupted by left-wing protesters, whom Trump dismissed as paid agitators backed by foreign entities. He also mocked Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico and sharply criticized Representative Henry Cuellar, calling him "disloyal" for not switching parties after receiving a presidential pardon on federal bribery and money laundering charges. Trump urged Texas voters to defeat Cuellar in the midterms. The rally underscored Texas's significance as a Republican battleground heading into the midterm elections.

Early voting opened Monday in Texas ahead of the Nov. 3 election, running through Oct. 30. Reader responses gathered from Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio, mostly from Democrats, reflected a mix of hope and wariness about the state's political trajectory, with several citing excitement over candidates while cautioning against being "burned before" by past disappointments. Even some Republican respondents acknowledged a desire for change after decades of GOP control in the state. The sentiment underscores competitive statewide and down-ballot races being watched closely for signs of shifting political dynamics in traditionally red Texas, a factor relevant to broader election forecasting and prediction markets tracking state-level partisan trends.

Texas households received mailers this month branded as a "Texas Trans & LGBTQ+ Student Resource Guide," arriving as early voting began. The materials pointed minors toward hormones, out-of-state medical transition, and legal emancipation from parents. The Transgender Education Network of Texas (TENT), whose branding appeared throughout, denies producing or approving the pamphlet. Investigators traced it to a Wyoming-registered shell company with a nonexistent return address, prompting a forgery investigation by a local district attorney. No sender has been identified, and TENT is seeking to depose the vendors involved.

While the mailer's origin remains unconfirmed, its content echoes real debates over parental rights, gender-identity policy in schools, and state laws like Texas's bans on youth medical transition and school gender clubs.

With early voting underway in Texas through Oct. 30 ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Axios readers across Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio shared their emotions heading into the vote. More than 200 responded, mostly Democrats, who described feeling "cautiously hopeful" or "cautiously excited" about competitive statewide races, with some expressing optimism that Texas could turn more Democratic amid visible grassroots organizing. A smaller group of Republican respondents voiced frustration with both parties and skepticism of polling, while some called for political change. Many respondents, regardless of party, said they were simply exhausted by the volume of campaign ads, texts and signage this cycle.