Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District House Race 2026
Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, covering the Tulsa metro area, will hold its 2026 House election to fill the seat in a district that has leaned solidly Republican in recent cycles. Voters will choose a representative to serve a two-year term in the U.S. House starting in January 2027. Primary contests will determine each party’s nominee before the general election.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on districts like this one, where party strength and candidate quality shape whether a seat stays safe or becomes competitive. Tulsa’s suburban growth and shifting voter demographics make the district worth watching even in a historically red state. The outcome will factor into broader narratives about regional political trends heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question is simple: which party and which candidate ultimately wins the seat. Markets isolate this single binary outcome, stripping away the noise of campaign coverage to focus purely on who prevails. Separate contracts for individual candidates and party control let traders express views on primary outcomes as well as the general election result, capturing both intra-party and partisan dynamics in one tradeable framework.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
Electoral district -
Oklahoma -
2022 United States House of Representatives elections -
Tulsa, Oklahoma -
Mark Tedford
Total Volume
$30.9k
Kalshi $7.8k · Polymarket $23.1k
Leading Market
Mark Tedford
Kalshi 95% · Polymarket 96%
Mark Tedford Volume
$7.6k
Kalshi $2.6k · Polymarket $5k
Mark Tedford 24h Change
-2.00%
Kalshi 0.00% · Polymarket -2.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark TedfordRepublican Party | 95.2¢ | 7.0% | , trade Mark Tedford on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 96.0¢ | 5% | , trade Mark Tedford on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| John MoisantDemocratic Party | 6.1¢ | 7.0% | , trade John Moisant on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 5.0¢ | 5% | , trade John Moisant on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark TedfordRepublican Party | $7,611.79 | ||
| John MoisantDemocratic Party | $23,279.74 |