Arizona’s 3rd District House Race 2026
Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, anchored in central Phoenix, heads back to the polls in November 2026 to elect its U.S. House representative. The seat has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, drawing a mix of established figures and newcomers eyeing the nomination. Primary contests in both parties will shape the field before the general election matchup is set.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to a handful of competitive districts, and AZ-03 helps shape the broader national balance of power. The outcome affects which party sets the legislative agenda in Washington and how Arizona’s congressional delegation reflects the state’s shifting political makeup. Local voters’ choices here carry weight well beyond the district itself.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is simply which party’s nominee wins the general election in November 2026. That isolates partisan control of the seat from the noise of primary field size or candidate personalities. Shifts in sentiment ahead of the primary and through the fall campaign effectively become a referendum on how durable the district’s current partisan lean really is.
Related terms
Total Volume
$18.7k
Kalshi $871.68 · Polymarket $17.8k
Leading Market
Yassamin Ansari
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 99%
Yassamin Ansari Volume
$18.2k
Kalshi $459.09 · Polymarket $17.8k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yassamin AnsariDemocratic Party | 99.3¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Republican Party | 2.8¢ | 7.0% |
|
2.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Arizona congressional candidate reports rape while repairing campaign sign
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Bernadette Greene-Placentia, the Democratic candidate challenging incumbent Rep. Abraham (Abe) Hamadeh in Arizona's 8th Congressional District, says she was raped by two unidentified men on Aug. 14 while repairing a campaign sign overnight near 99th Avenue and Bell Road in Sun City, a Phoenix suburb. She told investigators she was struck in the back of the head and knocked unconscious, waking during the assault, and described bruising on her arms consistent with being held down, a bump on her head and other injuries. She said she tried to fight back by kicking her feet, and recalled one attacker wore black boots, had small feet, and used an expletive referencing her political party. She did not seek a hospital exam or SANE kit, later telling investigators she had taken multiple showers and washed her clothing before reporting the attack to police in late August.
Greene-Placentia, 52, a former long-haul trucker, said embarrassment, shock and fear initially kept her silent, but she decided to go public to encourage other survivors to come forward, despite worries it could overshadow her campaign's focus on affordability, Medicare, SNAP, VA funding, education, water shortages and health care. She told her husband and campaign staff within days, and confided in Arizona Democratic Party treasurer Greg Freeman before reporting to police in late August. She said she has faced both support and public skepticism about her motives, which she denies, and has not heard from investigators in several weeks. Hamadeh called for a thorough investigation, including review of camera footage. The Maricopa County Sheriff's Office says detectives continue working to identify the two suspects.
Sentiment
- Sun City, Arizona Sun City is the site of a reported violent crime, a mildly negative association for the location.
- Arizona Arizona is the factual setting of the events described.
- Arizona's 8th congressional district The district is the location of the race and attack, mentioned factually.
- Democratic Party (United States) The candidate is identified as a Democrat and consulted a party treasurer, a factual mention without clear partisan benefit or harm.
- Phoenix, Arizona Sun City is described as a Phoenix suburb, a neutral geographic reference.
- United States Congress The story concerns a congressional candidate and incumbent, a neutral reference to the institution.
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Elections
Rebecca Cooke wins Democratic primary for third bid against Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin
PN Team • 2 months ago
Rebecca Cooke defeated Emily Berge in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, setting up a third consecutive matchup against Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Cooke, who grew up on a dairy farm near Eau Claire and works as a waitress and small-business owner, narrowly lost to Van Orden in 2024 by less than three percentage points after also losing the 2022 primary. She entered this year's primary with backing from the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program, while Berge campaigned as a local alternative skeptical of national party influence. Cooke holds a fundraising edge, having raised about $8.6 million to Van Orden's $7.5 million, though he retains nearly $3 million more cash on hand.
