Tennessee’s 5th District House Race: Who Will Win
Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District, anchored by Nashville and surrounding suburban and rural counties, heads to the polls in 2026 to pick its next U.S. House representative. The seat has shifted in recent cycles following redistricting that split Nashville into multiple districts, reshaping its partisan lean. Candidates from both major parties are positioning for a contest that will test how durable those boundary changes are.
Why Markets Are Watching
The outcome matters for control of Tennessee’s congressional delegation and for the broader fight over the U.S. House majority. A district reconfigured to favor one party is a test case for how redistricting translates into actual votes. Local turnout patterns here could also signal broader trends across Southern suburban and exurban districts.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is simple: which party, and ultimately which candidate, wins the TN-05 seat. Separate contracts isolate individual contenders, letting traders express views on primary outcomes as well as the general election. This structure effectively breaks the race into sequential layers of uncertainty, from nomination to final result, rather than treating it as one binary outcome.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Redistricting -
Tennessee -
Electoral district -
Nashville, Tennessee -
Tennessee's 5th congressional district
Total Volume
$63.2k
Kalshi $56.9k · Polymarket $6.2k
Leading Market
Charlie Hatcher
Kalshi 89% · Polymarket 91%
Charlie Hatcher Volume
$15.2k
Kalshi $14.4k · Polymarket $782.12
Charlie Hatcher 24h Change
+2.00%
Kalshi +2.00% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie HatcherRepublican Party | 90.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Charlie Hatcher on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 91.0¢ | 5% | , trade Charlie Hatcher on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Chaz MostertDemocratic Party | 11.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Chaz Mostert on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 11.0¢ | 5% | , trade Chaz Mostert on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie HatcherRepublican Party | $15,154.03 | ||
| Chaz MostertDemocratic Party | $48,000.42 |