Total Volume
$45k
Kalshi $6k · Polymarket $39k
Leading Market
Luke Bronin
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 98%
Luke Bronin Volume
$17.5k
Kalshi $5.2k · Polymarket $12.4k
Luke Bronin 24h Change
-1.90%
Kalshi -1.90% · Polymarket 0.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke BroninDemocratic Party | 99.7¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Amy ChaiRepublican Party | 2.8¢ | 7.0% |
|
2.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Congress
Markey defeats Moulton in Massachusetts Senate primary, resisting generational-change push
PN Team • 2 months ago
Sen. Ed Markey, 80, has defeated Rep. Seth Moulton, 47, in Massachusetts' Democratic Senate primary, turning back a generational-change challenge to secure his party's nomination for a third full term. Moulton, a Marine veteran and moderate, argued Markey's decades in Washington hadn't delivered results, while Markey rallied progressives by citing his 2022 climate legislation and backing from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Moulton also faced criticism over 2024 remarks on transgender athletes, which he apologized for; in his concession speech he pledged to support Markey and said his campaign had started necessary conversations. Markey, who beat Joe Kennedy III in 2020, now advances as the favorite against Republican John Deaton, who was unopposed in his primary and previously lost to Warren by about 20 points, and Markey says he won't seek a fourth term if reelected.
Similar generational contests played out down-ballot: Rep. Stephen Lynch, 71, defeated attorney Patrick Roath, 39, in the 8th District, and Rep. Richard Neal, 77, defeated progressive teacher Jeromie Whalen, 39, in the 1st District, with older incumbents prevailing in both races. A crowded six-way race also continues to replace Moulton in the 6th District, led by Dan Koh and state Rep. Tram Nguyen. Because Massachusetts leans heavily Democratic, these primaries effectively decide the general election winners in November.
Sentiment
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement is portrayed as helping Markey rally progressive support, a mildly favorable association.
- Bernie Sanders Sanders' endorsement helped Markey rally progressives, reflecting positively on his influence.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic primary contest is central to the story, reflecting the party's internal generational debate but without clear reputational harm or benefit.
- Elizabeth Warren Warren is mentioned as an endorser of Markey and as having previously defeated Deaton, a neutral-to-mildly favorable factual mention.
- Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. is referenced negatively by Moulton as symbolic of Markey's long tenure failing to deliver results.
- Massachusetts Massachusetts is the setting of the elections, mentioned factually without clear reputational impact.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican John Deaton is mentioned as the general election opponent in a factual, neutral context.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced factually as the body Markey has served in for decades.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned factually as the chamber Moulton, Lynch, and Neal serve in.
- United States Senate The Senate seat is the subject of the primary race, mentioned factually.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Lamont, Fazio spar over polls, housing, spending in Connecticut governor’s race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont and Republican challenger Ryan Fazio remain at odds on nearly every major issue as the November election nears, including whether the race itself is close. Fazio claims internal polling shows a single-digit contest, but Lamont denied this, saying "he's making that up." Public polls from Quinnipiac University and Sacred Heart University show Lamont leading by double digits, and Morning Consult ranked him among the most popular governors nationally.
The candidates also clash on affordable housing, with Fazio pushing to scale back the state's 8-30g zoning law and Lamont favoring increased housing supply. On the economy, Fazio criticizes state spending growth and proposes income tax and electric bill cuts, while Lamont points to balanced budgets and reduced public benefits charges. Both spar over disgraced former state official Kosta Diamantis, convicted of corruption and now a fugitive in Greece. The candidates also disagree on debate scheduling, with only two debates set for late October, and each is spending heavily on advertising ahead of the vote.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ned Lamont Lamont is shown leading in public polls, ranked among the most popular governors, and touting balanced budgets, portraying him favorably.
- Democratic Party (United States) Lamont is a Democrat and the party is implicitly referenced through his campaign, but no direct partisan commentary is made.
- Republican Party (United States) Fazio is the Republican challenger, mentioned neutrally in a factual campaign contrast.
- Connecticut Connecticut is the setting of the governor's race, mentioned factually.
- State governments of the United States State government spending and budgets are discussed factually without clear reputational tilt.
Related Events
Related Events
Local & State
Connecticut towns roll out speed cameras near schools
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Hartford has received state approval to install speed cameras near six school zones, including Jumoke Academy, S.A.N.D. Elementary, Achievement First, Alfred E. Burr Middle School and Bulkeley High School, McDonough Middle School, and Expeditionary Learning Academy at Moylan School. The Connecticut Department of Transportation signed off on the plan within the past week, joining a growing list of municipalities adopting automated enforcement statewide.
Drivers who speed past posted camera signs face a $50 fine for a first offense and $75 for subsequent violations, plus an operator fee, issued as a municipal citation rather than a moving violation reported to the DMV or insurers. Camera locations must be shared with services like Google Maps and Waze. West Hartford, approved in late April, expects cameras active within two to three months and will offer a 30-day warning period before fines begin. Stamford plans to activate 14 cameras across seven school zones this month. Middletown, an early adopter, has already seen reduced speeds near its camera site. Officials describe the effort as a safety measure, not a revenue tool.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Hartford, Connecticut Hartford is implementing a proactive school-safety measure, reflecting positively on the city.
