Who Will Win New York’s 25th Congressional District in 2026?
New York’s 25th Congressional District, covering parts of Monroe County including Rochester, goes to voters on November 3, 2026, to elect its U.S. House representative. The seat has swung between parties in recent cycles and remains one of the state’s more competitive districts. Both major parties are expected to field strong candidates as the race takes shape heading into next year.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to a handful of swing districts like NY-25, where local turnout and candidate quality can outweigh national trends. A win here signals how suburban and upstate New York voters are leaning heading into the broader midterm cycle. The outcome could shape the district’s representation on issues from infrastructure to federal funding for the Rochester area.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The contract reduces a sprawling congressional campaign to a binary: which party’s nominee carries the district. That framing strips away local policy debates and instead isolates partisan control as the sole tradeable outcome. Traders are effectively weighing district-level partisan lean against candidate strength and the national political environment a year out from Election Day.
Related terms
Total Volume
$49.1k
Kalshi $1.8k · Polymarket $47.2k
Leading Market
Joseph Morelle
Kalshi 98%
Joseph Morelle Volume
$1.5k
Kalshi $1.5k
Joseph Morelle 24h Change
+0.10%
Kalshi +0.10%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph MorelleDemocratic Party | 99.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Joseph Morelle on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Morella JosephDemocratic Party | — | — | — | 99.0¢ | 5% | , trade Morella Joseph on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Virginia McIntyreRepublican Party | 3.1¢ | 7.0% | , trade Virginia McIntyre on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 2.0¢ | 5% | , trade Virginia McIntyre on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph MorelleDemocratic Party | $1,463.75 | No market | |
| Morella JosephDemocratic Party | $12,617.06 | No market | |
| Virginia McIntyreRepublican Party | $34,994.78 |