The western Wisconsin district, covering Eau Claire and La Crosse, has trended Republican in presidential races but is rated a toss-up, making it Democrats' top target in the state as they seek to retake the House majority in November. Cooke is campaigning on rural frustration over Trump administration policies, including tariffs that have hurt farm exports, cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, and rising fuel and fertilizer costs tied to the Iran conflict, while Van Orden defends his record backing Trump's agenda. The race is part of a broader Wisconsin battleground that includes the 1st District, where nurse Mitchell Berman will challenge GOP Rep. Bryan Steil, and the solid-red 7th District, won by Sean Duffy's son-in-law Michael Alfonso in the Republican primary.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's policies are cited as causing farm export losses, Medicaid/SNAP cuts, and rising costs, framing his administration negatively in this context.
- Iran Iran is mentioned as a source of the conflict contributing to rising fuel and fertilizer costs, a negative economic factor.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is mentioned as the primary context and target of the House retake effort, largely factual.
- Bryan Steil Bryan Steil is mentioned neutrally as the incumbent facing a challenger in a different district.
- Sean Duffy Sean Duffy is mentioned only tangentially as the father-in-law of a Republican primary winner.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the neutral geographic setting for the election coverage.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is mentioned factually as the incumbent party in the district without strong positive or negative framing.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced only as the general context of the election, without specific reputational implications.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is mentioned factually as the body Democrats seek to retake.
- Wisconsin's 1st congressional district Wisconsin's 1st congressional district is mentioned factually as another battleground race in the state.
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Elections
Arizona Group Home Operator Faces No Penalties Over Diabetic Boy’s Death Amid Pay-to-Play Scandal
PN Team • 2 months ago
Jakob Blodgett, a 9-year-old with Type 1 diabetes, died in 2022 after staff at an Arizona group home run by Sunshine Residential Homes missed two doses of his long-lasting insulin and told an employee to give him water instead of medication. He developed brain swelling and died on a ventilator. Despite a licensing violation from the Department of Child Safety, the state imposed no fines, suspension, or license revocation, and no criminal charges have been filed, though a sheriff's investigation continues.
The case has become entangled in Arizona politics ahead of Gov. Katie Hobbs' reelection bid. Sunshine, the state's largest group home provider, made $550,000 in political contributions benefiting Hobbs, including gifts to her inaugural and legal defense funds, before receiving a 30% rate increase. Attorney General Kris Mayes found no evidence of bribery, attributing the increase to Sunshine's leverage as a dominant provider. Republican challenger Andy Biggs has seized on the scandal, while a state auditor general investigation and a county attorney probe remain ongoing. A separate diabetic teen died at another Arizona group home in 2024.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Katie Hobbs Hobbs is directly implicated in a pay-to-play scandal involving large donations from the group home operator followed by a favorable rate increase, damaging her reputation ahead of reelection.
- Andy Biggs Biggs is portrayed as a political challenger seizing on the scandal to criticize his opponent, casting him in a proactive, favorable light relative to the controversy.
- Arizona Arizona's state agencies failed to penalize the group home operator despite a child's death, reflecting poorly on state oversight and governance.
- Kris Mayes Mayes cleared the arrangement of bribery but the finding appears to gloss over apparent conflicts, giving a mildly negative or unresolved tint to her credibility.
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Elections
Arizona Poll Shows Democrats Leading Statewide Races
PN Team • 3 days ago
A new HighGround poll shows Democrats ahead in Arizona's top statewide races one week before Election Day. Gov. Katie Hobbs leads Republican Andy Biggs, Democrat Adrian Fontes leads Republican Alexander Kolodin for secretary of state, and Democrat Kris Mayes leads Republican Warren Petersen for attorney general. The results are notable in a state where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 300,000 voters.
Leading GOP candidates have embraced or been endorsed by President Donald Trump, which helped in primaries but appears to be a drag in the general election as Trump's approval rating has slipped. Analysts note undecided voters remain limited, though races could still tighten before polls close.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Poll shows Democratic candidates leading in multiple statewide races.
- Donald Trump His endorsement and slipping approval are cited as a drag on GOP candidates.
- Katie Hobbs Shown leading her reelection race in the poll.
- Adrian Fontes Shown leading his race for secretary of state in the poll.
- Kris Mayes Leading her race for attorney general according to the poll.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates are trailing and described as weighed down by Trump's slipping approval.
- Andy Biggs Trailing in the gubernatorial race per the poll results.
- Warren Petersen Trailing in the attorney general race per the poll.
