Texas 26th Congressional District: Who Will Win the 2026 House Race?

Bo French, the Republican nominee for Texas Railroad Commissioner, sparked bipartisan backlash after posting on social media about Asian American students cheering at a University of Texas football game following a comeback win over Ohio State, calling them "foreigners" and saying they showed how "Americans have been displaced by foreigners." Two students identified in the photo, Dhairya Gupta and Rahul Kodali, said they are U.S. citizens and called the post racist; Gupta said the incident showed racism "isn't looked down upon as much as it used to be." UT Austin enrollment data show international students make up less than 10% of the student body, with Asian students, mostly U.S. citizens or permanent residents, accounting for about 22.4% of enrollment. French has refused to delete the posts, denied regret when asked directly, and said "Truth sounds like hate to those who hate the truth," using the controversy for fundraising.

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn condemned the posts as racist, warning that tolerating such intolerance is "how great political parties self-destruct," and Rep. Dan Crenshaw also criticized French. Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows and GOP representatives including Jared Patterson, Jeff Leach, Matt Shaheen, and Lacey Hull called on French to delete the posts, while former Speaker Dade Phelan called him "unfit for office." Gov. Greg Abbott said the message wasn't his but stopped short of directly condemning French, instead touting support for freezing H-1B visas at universities; he has since endorsed French, as has Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Attorney General Ken Paxton, facing a Senate primary challenge from Democrat James Talarico, deflected criticism onto Talarico rather than address French's remarks. French previously faced calls to resign as county chair over a poll on Jews versus Muslims.

One year after Gov. Greg Abbott signed Texas's mid-decade "One Big Beautiful Map," redrawing five congressional districts at President Trump's urging, polling suggests Republicans may not be reaping the gains they expected. The redistricting combined Black-majority districts in Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth and paired two Austin Democrats, while shifting South Texas seats to favor the GOP, aiming for a net five-seat pickup for Republicans nationally.

Recent Texas Southern University polling shows Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar leading in District 28 and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez ahead in District 34, despite both districts being redrawn to favor Trump. In District 15, Republican incumbent Monica De La Cruz trails Tejano musician Bobby Pulido despite a district redrawn heavily in Trump's favor. District 35, created by merging two Austin Democratic incumbents' territory, remains a contested open seat where House Speaker Mike Johnson recently campaigned for Republican Carlos De La Cruz against Democrat Johnny Garcia.

The shifting numbers, attributed partly to fallout from immigration enforcement, tariffs and inflation, complicate Republican hopes of using redistricting to offset historic midterm losses for the party controlling the White House.

Texas heads into a Nov. 3 election featuring high-profile statewide races, including Gov. Greg Abbott's contest against Democrat Gina Hinojosa and a U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Additional battles for congressional and state legislature seats are also on the ballot.

Voters interviewed at the State Fair of Texas in Dallas offered mixed predictions about the state's political trajectory. Many expressed confidence Texas will remain reliably Republican, while others, pointing to shifts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, suggested the state could be inching toward competitive territory. Several voters said economic concerns, particularly persistent inflation and reduced disposable income, are shaping their views more than party allegiance. Some cited dissatisfaction with the current presidential administration as a driving factor in their outlook.

The races are being watched closely as indicators of whether traditionally red Texas is becoming more competitive, with economic sentiment likely to play a significant role in turnout and outcomes across the state's marquee contests.

Texas households received mailers this month branded as a "Texas Trans & LGBTQ+ Student Resource Guide," arriving as early voting began. The materials pointed minors toward hormones, out-of-state medical transition, and legal emancipation from parents. The Transgender Education Network of Texas (TENT), whose branding appeared throughout, denies producing or approving the pamphlet. Investigators traced it to a Wyoming-registered shell company with a nonexistent return address, prompting a forgery investigation by a local district attorney. No sender has been identified, and TENT is seeking to depose the vendors involved.

While the mailer's origin remains unconfirmed, its content echoes real debates over parental rights, gender-identity policy in schools, and state laws like Texas's bans on youth medical transition and school gender clubs.

Texas election officials are urging voters to confirm their registration status ahead of the Oct. 5 deadline for the Nov. 3 midterm election. Status can be checked at VoteTexas.gov. Texas does not allow standalone online registration; forms must be printed, signed, and mailed, or submitted in person at a county election office or through a driver's license renewal.

More than 1.2 million Texas voters remain on the "suspense list," meaning counties have information suggesting they no longer live at their registered address; voters on the list for two federal cycles (four years) are removed from the rolls. Affected voters can update records via Texas.gov using their Voter Unique Identifier, though those who miss the deadline may still vote at their old precinct.

For mail-in voting, requests are due by Oct. 23, with eligibility limited to those absent from their county, ill or disabled, jailed but eligible, or 65 and older. Early voting runs Oct. 19–30, with Election Day on Nov. 3.

Texas' rapidly growing Muslim population, estimated between 300,000 and 500,000 (up from about 140,000 in 1990), has become a flashpoint among Republicans, drawing national attention during the RNC's Midterm Convention in Dallas. GOP officials including Reps. Keith Self, Chip Roy, and Brandon Gill, congressional candidate Brandon Herrera, and state Rep. Brian Harrison are calling for legislative and congressional action against what they describe as Islamism and Sharia law, citing new mosque construction and Islamic development projects across the state.

Specific controversies include the EPIC City development in Josephine, which Attorney General Ken Paxton's office says is linked to alleged securities law violations, prompting Gov. Greg Abbott to halt construction; a McKinney mosque relocation approved by the city council that spurred a recall effort against local officials; and a planned Islamic campus expansion near Camp Bullis military base in San Antonio, which Roy wants federal officials to investigate. Advocacy groups and RNC attendees echoed concerns about assimilation and Western values, while some attendees pushed back, saying local voters should decide the issue.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott has asked the U.S. Department of Justice to investigate ritual washing facilities for Muslim travelers at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, arguing that because the airports receive federal funds, the accommodations may violate anti-discrimination conditions attached to that funding. The Council on American-Islamic Relations' Texas chapter rejected the characterization, calling the facilities accessible public infrastructure open to all travelers, comparable to nursing rooms or interfaith prayer spaces, and describing Abbott's move as an "anti-Muslim political stunt."

The DOJ referral follows an earlier complaint Abbott filed with U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, after which DFW dropped plans to expand its ablution stations, citing uncertain benefit. Texas is home to more than 300,000 of the roughly 4.5 million Muslims in the U.S. Advocacy groups say anti-Muslim rhetoric in American politics has intensified in recent years, and Republican officials in Texas and Florida have separately labeled CAIR a terrorist organization, a claim the group disputes.

Dallas Fort Worth International Airport has abandoned an internal proposal to install wudu washing stations for Muslim travelers on the pre-security side of Terminal D, after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott publicly objected and ordered a review of state funding to the airport. Abbott argued that "government-owned airports cannot favor one religion over all others," calling the plan illegal religious discrimination at a taxpayer-funded facility. He directed a review of state grants to both DFW and Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, and asked the U.S. Department of Transportation to investigate.

DFW said the proposal, which had not reached final approval, was privately funded per a filing the airport attributed to an error by its design firm, and that it does not use taxpayer money for operations. After "elevated public interest," DFW accelerated its review and decided not to proceed, saying the project would not deliver the anticipated operational benefits. Houston's IAH has had a similar wudu facility since 2024; Abbott is pressing to have that facility investigated as well. President Trump also weighed in, amplifying coverage of the controversy.