Oklahoma’s 4th Congressional District House Race 2026
Oklahoma’s 4th Congressional District will choose its next U.S. House representative in the 2026 midterm elections. The district, covering southwestern Oklahoma, has long been a Republican stronghold. The race will determine who represents the area in Washington for the next term.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on the cumulative outcome of races like this one across the country. Even in reliably partisan districts, primary upsets, retirements, or shifting turnout can reshape expectations. The result will factor into the broader national balance of power heading into the next Congress.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a multi-candidate general election into a single tradeable question: which party, or in some cases which named candidate, ultimately wins the seat. Separate contracts tied to individual contenders let traders isolate primary dynamics before the field narrows. As filings and campaign developments unfold, the market consolidates scattered political signals into one running measure of expected outcome.
Related terms
-
Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
United States Congress -
Primary election -
Oklahoma -
Tom Cole
Total Volume
$18.6k
Kalshi $4.6k · Polymarket $14k
Leading Market
Tom Cole
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 97%
Tom Cole Volume
$10.2k
Kalshi $2.3k · Polymarket $7.8k
Tom Cole 24h Change
-3.00%
Kalshi -1.20% · Polymarket -3.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom ColeRepublican Party | 96.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Tom Cole on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade Tom Cole on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Jacobi MitchellDemocratic Party | 4.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Jacobi Mitchell on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 4.0¢ | 5% | , trade Jacobi Mitchell on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom ColeRepublican Party | $10,158.41 | ||
| Jacobi MitchellDemocratic Party | $8,396.95 |