Total Volume
$6.2m
Kalshi $4.2m · Polymarket $2m
Leading Market
Before the Midterms
Polymarket 2%
Before the Midterms Volume
$2m
Polymarket $2m
Before the Midterms 24h Change
-1.00%
Polymarket -1.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before the Midterms | — | — | — | 3.0¢ | 5% |
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| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before the Midterms | $1,972,775.97 | —No market |
2.0%
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Vol: $2m
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| Before election day 2026 | $4,184,774.76 |
0.6%
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Vol: $4.2m
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Emerging News
Congress
Beshear Says McConnell Has Not Responded to Health Update Requests
PN Team • 2 months ago
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear reiterated Sunday on CBS News's "Face the Nation" that he has "heard absolutely nothing back" from Sen. Mitch McConnell, more than two months into the senator's absence. Beshear said he wishes McConnell good health but called the Republican-controlled Senate unaccountable, saying McConnell "absolutely refuses" to address the public directly even briefly, and faulted Senate Majority Leader John Thune for deferring to McConnell's office rather than ensuring senators have the capacity to serve.
McConnell, 84, has not cast a Senate vote since June 11 following a fall and hospitalization at his Capitol Hill home in mid-June. He later disclosed a brief loss of consciousness and pneumonia, moved to a rehab facility, and was discharged to recover at home on Aug. 6, with no timeline for returning to work. His office says he has no fractures, concussion, heart attack, or stroke and continues physical therapy while engaging on Senate business. Some Senate Republicans, including Sen. Roger Marshall, have expressed confidence McConnell will return before his term ends; he is not seeking reelection. The Senate returns from recess Sept. 14.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mitch McConnell McConnell is depicted as unresponsive to health update requests and criticized for refusing to address the public despite a prolonged absence.
- John Thune Thune is faulted for deferring to McConnell's office instead of ensuring the Senate functions properly.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican-controlled Senate is criticized by Beshear as unaccountable regarding McConnell's absence.
- United States Senate The Senate is portrayed as lacking accountability and failing to ensure senators can perform their duties.
- Andy Beshear Beshear is shown as a critical voice raising legitimate accountability concerns, a mostly neutral-to-mildly favorable portrayal.
- Kentucky Kentucky is mentioned only as Beshear's and McConnell's state, a neutral factual reference.
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Congress
Kentucky lawmaker says McConnell could return to Senate this month
PN Team • 2 months ago
Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., could return to Capitol Hill when the Senate reconvenes on Sept. 14, according to House Oversight Chair James Comer, who said he expects McConnell to be present but has spoken only with McConnell's staff, not the senator himself.
McConnell, 84, was hospitalized June 14 following a fall and a subsequent bout with pneumonia. He was later transferred to a rehabilitation facility before being discharged last month to continue recovering at home. He has not appeared publicly since, with proof-of-life limited to staff-issued photos and statements. McConnell has not cast a Senate vote since June 11, aside from a proxy vote last month. Comer said McConnell's staff, many of whom are from his district, have told him it's their goal for the senator to be present when the Senate returns from recess Sept. 14, though a spokesperson for McConnell's office has not confirmed a timeline.
Sentiment
- Mitch McConnell McConnell's prolonged health absence and lack of public appearances raise concerns about his capacity to serve, casting a somewhat negative light.
- Kentucky Kentucky is mentioned as McConnell's state and Comer's district, a neutral factual reference.
- United States House of Representatives House Oversight Chair Comer is referenced via his House position but the House itself is only tangentially mentioned.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned factually as the body McConnell may return to.
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Congress
McConnell returns to Senate floor after three-month absence following fall
PN Team • 1 month ago
Sen. Mitch McConnell continued his return to the Senate this week, casting his first vote in more than three months on Monday after a five-week recess and appearing again Tuesday, when he voted to advance cryptocurrency legislation known as the Clarity Act. The Kentucky Republican, 84, had been out of public view since being hospitalized June 14 following a fall and a slight case of pneumonia, later moving to a rehabilitation center before being discharged August 6 to continue recovery and physical therapy at home. He has been seen being pushed onto the floor in a wheelchair.
Reaction has split along party lines. Kentucky Republicans, including Senate President Robert Stivers, praised McConnell's dedication and wished him well. Democrats, including Gov. Andy Beshear and Rep. Morgan McGarvey, welcomed his return but renewed calls for greater transparency about his health and absence.
McConnell has said his recovery has been "long and often frustrating," compounded by lingering effects of childhood polio, and that he is not yet back to full strength. He has assured Majority Leader John Thune he will keep up physical therapy and attend key votes, including a stalled farm bill in committee and looming government funding deadlines before the fiscal year ends September 30.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Mitch McConnell McConnell is portrayed sympathetically as resilient and dedicated despite health struggles, returning to work amid recovery.
