Nevada Secretary of State: 2026 Election Winner
Nevada voters will choose a new Secretary of State in November 2026, as incumbent Cisco Aguilar faces term limits or a shifting political landscape in the state’s top elections office. The Secretary of State oversees elections administration, business registrations, and securities regulation in Nevada. Candidates from both major parties are expected to compete for the seat in this closely watched swing-state race.
Why Markets Are Watching
Nevada’s Secretary of State controls election administration in a perennial presidential battleground, making the office a flashpoint in ongoing debates over voting procedures and election integrity. The winner will oversee rules for the 2028 presidential election cycle. Control of this office carries outsized national significance given Nevada’s role in deciding close federal elections.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
This market reduces a multi-candidate statewide race to a binary partisan question: will a Democrat or Republican claim the office. Traders are effectively weighing partisan turnout trends, candidate strength, and Nevada’s recent voting patterns in statewide contests. The contract isolates party control as the decisive variable, stripping away the mechanics of the race to focus purely on which side ultimately prevails.
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Total Volume
$7.3k
Kalshi $4.6k · Polymarket $2.7k
Leading Market
Cisco Aguilar
Kalshi 90% · Polymarket 91%
Cisco Aguilar Volume
$5.1k
Kalshi $3.7k · Polymarket $1.4k
Cisco Aguilar 24h Change
+21.00%
Kalshi +2.80% · Polymarket +21.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco AguilarDemocratic Party | 93.8¢ | 7.0% | , trade Cisco Aguilar on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 92.0¢ | 5% | , trade Cisco Aguilar on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Jim MarchantRepublican Party | 9.4¢ | 7.0% | , trade Jim Marchant on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 13.0¢ | 5% | , trade Jim Marchant on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco AguilarDemocratic Party | $5,082.80 | ||
| Jim MarchantRepublican Party | $2,171.28 |