Iowa Senate Election: How Many Votes Will Be Cast

Michigan's open Senate race between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul el Sayed, vying to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters, has become a focal point in the fight for Senate control. Rogers is running a well-funded, high-intensity campaign—over $133 million in advertising and millions of door knocks—marking the most serious GOP statewide operation since 2014. Michigan hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1994, but polling shows a competitive race amid broader uncertainty about midterm turnout and Democratic advantages nationally.

If Republicans lose seats elsewhere, Michigan could determine whether the GOP retains a narrow Senate majority via the vice president's tiebreaking vote, making it one of the cycle's most consequential contests.

Iowa Democrats are hoping the 2026 midterms mark a turning point after nearly a decade of Republican dominance in the statehouse and congressional delegation. Political scientists note Iowa has swung both ways in recent cycles, and Cook Political Report now rates the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts as leaning Democratic, with the 2nd District a toss-up. The governor's race between Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn also leans Democratic. Analysts cite frustration with GOP control of state and federal government, a large pool of independent voters, bipartisan messaging from candidates like Sand and Senate hopeful Josh Turek, and softer approval ratings for President Trump as factors fueling Democratic optimism ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

Iowa has become an unexpectedly competitive state heading into the midterms, with contested races for Senate, Governor, and multiple House seats. In the Senate contest, Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek, who has outperformed past Democratic candidates and earned an endorsement from Barack Obama. Polling shows a tight race, but Hinson remains favored given the state's strong Republican lean. Analysts note that a Democratic win would require a favorable environment, a strong candidate, and a weak GOP nominee — conditions only partially met so far.

Democrats appear stronger in the governor's race, where Rob Sand, a proven statewide winner, faces Republican Zach Lahn, whose residency and spending choices have drawn criticism. Sand's independent-leaning campaign style has helped him poll ahead. In the House, Iowa's 1st District leans toward a Democratic pickup, the 2nd is expected to hold for Republicans following Hinson's Senate run, and the 3rd, held by Zach Nunn, remains the most competitive due to its lighter Republican tilt.

President Trump rallied in Sioux City, Iowa, backing Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson, Rep. Zach Nunn, and Rep. Randy Feenstra, telling supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" and warning that Democratic gains would threaten GOP wins on tariffs, trade and farm policy. Hinson, running against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in a tight contest that could decide Senate control, has distanced herself from Trump on issues like his Russia diesel deal, the Iran war's economic fallout, and tariffs, even as she campaigned alongside him. Polls show the race within a few points either way, with early voting already underway in Iowa.

Iowa Republicans, who have held a decade-long trifecta in the state alongside President Trump's rise, are voicing rare public anxiety ahead of the 2026 midterms. At a fundraiser honoring outgoing Sen. Joni Ernst, Sen. Chuck Grassley, 93, warned of a scenario where a Democratic governor could pick his Senate successor, underscoring how competitive Iowa has become. Conservative radio host Steve Deace reported that internal GOP polling shows the state trending roughly 10 points bluer than in 2024, endangering several U.S. House seats.

Rising gas and diesel prices tied to the Iran conflict, a trade dispute with China hurting soybean farmers, and a shrinking first-quarter economy have squeezed Iowa voters, denting Trump's approval even in this deep-red state. Democrat Rob Sand, the state auditor leading gubernatorial polling, is campaigning on anti-partisan themes against Republican Zach Lahn, while Josh Turek challenges Rep. Ashley Hinson for Senate. Cook Political Report now rates two of Iowa's four House seats as toss-ups and the governor's race as leaning Democratic, a marked shift for a state Trump carried by over 13 points in 2024.

Iowa's Nov. 3 general election features marquee contests for governor and U.S. Senate, alongside numerous state, county and judicial races and a constitutional amendment. Early voting begins Oct. 14, when county auditors start mailing requested absentee ballots. Oct. 19 is the deadline for voter pre-registration and absentee ballot requests, while Nov. 2 is the last day for in-person absentee voting. Polls on Election Day are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and absentee ballots must be received by county auditors by 8 p.m. that day to count.

To register, voters must be Iowa residents, U.S. citizens and at least 18 by Election Day; those deemed mentally incompetent by a court or convicted felons without restored rights are ineligible. Registration can be completed online, by mail, or in person on Election Day with proof of identity and residence. Accepted IDs include an Iowa driver's license, passport or non-operator ID. Voters without ID can still cast a ballot if another registered voter attests to their identity, or file a provisional ballot pending later verification.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are competing to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst in a race that tests how firmly Iowa has shifted red. Hinson, who holds an endorsement from President Donald Trump, is emphasizing her willingness to work across the aisle even as she runs on her party's national brand. Turek, meanwhile, is seeking to show that Democrats can still compete statewide despite Iowa's Republican trend over the past decade.

With Election Day about six weeks away, the contest is emerging as one of the more competitive Senate races of the 2026 cycle, reflecting broader questions about whether traditionally purple-turned-red states like Iowa remain contestable for Democrats. The outcome could factor into the overall battle for Senate control and offers a test case for how candidates balance partisan loyalty with appeals to independent and crossover voters in a state with a complex political history.

Michigan's Secretary of State's office reports absentee ballot returns running 30% ahead of the 2022 midterm cycle, with 201,909 ballots returned as of Oct. 6, compared with 155,142 at the equivalent point four years earlier. More than 2 million Michigan voters have requested absentee ballots this year, an increase officials attribute mainly to growth in the permanent absentee voter list rather than a surge in overall turnout enthusiasm. Michigan's ballot features races for governor, attorney general, secretary of state, the Legislature, and a competitive open U.S. Senate seat between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers.

Other states are moving into their voting windows. California counties including Stanislaus have begun mailing ballots ahead of an Oct. 19 registration deadline. Virginia's early in-person voting runs through Oct. 31, with mail ballots due by Election Day, Nov. 3; its ballot includes a U.S. Senate seat and all 11 House seats. Iowa's absentee window opens Oct. 14, with written ballot requests due by Oct. 19 and completed ballots due by 8 p.m. on Nov. 3; its ballot includes governor, U.S. Senate and House, and other statewide offices.

An Iowa woman, former Iowa Nurses Association executive director Myers, voted early with her son on Oct. 16, then died later that same day at age 90. Despite casting a legal ballot, her vote will be rejected under an Iowa law requiring election officials to discard ballots once they receive proof a voter died before Election Day, such as death records or an obituary. Her ballot will be set aside and sent to a special precinct board for formal rejection. Iowa is one of 12 states with such laws, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Her son is sharing her story publicly.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. called Iowa's upcoming election "the most important" in the country at a Make America Healthy Again rally days before Election Day, endorsing Republican gubernatorial candidate Zach Lahn and congressional candidate Joe Mitchell. The event, organized by MAHA PAC, centered on "food freedom" and "medical freedom," with the PAC committing over $1.9 million to Lahn and six House candidates. Lahn backed removing COVID-19 vaccines from the market and regenerative farming to lower food costs. Democratic rivals Rob Sand and Lindsay for Iowa campaigns criticized the candidates' health care stances, citing Iowa's rising cancer rates and opposition to Medicaid and mRNA vaccine access.