Tennessee’s 9th District House Race Winner
Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District, anchored in Memphis, heads to voters in the November 2026 midterms to pick its U.S. House representative. The seat has long been a reliable Democratic stronghold in an otherwise heavily Republican state delegation. Local dynamics, candidate strength, and turnout will shape who ultimately claims the seat.
Why Markets Are Watching
Memphis-area politics carry weight beyond the district itself, reflecting broader questions about urban Democratic turnout and representation in a conservative-leaning state. The outcome will factor into the overall partisan composition of the U.S. House. Any surprise result would signal shifting coalitions in a historically safe district.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
This market reduces a multi-candidate congressional contest to a binary question: which party wins the seat. It isolates partisan control as the key variable, stripping away local campaign narratives to focus purely on the general-election result. Traders are effectively weighing the durability of Democratic dominance in this district against any Republican inroads.
Related terms
Total Volume
$232k
Kalshi $206.1k · Polymarket $25.9k
Leading Market
Brent Taylor
Kalshi 84% · Polymarket 84%
Brent Taylor Volume
$40k
Kalshi $25.3k · Polymarket $14.7k
Brent Taylor 24h Change
+1.00%
Kalshi +1.00% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent TaylorRepublican Party | 84.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Brent Taylor on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 84.0¢ | 5% | , trade Brent Taylor on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Justin J. PearsonDemocratic Party | 17.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Justin J. Pearson on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 18.0¢ | 5% | , trade Justin J. Pearson on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent TaylorRepublican Party | $40,027.62 | ||
| Justin J. PearsonDemocratic Party | $191,949.96 |