Nevada’s 4th District House Race 2026
Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, anchored by parts of Las Vegas and rural counties to the north, will hold elections in 2026 to determine its next U.S. House representative. The district has flipped between parties in past cycles and is widely viewed as competitive terrain. Both major parties are expected to contest the seat heavily as part of the broader battle for House control.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House often comes down to a small number of swing districts, and NV-04 is one of them. The outcome here could influence the legislative agenda on issues ranging from taxes to immigration for the next two years. Nevada’s mix of urban and rural voters also makes the race a bellwether for shifting political currents in the Southwest.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The core question traders are weighing is simple: which party ultimately holds the seat once votes are counted. Individual candidate contracts let participants isolate views on primary contenders before the field is even settled, while the party-line contracts capture the broader partisan lean of the district. Together these markets translate a single district race into layered signals about both candidate strength and national political mood.
Related terms
Total Volume
$35.9k
Kalshi $15k · Polymarket $20.9k
Leading Market
Steven Horsford
Kalshi 95% · Polymarket 97%
Steven Horsford Volume
$9.5k
Kalshi $8.3k · Polymarket $1.2k
Steven Horsford 24h Change
-3.00%
Kalshi -1.30% · Polymarket -3.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven HorsfordDemocratic Party | 97.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Steven Horsford on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade Steven Horsford on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Cody WhippleRepublican Party | 4.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Cody Whipple on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Cody K. WhippleRepublican Party | — | — | — | 5.0¢ | 5% | , trade Cody K. Whipple on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven HorsfordDemocratic Party | $9,516.97 | ||
| Cody WhippleRepublican Party | $6,711.94 | No market | |
| Cody K. WhippleRepublican Party | $19,637.90 | No market |