Tennessee’s 3rd Congressional District House Race
Tennessee’s 3rd Congressional District, covering Chattanooga and the state’s southeast corner, holds its House election in 2026. The seat has been a reliable Republican stronghold for over a decade, but every midterm cycle draws fresh scrutiny of district maps and candidate fields. Primaries will determine which nominees from each party advance to the general election.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on dozens of districts like this one, where incumbency and local turnout patterns shape outcomes more than national trends. A competitive or unexpected result here could signal broader shifts in voter sentiment ahead of the midterms. Local economic conditions and candidate quality will factor heavily into the race’s trajectory.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces a multi-candidate primary and general election into a single binary question: which party ultimately holds the seat. Separate contracts let traders isolate individual candidates within the primary field before the general matchup narrows. This structure captures both intra-party uncertainty and the broader partisan contest in one tradeable framework.
Related terms
Total Volume
$44.9k
Kalshi $14.7k · Polymarket $30.2k
Leading Market
Chuck Fleischmann
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 98%
Chuck Fleischmann Volume
$29.4k
Kalshi $13.8k · Polymarket $15.7k
Chuck Fleischmann 24h Change
-11.00%
Kalshi +1.90% · Polymarket -11.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck FleischmannRepublican Party | 97.6¢ | 7.0% | , trade Chuck Fleischmann on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 98.0¢ | 5% | , trade Chuck Fleischmann on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Anna GolladayDemocratic Party | 4.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Anna Golladay on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Anna Golladay on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck FleischmannRepublican Party | $29,426.71 | ||
| Anna GolladayDemocratic Party | $15,507.12 |