Oklahoma Senate Race 2026: Who Will Win the Seat

Oklahoma voters head to the polls in runoff elections deciding the Republican nomination for governor and the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, alongside two statewide ballot measures. State Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former state Sen. Mike Mazzei, who narrowly split the June 16 primary vote, face off for the GOP gubernatorial nod; the winner will meet Democratic state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson in November, with Democrats not having won the governorship in 20 years. Mazzei has self-funded heavily and drew President Trump's endorsement, while Drummond has outraised him in contributions—another test of Trump's mixed 2026 primary endorsement record.

On the Democratic side, nurse N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas and attorney Jim Priest are competing for the Senate nomination after neither cleared 50% in June; Priest holds a large fundraising edge. The winner faces Republican Rep. Kevin Hern, who won his primary outright. Voters also decide State Question 846, adding a voter ID requirement to the constitution, and State Question 844, concerning property tax reimbursements tied to manufacturing incentives.

Iowa, which has voted reliably Republican for over a decade and backed Donald Trump three times, is shaping up as an unexpectedly competitive battleground in the 2026 midterms. Democrats see real chances to flip the governorship, a Senate seat, and several House races, aided by a large bloc of independent voters and a state economy strained by tariffs on agricultural goods, rising diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict, and rural hospital closures linked to Medicaid cuts. Polling shows a majority of Iowans disapprove of Trump and believe his policies have raised living costs.

Republican Sen. Joni Ernst's retirement opens a competitive Senate race between Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, a former Paralympic gold medalist. In a recent debate, Hinson repeatedly attacked Turek's attendance record in the Iowa legislature, including missed votes on the state farm bill and rural health funding, and demanded he refund per diem payments; Turek countered by criticizing her lack of in-person town halls. In the governor's race, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand is pitching an economic-populist message against Republican Zach Lahn, who has faced questions over his Iowa residency. Analysts note Iowa's history of razor-thin House margins, making it a key test of whether Democrats can reclaim congressional control.

Republican Ashley Hinson is locked in a competitive Iowa U.S. Senate race against Democrat Josh Turek, and GOP strategists acknowledge she faces a delicate balancing act with Donald Trump. Hinson has sought to create modest distance from the president on select issues without openly breaking with him or risking backlash from his base, which remains influential in Iowa's Republican electorate.

The dynamic reflects broader concerns within the GOP about how closely Senate candidates in competitive states should align themselves with Trump heading into the midterms. Turek, the Democratic challenger, is positioning himself to capitalize on any erosion of Republican support tied to dissatisfaction with Trump-era policies or rhetoric. The race is being watched as a bellwether for how Republican incumbents and candidates elsewhere manage similar tensions between base loyalty and swing-voter appeal, with implications for control of the Senate.

Alaska's record-breaking Senate race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan has taken a new turn as the Justice Department filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of results if anyone other than Sullivan wins. The DOJ argues a same-named candidate, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., could confuse the outcome, though the ballot lists the senator's party and incumbent status. Peltola called the suit a "desperate attempt" to cling to power; election integrity advocates and Democratic leaders, including Sen. Chuck Schumer, condemned it as an unprecedented intervention. The lawsuit adds legal uncertainty to a contest already defined by record spending and viewed as pivotal to Senate control.

Peltola has outraised Sullivan roughly $32 million to $13 million since January, with outside groups adding over $80 million more, as early voting continues ahead of the ranked-choice general election.

With the midterm election days away, Florida's U.S. Senate race pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed to the seat by Gov. Ron DeSantis, against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in the August primary. Moody is campaigning on her record as a former attorney general and prosecutor, emphasizing law enforcement, individual freedoms, and Florida's conservative policies while casting Nixon as a socialist. Nixon is focused on affordability, government corruption, and working families, accusing Moody of using office for personal enrichment. Both candidates reject the other's characterizations as the race heads into its final week before November's vote.

Democrat Angie Nixon, who upset Alex Vindman in Florida's Senate primary by nearly 12 points, is now challenging Republican Senator Ashley Moody in a race most analysts consider a longshot for Democrats. Florida has 1.5 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, and polls show Moody leading, though margins vary. Nixon faces a severe funding gap, having raised under $1 million to Moody's more than $11 million as of late July, limiting her ability to counter attack ads tying her to the Democratic Socialists of America.