- Alexander Kolodin Described as trailing his Democratic opponent in the poll.
- Arizona Factual description of the state's political landscape and voter registration gap.
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Elections
Arizona congressional candidate reports sexual assault while repairing campaign signs
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Bernadette Greene-Placentia, the Democratic candidate challenging Republican Rep. Abe Hamadeh in Arizona's 8th Congressional District, says she was knocked unconscious and raped by two men in mid-August while repairing campaign signs overnight in Sun City. She told investigators she fought back by kicking at her attackers and sustained bruises, a head injury and other marks from being held down. She said one attacker used a profanity referencing her political party, though she does not know if the attack was politically motivated or a crime of opportunity.
Greene-Placentia, 52, a former long-haul trucker, told her husband and campaign staff soon after the attack but waited until late August to report it to police, citing shame and shock. She went public this week to encourage other survivors to come forward. The Maricopa County Sheriff's Office declined to comment on its investigation. Hamadeh called the allegations "disturbing" and urged a thorough investigation. The race is for a reliably Republican seat in metro Phoenix.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Sun City, Arizona Sun City is named as the location of a violent sexual assault, associating the town with a serious crime.
- Democratic Party (United States) The victim's party affiliation is mentioned as a possible motive for the attack, a tangential factual reference without reflecting on the party itself.
- Republican Party (United States) Hamadeh, a Republican, responds appropriately to the allegations, but the party's mention is largely contextual regarding the district's political lean.
- Arizona Arizona is the setting for the congressional race and incident, a neutral geographic reference.
- Phoenix, Arizona Phoenix is mentioned only as the metro area context for the district, a neutral factual detail.
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Elections
Arizona congressional candidate says she was sexually assaulted while repairing campaign signs
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Bernadette Greene-Placentia, a Democrat challenging Republican Rep. Abe Hamadeh for Arizona's 8th Congressional District, says she was knocked unconscious and sexually assaulted by two men in mid-August while repairing campaign signs overnight in Sun City. She told investigators she was held down, suffered a head injury and bruising, and recalled few details about her attackers beyond one wearing black boots. She does not know if the attack was politically motivated or a crime of opportunity.
Greene-Placentia told a friend and Democratic Party official about the assault days later but did not report it to police until late August, citing shock and embarrassment. The Maricopa County Sheriff's Office is investigating but declined to comment. Hamadeh called the allegations disturbing and urged a thorough investigation. Greene-Placentia, a former long-haul trucker turned political candidate, said she chose to speak publicly to encourage other survivors to come forward.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Sun City, Arizona Named as the specific location where the sexual assault occurred, directly associating the town with a troubling crime.
- Arizona Setting of the alleged assault involving a congressional candidate, a tangential but somewhat negative context for the state.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned only as the party of the candidate and the official she confided in, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Referenced as the party of Rep. Hamadeh, who responded appropriately by calling for a thorough investigation.
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Elections
Maloy and Udell meet in Utah House debate ahead of midterms
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
Utah's U.S. House race is drawing attention ahead of the midterms as Republican Rep. Celeste Maloy debated Democratic challenger Kent Udell on Friday in St. George. Maloy, who has represented Utah's 2nd Congressional District since 2023, is running this cycle in the newly drawn 3rd Congressional District following mid-decade redistricting. She secured the GOP nomination after defeating former state Rep. Phil Lyman in a June primary, triggered when neither candidate won outright at the state convention.
Udell, a retired University of Utah mechanical engineering professor, ran unopposed for the Democratic nomination. The 3rd District spans southern and eastern Utah, including Provo and St. George, and is considered heavily Republican territory, with the Cook Political Report rating it "Solid R." The debate, hosted by the Utah Debate Commission and PBS Utah, gave voters a direct look at both candidates as the race heads toward November, though the contest is not viewed as competitive for control of the House.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Utah Utah is the setting for a routine political debate, a neutral factual reference.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned factually as Udell's party affiliation without evaluative framing.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned factually as Maloy's party affiliation without evaluative framing.
- United States House of Representatives The House race context is factual and not tied to any reputational judgment of the institution.
