New York’s 1st Congressional District House Race

Several Long Island-area members of Congress introduced bills in the final days before the House adjourned for the year, measures that experts say have little realistic chance of becoming law this session. Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) filed a bill with two New Jersey Republicans creating a federal tax deduction of more than $4,000 annually for commuting costs, including gas, transit fares, and tolls like New York City's congestion pricing—introduced five days after the House had already left Washington. Other late entries include a Gottheimer-LaLota bill restricting Chinese AI on U.S. government systems, a Suozzi-Tenney bill targeting healthcare fraud and waste, and a Garbarino-Gillibrand measure to reimburse pension systems for 9/11-related death and disability benefits.

Congressional scholars, including Binghamton University's Donald Nieman and Georgetown's Joshua Huder, describe such bills as "messaging" or "position-taking" efforts aimed at campaign talking points rather than governance, since lame-duck sessions rarely advance new legislation. Some sponsors dispute that characterization, citing bipartisan backing and hopes for eventual passage.

Control of the U.S. House this fall hinges on a map of roughly three dozen to 50 competitive races, with Democrats needing a net gain of just three seats to win the majority. Historically, the president's party has gained House seats in a midterm only twice since 1946, and Democrats are favored by generic-ballot polling and President Trump's low approval ratings, though analysts note Republican gerrymandering has made more Democratic-held seats competitive, offsetting some of that advantage. GOP leaders point to legislative wins and plan to tie Democrats to the party's left flank.

Key races include New York's 17th District (Mike Lawler vs. Cait Conley), Long Island's 3rd and 4th Districts, New Jersey's 7th, Ohio's 9th and 7th, California's 22nd and 48th, Arizona's 1st, and Virginia's 2nd. A House flip would make Hakeem Jeffries speaker and could block Trump's agenda while enabling investigative oversight.

A new Newsday/Siena University poll finds Long Islanders narrowly opposed to New York's Local Cops, Local Crimes Act, which bars local law enforcement from entering cooperation agreements with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The poll found 51% opposed and 45% in support, with responses split sharply along party lines: 75% of Democrats back the law while 74% of Republicans oppose it. Independents lean against it, 57% to 38%.

Gov. Kathy Hochul signed the law earlier this year, prompting Nassau County to end its ICE agreements in August and 15 upstate sheriffs to sue over the measure. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, a Republican challenging Hochul in November, has criticized the law and says the county still plans to join the sheriffs' lawsuit. Siena pollster Don Levy said the Long Island numbers, weaker in support than statewide polling, could give Blakeman an opening on the issue. The law restricts civil immigration enforcement cooperation but does not bar police from working with ICE on criminal matters.

Officials in Nassau and Suffolk counties held a joint briefing at the Suffolk County Office of Emergency Management to warn residents ahead of a weekend nor'easter expected to bring flooding, heavy rain, and damaging winds to Long Island. Coastal communities such as Patchogue were already seeing minor street flooding, a familiar occurrence for residents who were securing outdoor furniture and stocking supplies in anticipation of worsening conditions.

Forecasters expect peak wind gusts of up to 55 mph from Friday evening through Saturday, strong enough to down trees and power lines and cause widespread outages. PSEG Long Island said crews are staged to respond quickly once the storm hits. Due to rough sea conditions, the Long Island Ferry has canceled Cross Sound service through Saturday. County executives urged residents to monitor forecasts closely and finish storm preparations as the system approaches the region.

New data released by the New York Public Interest Research Group (NYPIRG) shows more than 200 public school buildings on Long Island had at least one water fixture exceeding New York's lead standard of 5 parts per billion. The interactive report breaks down results by county, district and school, covering testing conducted and reported to the state from 2023 to 2026. In Nassau County, 501 outlets (about 4.5% tested) exceeded the limit, with Northside Elementary in Farmingdale and schools in Valley Stream District 24 among the worst affected. Suffolk County had 519 outlets (about 4.6%) above the threshold, led by schools in Kings Park, Hauppauge, Three Village and Middle Country districts.