- Stamford, Connecticut Stamford is actively expanding camera enforcement for safety, a modestly positive mention.
- Connecticut Connecticut is the broader context for a statewide safety initiative, portrayed positively but tangentially.
Related Events
Related Events
In the News
Historic Hartford Black Episcopal church cuts pastor to part-time amid decline
PN Team • 1 month ago
St. Monica's Episcopal Church, a 122-year-old pillar of Hartford's North End and historically Black congregation, has reduced its pastor, the Rev. Tracy Johnson-Russell, to half-time due to shrinking membership and finances. She now leads services every other Sunday, with parishioners running the liturgy on off weeks. Attendance has fallen from 104 average Sunday worshippers in 2015 to 61 in 2024, with a median congregant age of 60. Church leaders point to a broader trend: nationally, roughly four in 10 Episcopal churches lack full-time clergy, and part-time clergy arrangements are increasingly common.
Johnson-Russell describes the situation as part of a longer pattern of "benign neglect" toward Black Episcopal congregations, arguing they need full-time pastoral presence to grow. Other historically Black churches in Connecticut have fared worse: St. Andrew's in New Haven closed over diocesan debt, and St. Luke's, the state's oldest Black Episcopal church, now has less than quarter-time clergy. St. Monica's continues operating a food pantry and subsidized housing while trying to attract younger members, even as it adapts to reduced pastoral hours.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Connecticut Connecticut is mentioned as the setting where multiple historically Black Episcopal churches are struggling or closing.
- Hartford, Connecticut Hartford is the location of the church facing decline, a mildly negative association.
Related Events
Related Events
Congress
Long Island lawmakers introduce late-session bills with slim odds of passage
PN Team • 1 month ago
Several Long Island-area members of Congress introduced bills in the final days before the House adjourned for the year, measures that experts say have little realistic chance of becoming law this session. Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) filed a bill with two New Jersey Republicans creating a federal tax deduction of more than $4,000 annually for commuting costs, including gas, transit fares, and tolls like New York City's congestion pricing—introduced five days after the House had already left Washington. Other late entries include a Gottheimer-LaLota bill restricting Chinese AI on U.S. government systems, a Suozzi-Tenney bill targeting healthcare fraud and waste, and a Garbarino-Gillibrand measure to reimburse pension systems for 9/11-related death and disability benefits.
Congressional scholars, including Binghamton University's Donald Nieman and Georgetown's Joshua Huder, describe such bills as "messaging" or "position-taking" efforts aimed at campaign talking points rather than governance, since lame-duck sessions rarely advance new legislation. Some sponsors dispute that characterization, citing bipartisan backing and hopes for eventual passage.
Sources:
Sentiment
- United States House of Representatives The House is portrayed as adjourning while lawmakers file largely symbolic bills unlikely to pass.
- Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. is mentioned in the context of the House having already left before the bill was filed, implying legislative dysfunction.
- Claudia Tenney Tenney is mentioned as a bipartisan co-sponsor of a healthcare fraud bill, a neutral factual mention.
- Josh Gottheimer Gottheimer is named as co-sponsor of a bill restricting Chinese AI on government systems, a neutral factual mention.
- Long Island Long Island is the geographic focus of the story about local lawmakers' legislative activity.
- New Jersey New Jersey is mentioned as the home state of two Republican co-sponsors, a neutral factual detail.
- New York City New York City's congestion pricing tolls are referenced as part of the commuting cost deduction bill, a neutral factual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican lawmakers are mentioned as bipartisan co-sponsors of the bills without particular praise or criticism.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Philadelphia officials defend election security ahead of 2026 cycle amid Trump pressure
PN Team • 1 week ago
Philadelphia's three city commissioners — two Democrats and one Republican — say the city is prepared to run secure, accurate elections despite years of unfounded fraud claims from President Trump, who has repeatedly singled out the city as corrupt and pushed for federal intervention in elections. Officials note Pennsylvania law requires mail ballots to be processed only starting election morning, which slows results but doesn't indicate fraud; past prosecuted cases involved only a handful of ballots. Commissioners Lisa Deeley and Seth Bluestein say they've faced death threats since 2020 but remain focused on building public trust, training poll workers, and preparing contingency plans should federal agents attempt to appear at polling places, which state law restricts.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is depicted as making unfounded fraud claims and pressuring election officials, which is reputationally damaging.
- Philadelphia Philadelphia officials are shown proactively defending the city's election integrity against unfounded attacks.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic commissioners are portrayed as responsibly defending election integrity.
- Pennsylvania Pennsylvania's election law is cited factually as context for ballot processing delays.