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Elections
North Texas voters to decide 12 U.S. House races on Nov. 3
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Twelve U.S. House seats covering the Dallas-Fort Worth area are on the Nov. 3 midterm ballot, with early voting running Oct. 19-30. Most races feature Republican incumbents—Keith Self, Pat Fallon, Lance Gooden, Jake Ellzey, Craig Goldman, Ronny Jackson, Beth Van Duyne and Roger Williams—facing Democratic challengers, plus a Libertarian in District 26. Three open seats stand out: District 30, vacated by Jasmine Crockett after her Senate run; and Districts 32 and 33, left open by Julie Johnson and Marc Veasey, respectively, after mid-decade redistricting reshaped them from Democratic-leaning to Republican-favored territory. In District 33, Colin Allred faces Patrick David Gillespie. Results are expected after 7 p.m. on Election Day.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as the party of most incumbents running for reelection.
- Beth Van Duyne Listed as an incumbent facing a Democratic challenger without further detail.
- Craig Goldman Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Dallas Referenced indirectly as part of the Dallas-Fort Worth area covered by the races.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as the party of challengers and one open-seat candidate.
- Jake Ellzey Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Keith Self Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Lance Gooden Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Pat Fallon Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Roger Williams (Texas politician) Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Ronny Jackson Listed as an incumbent facing a challenger without further detail.
- Tarrant County, Texas Referenced indirectly as part of the Dallas-Fort Worth area covered by the races.
- Texas The article is about North Texas congressional races within the state.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced factually as the body whose seats are up for election.
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Elections
Arizona Attorney General Race Draws Scrutiny Amid Mayes Prosecution Ties
PN Team • 2 days ago
Family and friends of an indicted Arizona official are funding the Republican campaign challenging Attorney General Kris Mayes, who is prosecuting their relative, raising questions about conflicts in the 2026 race. Separately, the long-running "Gilbert Goons" case tied to the murder of teenager Preston Lord continues three years on, with defendants contesting charges, disputes over whether trials stay in Maricopa County, and at least one defendant back in custody. Both stories intersect with ongoing debates over Arizona's justice system, prosecutorial independence, and political fundraising ahead of statewide elections.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Kris Mayes Portrayed as facing a politically funded challenge tied to a conflict-of-interest controversy over her prosecution.
- Arizona State's justice system and political fundraising practices are questioned amid overlapping controversies.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party backing a campaign funded by relatives of an indicted official, implying potential conflict.
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Elections
Andy Biggs Says Charlie Kirk Recruited Him for Arizona Governor Run
PN Team • 1 day ago
Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs says the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk personally recruited him to run for Arizona governor. Turning Point, the organization Kirk founded, is now spending $18.1 million to help elect Biggs, underscoring the group's continued political influence in the state's 2026 governor's race. The disclosure came as part of a broader Arizona news roundup that also covered Phoenix Symphony musician layoffs, Justice Department election monitors headed to Arizona for Nov. 3, and a Hobbs veto pushing Republicans to take a drug-cartel terrorism classification measure directly to voters.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Andy Biggs Portrayed as personally recruited for governor by a prominent figure, boosting his political standing.
- Phoenix, Arizona Mentioned only in connection with symphony musician layoffs, a mildly negative local detail.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party Biggs belongs to in context of a governor's race and policy push.
- Arizona Setting for a factual political news roundup without specific praise or criticism.
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Arizona’s 4th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
96.5%
Greg Stanton
Vol $10k
Arizona’s 5th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
85.5%
Mark Lamb
Vol $45.3k
How Many House Seats Will Democrats Win in Arizona in 2026?
Leading:
48.5%
5
Vol $602.95
Arizona’s 8th Congressional District House Race Winner
Leading:
87%
Abe Hamadeh
Vol $6.6k
Who Will Win Arizona’s 9th Congressional District House Seat?
Leading:
97.5%
Paul Gosar
Vol $21.4k
New Mexico’s 3rd District House Race Heads Toward 2026 Vote
Leading:
96.5%
Teresa Leger Fernandez
Vol $7.6k
Arizona’s 6th District House Race 2026
Leading:
88.5%
Joanna Mendak
Vol $162.8k
Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District House Race
Leading:
98.5%
Sarah Elfreth
Vol $27.8k