The findings follow a broader statewide study and an earlier Newsday review that found nearly 3,000 noncompliant fixtures across 123 Long Island districts. Affected districts say they have since installed filtered water stations or taken fixtures out of service, and that current drinking water tests clean. State law requires schools to test for lead every three years and remove noncompliant fixtures.

New Hampshire held primary elections Tuesday to pick nominees for Congress, governor and the state Legislature, with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's retirement reshaping the ballot. Rep. Chris Pappas led a five-way Democratic Senate field that included progressive challenger Karishma Manzur, a research scientist and democratic socialist whose late surge, fueled by criticism of Pappas' pro-Israel donor support and his "present" vote on restricting arms sales to Israel, narrowed his once-commanding lead despite his large fundraising advantage and Shaheen's endorsement. On the Republican side, John Sununu, endorsed by President Trump over rival Scott Brown, held a wide edge among eight candidates; both Sununu and Brown are former senators previously defeated by Shaheen. The seat is one of a handful nationally that could help decide Senate control, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats.

Pappas' departure from the 1st District opened a crowded race, with Stefany Shaheen (Jeanne Shaheen's daughter) and Maura Sullivan leading a nine-person Democratic field; Republicans chose among five candidates including Trump-endorsed businessman Anthony DiLorenzo and repeat candidate Hollie Noveletsky. In the 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander faced a primary challenge from state legislator Paige Beauchemin, while Republicans chose from candidates including repeat nominee Lily Tang Williams. Gov. Kelly Ayotte easily advanced toward a second term against two Republican rivals, favored against unopposed Democrat Cinde Warmington. Winners have eight weeks to campaign before the November 3 general election, as New Hampshire shifts future primaries to June starting in 2026.

Early voting has opened in Virginia ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, running through Oct. 31 with a voter registration deadline of Oct. 23. Voters statewide will decide three constitutional amendments covering reproductive rights, marriage equality (protecting gay and interracial marriage), and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons who complete their sentences.

Richmond-area voters will also weigh in on federal races: Sen. Mark Warner seeks a fourth term against Bert Mizusawa, while U.S. House contests include the 1st District (Rob Wittman vs. Shannon Taylor), 4th District (Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray Jr. and Joan Bell), and 5th District (John McGuire vs. Tom Perriello and Cooke Harvey). Richmond and Chesterfield, along with 45 other Virginia localities, will vote on authorizing a local 1% sales tax for school construction, projected to raise roughly $47 million and $70 million annually, respectively. Richmond also holds a special School Board election between incumbent Anne Holton and Jackie McDonnough.

Virginia's 1st and 5th congressional districts have drawn roughly $1.1 million in combined trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, the most activity among the state's House races, as both could factor into control of Congress. In the 5th District, Republican Rep. John McGuire is favored over Democrat Tom Perriello. In the 1st District, Democrat Shannon Taylor is favored to flip the seat held by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman. A third race, the 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democrat Elaine Luria, has also seen heavy betting, with markets strongly favoring Luria.

More broadly, prediction markets favor Democrats to retake the House and give them an edge in the Senate, with over $165 million traded on House control and $99 million on the Senate across both platforms.

Third-party and unaffiliated candidates appear in all four of Utah's congressional districts this fall, though none qualified for official debates and none poll in double digits. Figures like unaffiliated candidates Robert Moesinger and Steven Burt, Libertarian Taylor Wright, Independent American Carlton Bowen and Constitution Party nominee Cassie Easley say they aren't running to win but to challenge the two-party system, push reforms like ranked-choice voting and multi-member districts, and engage disaffected young voters.

Historically, Utah's third-party candidates have drawn minimal support, averaging roughly 2% since 1914, with Evan McMullin a notable exception. Rising unaffiliated voter registration suggests some appetite for alternatives, but it remains unclear whether that will translate into votes for non-major-party candidates this cycle.