NJ-09 House winner?
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Nellie Pou
Total Volume
$27.1k
Kalshi $15.7k · Polymarket $11.4k
Leading Market
Nellie Pou
Kalshi 96% · Polymarket 98%
Nellie Pou Volume
$16.1k
Kalshi $12.8k · Polymarket $3.3k
Nellie Pou 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi -0.20% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nellie PouDemocratic Party | 98.1¢ | 7.0% |
|
98.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Rosie PinoRepublican Party | 3.7¢ | 7.0% |
|
4.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Congress
GOP attacks Long Island Democrats over vote against bill funding 9/11 health program
PN Team • 2 months ago
Republicans are targeting Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen, both New York Democrats, for voting against a federal spending bill that included funding for the World Trade Center Health Program, despite both having previously touted their support for the program. The bill, HR 7148, passed the House 217-214 on Feb. 3 and was signed by President Trump, ending a four-day government shutdown. It provided funding for several federal departments and extended the WTC health program's funding formula through 2040 to address rising medical costs for 9/11 responders and survivors.
Most Democrats opposed the bill amid a standoff over ICE funding, though 21 Democrats, including Reps. Josh Gottheimer and James Clyburn, voted for it. The National Republican Congressional Committee accused Suozzi and Gillen of hypocrisy given their earlier statements backing the health program. Both campaigns pushed back, with Suozzi's team calling it a partisan attack and Gillen's spokesperson citing her personal ties to 9/11 and record of advocacy. Both Long Island Democrats face competitive re-election races in November.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) Most Democrats, including the two named lawmakers, are portrayed as voting against 9/11 health funding despite prior support, creating an image of hypocrisy.
- Josh Gottheimer Gottheimer is cited as one of the Democrats who voted for the bill, casting him favorably compared to colleagues who opposed it.
- Donald Trump Trump is noted simply as having signed the bill, a neutral-to-positive factual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown proactively criticizing Democrats and highlighting their role in passing the funding bill and ending the shutdown.
- Long Island Long Island is referenced as home to the two Democrats facing criticism for their votes, tying the location to the controversy.
- United States The U.S. is mentioned only in context of federal government funding and shutdown, a neutral factual reference.
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2028 Cycle
2028 GOP presidential field expands as Trump’s approval sags
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
The list of Republicans weighing 2028 presidential bids is growing as President Trump's approval ratings decline and Democrats appear favored for a strong showing in the November midterms. Sen. John Kennedy recently joined a field that already includes former Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Ted Cruz, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and possibly Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Some hopefuls are positioning themselves to inherit the MAGA base, including Donald Trump Jr., who denies interest but polls strongly among hypothetical candidates. Others, like Christie, are distancing themselves from Trump's legacy, arguing Vice President J.D. Vance would be hurt by association with an unpopular administration.
Polling shows Vance still leads the GOP field but has lost ground, with Trump Jr. gaining support. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also draw notable backing, while Nikki Haley says she won't run. Cruz and Vance have publicly sparred, with most contenders waiting on midterm results before deciding.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is described as having declining approval ratings and being a political liability some are distancing from.
- Donald Trump Jr. Trump Jr. is shown gaining support in polls as a rising contender despite denying interest.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are noted as favored to perform well in the midterms, a mild positive signal.
- Marco Rubio Rubio is mentioned as drawing notable backing among potential candidates.
- Chris Christie Christie is portrayed as a strategic critic distancing himself from Trump, a neutral-to-slightly favorable positioning.
- JD Vance Vance leads the field but is losing ground and seen as vulnerable due to association with Trump.
- Rand Paul Paul is listed among the expanding GOP field, a neutral mention.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP field is depicted as fractured and uncertain amid Trump's declining approval, a mildly unfavorable context.
- Ron DeSantis DeSantis is listed among potential 2028 candidates, a neutral mention.
- Ted Cruz Cruz is noted for publicly sparring with Vance, suggesting internal party conflict.
- Texas Texas is mentioned only as Abbott's state, a neutral factual reference.
- United States The United States is the general setting for the political narrative without specific reputational framing.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced only as the chamber where several named politicians serve.