National Democrats have been slow to invest in the race, but Senators Chris Murphy and Bernie Sanders are campaigning with Nixon this week, with Sanders contributing $250,000. Nixon is running on universal health care, child care, and affordable housing, and is working to mobilize Black voters and women while courting GOP-leaning communities. She has embraced an unapologetically progressive, grassroots-driven campaign, drawing comparisons to gubernatorial nominee David Jolly's more moderate crossover strategy, with both races seen as tests of competing Democratic approaches ahead of 2028. Analysts say Trump's unpopularity and cost-of-living concerns give her an opening, but she would need exceptionally high Democratic turnout combined with Republican voters staying home to overcome the state's structural disadvantages.

Texas Attorney General and GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton has been caught on leaked audio complaining that Washington operatives and party leaders, rather than himself, are controlling his campaign's messaging. "I've never been in a race where I felt less control," Paxton said at a fundraiser, adding frustration that decisions were coming "from DC." His campaign says he was referring to super PACs, which cannot legally coordinate with campaigns but have spent heavily on his behalf. A separate leaked recording had Paxton acknowledging his numbers dropped after a Trump-headlined GOP convention in Dallas.

The disclosures add to visible strain within Texas Republican ranks ahead of the November 3 election against Democrat James Talarico, with Senator John Cornyn among those reluctant to fully rally behind Paxton. Angela Paxton, the AG's estranged wife who filed for divorce in July 2025 citing adultery, has released a PAC-funded ad urging Republicans to back the full GOP ticket regardless of individual candidates. Polling shows Talarico with a narrow lead, and Republicans have poured tens of millions of dollars into defending the seat.

Ohio Sen. Jon Husted addressed the Republican National Convention in Dallas, one of several speakers on the event's first night alongside House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso. The two-day convention, headlined by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, comes less than two months before the November midterms.

Husted centered his remarks on affordability, citing conversations with Ohioans he says have benefited from tax cuts signed into law last year, including provisions eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security income. He pointed to workers in Cleveland, Findlay, and Dayton as examples of people using the savings to pay down debt, save for a home, or stay in their houses as they age.

Husted is running to keep his Senate seat against Democrat Sherrod Brown, the former senator who lost to Bernie Moreno in 2024 and is seeking a return to Washington. Brown has recently campaigned in the Cleveland and Canton areas. Election Day is November 3.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) is drawing renewed scrutiny after a Wall Street Journal report cited staff messages suggesting he has been reluctant to perform basic constituent services, including dismissing meeting requests from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and claiming illness to skip a meeting with paralyzed veterans before appearing on Fox News instead. The revelations add to existing tensions between Fetterman and the Democratic base over his hawkish support for Israel and frequent media criticism of his own party.

On Pod Save America, former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau criticized Fetterman's apparent neglect of constituent work but cautioned Democrats against pushing him too far, noting his voting record remains largely in line with the party, including opposition to nearly all Trump judicial nominees. Favreau warned that alienating Fetterman into a possible party switch could cost Democrats a future Senate majority and control over a pivotal Supreme Court confirmation. Fetterman is not up for reelection until 2028.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear reiterated Sunday on CBS News's "Face the Nation" that he has "heard absolutely nothing back" from Sen. Mitch McConnell, more than two months into the senator's absence. Beshear said he wishes McConnell good health but called the Republican-controlled Senate unaccountable, saying McConnell "absolutely refuses" to address the public directly even briefly, and faulted Senate Majority Leader John Thune for deferring to McConnell's office rather than ensuring senators have the capacity to serve.

McConnell, 84, has not cast a Senate vote since June 11 following a fall and hospitalization at his Capitol Hill home in mid-June. He later disclosed a brief loss of consciousness and pneumonia, moved to a rehab facility, and was discharged to recover at home on Aug. 6, with no timeline for returning to work. His office says he has no fractures, concussion, heart attack, or stroke and continues physical therapy while engaging on Senate business. Some Senate Republicans, including Sen. Roger Marshall, have expressed confidence McConnell will return before his term ends; he is not seeking reelection. The Senate returns from recess Sept. 14.