- Republican Party (United States) A Republican commissioner joins Democrats in defending election security, a balanced portrayal.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Ohio noncitizens charged with voter fraud in three separate cases
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
The U.S. Department of Justice has charged three noncitizens in Ohio's Northern and Southern districts with voting unlawfully in federal elections. Among them is Eliza Moss, 63, an Ashtabula resident and lawful permanent resident of the Philippines, who faces a criminal complaint alleging she voted in multiple primary and general elections after registering in 2004 and again in February 2023, each time falsely attesting to U.S. citizenship. Moss told investigators the person who assisted her with registration said she was eligible to vote despite not being a citizen. She was released on a $20,000 bond and ordered to surrender her passport and remove firearms from her home.
The other defendants include a United Kingdom citizen accused of voting at least 10 times in Gallia County and a Pakistani national who registered as a citizen in Cuyahoga County in 2015 and 2016. Unlawful voting by an alien in a federal election carries a maximum penalty of 12 months in prison.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ohio Ohio is the setting for multiple voter fraud cases, giving it a mildly negative association with election integrity issues.
Related Events
Related Events
In the News
Hartford Deputy Police Chief Jason Lee remembered at Tolland funeral
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Funeral services were held in Tolland, Connecticut, for Hartford Deputy Police Chief Jason Lee, who died in September at age 48 after a long battle with cancer. He is survived by his wife and three children. A celebration of life followed the funeral in Vernon.
Lee earned his bachelor's degree from Albertus Magnus College and joined the Hartford Police Department in 2005, rising through the ranks as officer, detective, sergeant, lieutenant, captain and ultimately deputy chief over more than two decades of service. Hartford Mayor Arunan Arulampalam called Lee "a steadfast public servant" whose loss leaves the city "devastated and heartbroken," praising his dedication to making Hartford's neighborhoods safer. Police Chief James Rovella, who knew Lee for 21 years, said his greatest honor was being a loving husband and devoted father, and that the department grieves alongside his family.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Hartford, Connecticut Hartford is portrayed positively through its police department's tribute to a dedicated public servant and mayoral praise for improving the city's safety.
Related Events
Related Events
In the News
Hartford police union disputes affidavit in fired officer’s manslaughter case
PN Team • 1 week ago
The Hartford Police Union is challenging the arrest warrant affidavit behind manslaughter charges against former officer Joseph Magnano, fired after fatally shooting 55-year-old Steven Jones on Feb. 27 during a mental health crisis on Blue Hills Avenue. Jones died March 3. Magnano's attorney has filed a motion seeking a hearing on the affidavit, submitted by Chief Inspector Racheal Cain under Inspector General Eliot Prescott. Union president James Rutkauski alleges Cain's sworn statement contradicted itself on Magnano's de-escalation efforts and omitted key details, including a Garrity-protected report paragraph. Hartford Mayor Arunan Arulampalam said the matter should proceed through the courts. The Inspector General's office says it will respond in court.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Hartford, Connecticut Hartford is the location of the shooting and union dispute but is mentioned factually without reputational harm or benefit.
Related Events
Related Events
Education
Free speech rankings show most US campuses still failing students
PN Team • 1 month ago
A new national free speech ranking from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression found the average campus climate score is 61.36 out of 100 — a seven-year high, but still a D-. Of 261 schools ranked, 121 received an F and only 24 earned a C or better. The University of Chicago topped the list for the third time in seven years, followed by Claremont McKenna, Georgia Tech, Michigan Tech and Vanderbilt; New York University ranked last. In Minnesota, the University of Minnesota and Macalester College both flunked, with Macalester criticized for restrictive speech policies and intolerance of opposing views, while Carleton College earned a D- but was praised for improved political tolerance.
The University of Arkansas scored 56.6 amid controversies including the rescinded hiring of a law school dean over her support for transgender athletes and discipline against a professor over pro-Palestinian posters. Nationally, students report high self-censorship, most often on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, followed by Trump, Charlie Kirk's assassination, abortion, immigration and transgender rights. Some schools lost points for firing professors over posts about Kirk's death; Utah Valley University fell sharply after dropping a commencement speaker. The findings arrive as the Trump administration pressures universities over protests, funding and diversity programs.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is mentioned as pressuring universities and as a topic of student self-censorship, framed somewhat critically.
- Minnesota Minnesota schools mostly performed poorly in the rankings, reflecting negatively on the state's universities.
- Arkansas Arkansas is mentioned as the location of a low-scoring, controversy-affected university.
Related Events
Related Events
Related Events
Connecticut Governor Race 2026: Who Will Win
Leading:
96.5%
Ned Lamont
Vol $162.9k
Connecticut Governor Race: Margin of Victory
Leading:
82%
Lamont, 8+ pts
Vol $616.42
Connecticut Governor Election: Voter Turnout Threshold
Leading:
92.5%
Above 1.1M
Vol $355.72
Massachusetts Governor Race: Who Will Win in 2026
Leading:
97.5%
Maura Healey
Vol $591.1k
NJ-09 House winner?
Leading:
97.5%
Nellie Pou
Vol $3.3k
Tennessee’s 3rd Congressional District House Race
Leading:
97.5%
Chuck Fleischmann
Vol $15.7k
Missouri’s 1st Congressional District House Race Winner
Leading:
98%
Wesley Bell
Vol $29.7k
How Many House Seats Will Democrats Win in California in 2026
Leading:
78.5%
48
Vol $8.8k