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Elections
Lamont, Fazio spar over polls, housing, spending in Connecticut governor’s race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont and Republican challenger Ryan Fazio remain at odds on nearly every major issue as the November election nears, including whether the race itself is close. Fazio claims internal polling shows a single-digit contest, but Lamont denied this, saying "he's making that up." Public polls from Quinnipiac University and Sacred Heart University show Lamont leading by double digits, and Morning Consult ranked him among the most popular governors nationally.
The candidates also clash on affordable housing, with Fazio pushing to scale back the state's 8-30g zoning law and Lamont favoring increased housing supply. On the economy, Fazio criticizes state spending growth and proposes income tax and electric bill cuts, while Lamont points to balanced budgets and reduced public benefits charges. Both spar over disgraced former state official Kosta Diamantis, convicted of corruption and now a fugitive in Greece. The candidates also disagree on debate scheduling, with only two debates set for late October, and each is spending heavily on advertising ahead of the vote.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ned Lamont Lamont is shown leading in public polls, ranked among the most popular governors, and touting balanced budgets, portraying him favorably.
- Democratic Party (United States) Lamont is a Democrat and the party is implicitly referenced through his campaign, but no direct partisan commentary is made.
- Republican Party (United States) Fazio is the Republican challenger, mentioned neutrally in a factual campaign contrast.
- Connecticut Connecticut is the setting of the governor's race, mentioned factually.
- State governments of the United States State government spending and budgets are discussed factually without clear reputational tilt.
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Elections
New Jersey general election set for November 3, 2026
PN Team • 1 week ago
New Jersey holds its general election on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with voter registration closed as of October 13 and mail-in ballot requests due by October 27. Polls are open 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. statewide. Top races include the U.S. Senate contest, where Democratic incumbent Cory Booker faces Republican Justin Murphy and several third-party and write-in candidates. All 12 of New Jersey's House seats are also on the ballot, with the 2nd Congressional District drawing particular attention as Republican incumbent Jeff Van Drew, who switched parties in 2019, defends his seat against Democratic challenger Zack Mullock, mayor of Cape May, and independent Ramon Mora Jr.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Cory Booker Booker is presented neutrally as the Democratic incumbent facing a challenger.
- Jeff Van Drew Van Drew is noted for having switched parties in 2019, a mildly controversial detail amid a competitive re-election bid.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of Booker and Mullock in a neutral, factual context.
- New Jersey New Jersey is the setting for the election, described factually.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned as the party of Murphy and Van Drew in a neutral factual context.
- United States House of Representatives All House seats are on the ballot, mentioned factually with no evaluative content.
- United States Senate The Senate race is described neutrally as part of the election.
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Congress
House GOP members skip party’s midterm convention as Jeffries weighs discipline for Democratic defectors
PN Team • 2 months ago
Many Republicans facing tough November races are avoiding next week's GOP midterm convention in Dallas, the first held by a major party in over four decades. A POLITICO survey found roughly 45 of more than 70 GOP candidates and members contacted are skipping or undecided, citing scheduling conflicts, high attendance fees, and reluctance to appear alongside President Donald Trump, who is set to headline with Vice President JD Vance. Top leaders including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune plan to attend, along with 2028 hopefuls like Sen. Ted Cruz.
Separately, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is weighing disciplinary action against Reps. Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after the two Democrats helped Republicans pass a procedural rule, prompting a referral to the caucus's rules panel. Other pending items include a bipartisan bill policing lawmaker misconduct, a possible September floor vote on Russia sanctions legislation, and an unresolved GOP split over regulating data centers ahead of the midterms.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's presence is cited as a reason many Republicans are avoiding the convention, implying reputational friction within his party.
- Republican Party (United States) Many GOP candidates are avoiding their own party's convention, suggesting internal discomfort and division ahead of midterms.
- Ted Cruz Cruz is mentioned attending as a 2028 hopeful, a positive visibility signal.
- John Thune Thune is noted as a top leader attending the convention, reflecting steady leadership engagement.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is mentioned amid internal discipline discussions over defectors, reflecting mild internal strain.
- Hakeem Jeffries Jeffries is portrayed as considering disciplinary action against his own members, a neutral-to-slightly-tense leadership moment.
