Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District House Race
Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District, anchored in suburban areas between Baltimore and Washington, D.C., holds its 2026 House election this November. The seat has long leaned Democratic, but primaries and candidate matchups will shape how competitive the general election becomes. Voters will choose a representative to serve a two-year term in the U.S. House.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often hinges on margins in dozens of competitive and safe seats alike, making every district’s result part of the broader national picture. A Maryland district with a strong partisan lean can still reveal shifts in turnout or voter sentiment that signal trends ahead of the midterms. Local results also affect which party sets the legislative agenda in Washington.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is simple: which party’s nominee wins the general election in MD-03. Because the district has a known partisan tilt, the contract effectively isolates how much uncertainty remains around an expected outcome. Traders are weighing whether historical patterns hold or whether a shift in candidate strength or turnout could change the result.
Related terms
Total Volume
$46.6k
Kalshi $2.4k · Polymarket $44.2k
Leading Market
Sarah Elfreth
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 99%
Sarah Elfreth Volume
$29.3k
Kalshi $1.5k · Polymarket $27.8k
Sarah Elfreth 24h Change
-2.40%
Kalshi -2.40% · Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah ElfrethDemocratic Party | 98.7¢ | 7.0% | , trade Sarah Elfreth on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Sarah Elfreth on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Bernie FlowersRepublican Party | 2.9¢ | 7.0% | , trade Bernie Flowers on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Bernie Flowers on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah ElfrethDemocratic Party | $29,261.33 | ||
| Bernie FlowersRepublican Party | $17,361.66 |