Who Will Win New York’s 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Several Long Island-area members of Congress introduced bills in the final days before the House adjourned for the year, measures that experts say have little realistic chance of becoming law this session. Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) filed a bill with two New Jersey Republicans creating a federal tax deduction of more than $4,000 annually for commuting costs, including gas, transit fares, and tolls like New York City's congestion pricing—introduced five days after the House had already left Washington. Other late entries include a Gottheimer-LaLota bill restricting Chinese AI on U.S. government systems, a Suozzi-Tenney bill targeting healthcare fraud and waste, and a Garbarino-Gillibrand measure to reimburse pension systems for 9/11-related death and disability benefits.

Congressional scholars, including Binghamton University's Donald Nieman and Georgetown's Joshua Huder, describe such bills as "messaging" or "position-taking" efforts aimed at campaign talking points rather than governance, since lame-duck sessions rarely advance new legislation. Some sponsors dispute that characterization, citing bipartisan backing and hopes for eventual passage.

Three of Long Island's four U.S. House races will go without candidate debates before the Nov. 3 election, continuing a trend analysts call a decline in a longstanding American political tradition. Only one debate has been scheduled on the Island: a taped cable TV matchup between Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) and challenger Michael LiPetri on Oct. 20.

Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Bayport) and Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) have both declined debate invitations, citing direct voter engagement over "staged" events. Garbarino's challenger Patrick Halpin says he's ready to debate "anytime, anyplace," while Gillen's opponent Jeanine Driscoll accused her of avoiding scrutiny. In a reversal of the usual pattern, Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville) wants to debate, but Democratic challenger Chris Gallant has refused. Experts, including former Rep. Steve Israel, warn the decline — tied to safer social media messaging and less competitive districts — deprives voters of chances to see how candidates handle pressure, even as debates continue in some other competitive New York races like NY-17.

Many Republicans facing tough November races are avoiding next week's GOP midterm convention in Dallas, the first held by a major party in over four decades. A POLITICO survey found roughly 45 of more than 70 GOP candidates and members contacted are skipping or undecided, citing scheduling conflicts, high attendance fees, and reluctance to appear alongside President Donald Trump, who is set to headline with Vice President JD Vance. Top leaders including Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune plan to attend, along with 2028 hopefuls like Sen. Ted Cruz.

Separately, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is weighing disciplinary action against Reps. Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez after the two Democrats helped Republicans pass a procedural rule, prompting a referral to the caucus's rules panel. Other pending items include a bipartisan bill policing lawmaker misconduct, a possible September floor vote on Russia sanctions legislation, and an unresolved GOP split over regulating data centers ahead of the midterms.

Control of the U.S. House this fall hinges on a map of roughly three dozen to 50 competitive races, with Democrats needing a net gain of just three seats to win the majority. Historically, the president's party has gained House seats in a midterm only twice since 1946, and Democrats are favored by generic-ballot polling and President Trump's low approval ratings, though analysts note Republican gerrymandering has made more Democratic-held seats competitive, offsetting some of that advantage. GOP leaders point to legislative wins and plan to tie Democrats to the party's left flank.

Key races include New York's 17th District (Mike Lawler vs. Cait Conley), Long Island's 3rd and 4th Districts, New Jersey's 7th, Ohio's 9th and 7th, California's 22nd and 48th, Arizona's 1st, and Virginia's 2nd. A House flip would make Hakeem Jeffries speaker and could block Trump's agenda while enabling investigative oversight.

A new Newsday/Siena University poll finds Long Islanders narrowly opposed to New York's Local Cops, Local Crimes Act, which bars local law enforcement from entering cooperation agreements with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The poll found 51% opposed and 45% in support, with responses split sharply along party lines: 75% of Democrats back the law while 74% of Republicans oppose it. Independents lean against it, 57% to 38%.

Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the law earlier this year, prompting Nassau County to end its ICE agreements in August and 15 upstate sheriffs to sue over the measure. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican challenging Hochul in November, has criticized the law and says the county still plans to join the sheriffs' lawsuit. Siena pollster Don Levy said the Long Island numbers, weaker in support than statewide polling, could give Blakeman an opening on the issue. The law restricts civil immigration enforcement cooperation but does not bar police from working with ICE on criminal matters.

Several New York Democrats running in competitive House races are putting distance between themselves and Gov. Kathy Hochul weeks before Election Day. Rep. Tom Suozzi skipped a Hochul campaign stop on Long Island, citing a scheduling conflict, while Rep. Laura Gillen attended. In New York's 17th District, challenger Cait Conley was caught on video agreeing with GOP Rep. Mike Lawler that "Hochul has got to go," later calling Hochul to smooth things over. Blake Gendebien, running in the 21st District, declined to say if he'd support Hochul. Recent Siena polling shows Hochul's favorability underwater and her lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman narrowing in suburban and upstate areas, reviving concerns about coattail effects seen in 2022.

Officials in Nassau and Suffolk counties held a joint briefing at the Suffolk County Office of Emergency Management to warn residents ahead of a weekend nor'easter expected to bring flooding, heavy rain, and damaging winds to Long Island. Coastal communities such as Patchogue were already seeing minor street flooding, a familiar occurrence for residents who were securing outdoor furniture and stocking supplies in anticipation of worsening conditions.

Forecasters expect peak wind gusts of up to 55 mph from Friday evening through Saturday, strong enough to down trees and power lines and cause widespread outages. PSEG Long Island said crews are staged to respond quickly once the storm hits. Due to rough sea conditions, the Long Island Ferry has canceled Cross Sound service through Saturday. County executives urged residents to monitor forecasts closely and finish storm preparations as the system approaches the region.

New data released by the New York Public Interest Research Group (NYPIRG) shows more than 200 public school buildings on Long Island had at least one water fixture exceeding New York's lead standard of 5 parts per billion. The interactive report breaks down results by county, district and school, covering testing conducted and reported to the state from 2023 to 2026. In Nassau County, 501 outlets (about 4.5% tested) exceeded the limit, with Northside Elementary in Farmingdale and schools in Valley Stream District 24 among the worst affected. Suffolk County had 519 outlets (about 4.6%) above the threshold, led by schools in Kings Park, Hauppauge, Three Village and Middle Country districts.

The findings follow a broader statewide study and an earlier Newsday review that found nearly 3,000 noncompliant fixtures across 123 Long Island districts. Affected districts say they have since installed filtered water stations or taken fixtures out of service, and that current drinking water tests clean. State law requires schools to test for lead every three years and remove noncompliant fixtures.

President Donald Trump made his first visit to Syracuse as a sitting president, headlining a rally for Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman ahead of New York's November elections. About 2,500 supporters packed the Oncenter while a roughly equal number of protesters gathered at Clinton Square before marching toward the venue; no arrests or violence were reported. Trump repeated familiar campaign themes, criticizing immigration policy, downplaying climate change, and claiming credit for the Micron Technology project despite the deal predating his second term. He urged supporters to vote as though he were on the ballot.

Notably, many local Republicans skipped the event, including Onondaga County Executive Ryan McMahon and District Attorney Bill Fitzpatrick, reflecting lingering friction after the GOP's historic losses in Central New York last year. Trump's approval rating in New York sits at 34%, and Blakeman trails Gov. Kathy Hochul in every poll. The visit underscored the high stakes of the governor's race and down-ballot congressional contests, as both parties battle for control of Upstate districts and Congress.