- Dallas Dallas is mentioned as the neutral host city for the convention.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned as the setting for legislative activity without specific reputational framing.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced factually as part of the legislative context.
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Administration Watch
New Jersey Importer Sues Over Trump’s 50% Tariffs on Canadian Goods
PN Team • 1 week ago
The Gellert Global Group, a New Jersey-based importer of Canadian cheese, has filed suit in the U.S. Court of International Trade challenging President Trump's use of Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 to impose 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods. The dormant, Depression-era statute had never before been used in a trade dispute. Trump invoked it in August over alleged Canadian discrimination against U.S. dairy, auto, and alcohol exports, triggering retaliatory tariffs from Ottawa and a later outright ban on nearly $1 billion in Canadian products. The Liberty Justice Center, representing Gellert, argues newer trade laws superseded this authority, following its earlier Supreme Court win against other Trump tariffs. The White House says it will vigorously defend the measure.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's use of a dormant 1930s statute to impose steep tariffs is being legally challenged as an overreach of authority.
- United States The U.S. is the site of legal and trade controversy stemming from the tariff policy, a mixed but largely neutral mention.
- New Jersey New Jersey is mentioned only as the location of the importer bringing the lawsuit, a neutral factual detail.
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Congress
Markey defeats Moulton in Massachusetts Senate primary, resisting generational-change push
PN Team • 2 months ago
Sen. Ed Markey, 80, has defeated Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, in Massachusetts' Democratic Senate primary, turning back a generational-change challenge to secure his party's nomination for a third full term. Moulton, a Marine veteran and moderate, argued Markey's decades in Washington hadn't delivered results, while Markey rallied progressives by citing his 2022 climate legislation and backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Moulton also faced criticism over 2024 remarks on transgender athletes, which he apologized for; in his concession speech he pledged to support Markey and said his campaign had started necessary conversations. Markey, who beat Joe Kennedy III in 2020, now advances as the favorite against Republican John Deaton, who was unopposed in his primary and previously lost to Warren by about 20 points, and Markey says he won't seek a fourth term if reelected.
Similar generational contests played out down-ballot: Rep. Stephen Lynch, 71, defeated attorney Patrick Roath, 39, in the 8th District, and Rep. Richard Neal, 77, defeated progressive teacher Jeromie Whalen, 39, in the 1st District, with older incumbents prevailing in both races. A crowded six-way race also continues to replace Moulton in the 6th District, led by Dan Koh and state Rep. Tram Nguyen. Because Massachusetts leans heavily Democratic, these primaries effectively decide the general election winners in November.
Sentiment
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement is portrayed as helping Markey rally progressive support, a mildly favorable association.
- Bernie Sanders Sanders' endorsement helped Markey rally progressives, reflecting positively on his influence.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic primary contest is central to the story, reflecting the party's internal generational debate but without clear reputational harm or benefit.
- Elizabeth Warren Warren is mentioned as an endorser of Markey and as having previously defeated Deaton, a neutral-to-mildly favorable factual mention.
- Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. is referenced negatively by Moulton as symbolic of Markey's long tenure failing to deliver results.
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is the setting of the elections, mentioned factually without clear reputational impact.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican John Deaton is mentioned as the general election opponent in a factual, neutral context.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced factually as the body Markey has served in for decades.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned factually as the chamber Moulton, Lynch, and Neal serve in.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is the subject of the primary race, mentioned factually.
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Congress
Gottheimer marks third anniversary of Oct. 7 attack with new legislative push
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer marked the third anniversary of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel by unveiling a package of bipartisan measures honoring victims, hostages and survivors. The event was held in Tenafly, New Jersey, alongside the family of Edan Alexander, a local native who was held captive in Gaza for 584 days before his release in May 2025.
The October 7 Remembrance Resolution, backed by 50 co-sponsors, commemorates the attack, reaffirms Israel's right to self-defense, supports a Gaza free of Hamas rule and condemns rising antisemitism. Gottheimer also renewed support for the Oct. 7 Congressional Gold Medal Act, the Oct. 7 Remembrance Education Act, and new legislation pressuring the United Nations to designate Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations. He cited a surge in antisemitic incidents since 2023, noting New Jersey ranked third nationally and Bergen County recorded the state's highest total.
Other New Jersey and New York officials, including Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Gov. Kathy Hochul, also issued statements marking the anniversary and condemning antisemitism.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Josh Gottheimer Gottheimer is portrayed favorably as leading bipartisan efforts to honor victims and combat antisemitism.
- Bergen County, New Jersey Bergen County is cited for recording the state's highest total of antisemitic incidents.
- Israel Israel is portrayed sympathetically as the victim of the attack whose right to self-defense is reaffirmed.
- New Jersey New Jersey is cited for ranking third nationally in antisemitic incidents, a negative statistic.
- United States The United States is referenced via its House of Representatives and legislative context without strong valence.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is referenced as the body advancing bipartisan legislation, a neutral institutional mention.
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Elections
Sen. Husted Defends Vote Against Resolution to End Iran Conflict
PN Team • 1 month ago
Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) defended his tie-breaking vote against a Senate resolution that would have ended U.S. military involvement in the conflict with Iran, even as he publicly called for the fighting to stop. Speaking at a Friday news conference after touring an alloy manufacturing plant, Husted said any resolution must come "on terms acceptable to the United States," citing Iran's history of supporting terrorism and warning that a nuclear-armed Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz would push gas prices even higher.
The vote comes amid stalled peace talks that have dragged on for months, drawing billions in taxpayer funds and contributing to rising gas prices. Husted is currently in a tight Ohio Senate race against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, adding political weight to his stance on the war's continuation and the terms under which it might end.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Iran Iran is portrayed negatively as a terrorism-supporting nation whose actions threaten global oil supply and gas prices.
- United States Referenced neutrally as the country whose military involvement and interests are being debated.
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Elections
Vermont purges 900 voters from rolls after motor voter registration errors
PN Team • 2 months ago
Vermont election officials removed roughly 900 people from the state's voter rolls after an audit found they had been mistakenly registered through the state's "motor voter" program, which automatically registers people to vote when applying for a driver's license. Officials said the errors, attributed to human mistakes during procedure changes and IT upgrades over 25 years, mistakenly sent about 20,000 names to the secretary of state's office despite those people having opted out. Most had registered elsewhere and remained on the rolls; about 900 had not and were removed. None of the affected individuals had ever cast a ballot, officials said, so no past elections were affected.
Democratic Secretary of State Sarah Copeland Hanzas and Republican Governor Phil Scott jointly disclosed the issue, framing their transparency as a model amid national scrutiny of election administration. The cleanup, prompted partly by a similar scandal in New Jersey involving noncitizen registrations, comes as courts weigh President Trump's push to restrict mail-in voting ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. It remains unclear how many of the removed registrants were ineligible due to citizenship status. Officials defended Vermont's mail balloting system as secure despite the disclosed errors.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) A Democratic secretary of state is portrayed positively for transparently disclosing and addressing the registration errors.
- New Jersey New Jersey is referenced as the site of a similar voter registration scandal involving noncitizens, a negative association.
- Republican Party (United States) A Republican governor is portrayed positively for jointly disclosing the issue in a bipartisan, transparent manner.
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned tangentially in connection with broader national debates over mail-in voting restrictions, without direct portrayal in this story.
- Vermont Vermont faces mild reputational scrutiny over voter roll errors but is also credited for transparency and having a secure system with no impact on past elections.
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New Jersey’s 3rd District House Race
Leading:
97.5%
Herb Conaway
Vol $31.4k
New Jersey’s 4th District House Race
Leading:
92.5%
Chris Smith
Vol $10.8k
How Many House Seats Will Democrats Win in New Jersey in 2026?
Leading:
57.5%
10
Vol $2.3k
New Jersey’s 10th District House Race 2026
Leading:
98.5%
LaMonica McIver
Vol $79.4k
New Jersey’s 1st Congressional District: Who Wins the House Seat?
Leading:
97.5%
Donald Norcross
Vol $10.9k
New Jersey’s 12th District House Race 2026
Leading:
97.5%
Adam Hamawy
Vol $30.1k
NJ-05 House winner?
Leading:
96.5%
Josh Gottheimer
Vol $36k
New Jersey’s 8th District House Race 2026
Leading:
98%
Rob Menendez
Vol $30.5k