- Republican Party (United States) Kentucky Republicans are portrayed positively, praising McConnell's dedication and wishing him well.
- Andy Beshear Beshear is shown welcoming McConnell's return while calling for transparency, a neutral-to-mildly-positive civic gesture.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as welcoming McConnell's return while pressing for more transparency, a mildly critical but balanced stance.
- Kentucky Kentucky is mentioned as McConnell's home state and the site of political reactions, a neutral factual reference.
- Morgan McGarvey McGarvey is depicted as welcoming McConnell back but pushing for more transparency, a mild critical note.
- United States House of Representatives The House is only referenced tangentially through Rep. McGarvey's comments.
- United States Senate The Senate is the factual setting for McConnell's return and votes, without particular reputational spin.
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Elections
Ohio, Kentucky Races Headline 2026 Midterm Ballots
PN Team • 10 hours ago
Ohio voters on Nov. 3 will pick a successor to term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine, with Republican Vivek Ramaswamy facing Democrat Amy Acton and Libertarian Don Kissick. The same ballot includes a special U.S. Senate election to fill the remainder of JD Vance's term, pitting incumbent appointee Jon Husted against challengers; the winner serves until 2028. All 15 Ohio U.S. House seats are also up, under a new Republican-favorable congressional map targeting Democratic-held districts. In Kentucky, Republican Andy Barr and Democrat Charles Booker are competing for the seat long held by retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Indiana will re-elect its House delegation, and ballot measures appear in all three states.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) Described as benefiting from a favorable new congressional map, a neutral factual point.
- Vivek Ramaswamy Named as a candidate in a straightforward factual election description.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned factually as a party fielding candidates in multiple races.
- Indiana Mentioned briefly and factually regarding House re-election races.
- Kentucky Referenced factually as host of a competitive Senate race.
- Mike DeWine Mentioned neutrally as the term-limited outgoing governor.
- Mitch McConnell Mentioned neutrally as the retiring senator whose seat is being contested.
- Ohio Central subject of factual election coverage without favorable or unfavorable framing.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced factually as the body whose Ohio seats are up for election.
- United States Senate Referenced factually regarding the special election to fill a vacant seat.
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Medicine & Health
Montana’s expansive right-to-try law draws biotech investors, FDA scrutiny
PN Team • 1 month ago
Montana has enacted the nation's most expansive "right-to-try" law, letting any resident—not just terminally ill patients—access experimental drugs that have only completed Phase I trials showing basic safety, without proven effectiveness. This breaks sharply from federal right-to-try rules, including those signed during Trump's first term, which require patients to have exhausted approved treatments.
Biotech startups see Montana as a workaround to the FDA's costly approval process. Infinita, a company tied to a deregulated zone in Honduras and led by CEO Niklas Anzinger, runs the only review board approving treatments so far, charging companies a application fee; it approved its first treatment last month. Critics, including patient advocates, warn of conflicts of interest and unproven claims reaching vulnerable patients. The program's future depends on whether the FDA intervenes—an open question, especially with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has touted his own use of unapproved treatments, expressing support for expanded access. FDA officials met with industry and patient groups in June but gave no commitment on enforcement.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Kennedy is portrayed touting his own use of unapproved treatments and supporting expanded access, which casts him in a controversial light amid safety concerns.
- Montana Montana is the subject of a controversial law criticized for enabling unproven treatments to reach vulnerable patients.
- Donald Trump Trump's first-term right-to-try law is cited mainly as a contrast to Montana's more expansive version, a neutral factual mention.
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Congress
Iowa Senate candidate presses Congress and DOJ over Epstein files
PN Team • 1 month ago
Iowa state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, the Democratic candidate for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District, criticized Congress and the Department of Justice for inaction on investigating Jeffrey Epstein and his associates. She spoke after visiting a traveling "reading room" exhibit at The Loft DSM, staged by the Institute for Primary Facts and DEFIANCE.org, featuring excerpts from DOJ-released Epstein investigation documents. She met with family members of Virginia Giuffre and self-identified Epstein victim Sharlene Rochard.
Trone Garriott criticized incumbent Rep. Zach Nunn for not signing Rep. Thomas Massie's discharge petition, which would let state attorneys general, victims and members of Congress sue the DOJ over withheld documents; only three other Republicans have signed it. Nunn's campaign countered that he voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act and accused Trone Garriott of skipping Iowa Senate votes on sex-offender sentencing. Giuffre's brother, Scott Roberts, thanked Trone Garriott for hearing survivors' stories and called for congressional leaders willing to hold powerful figures accountable.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Thomas Massie Massie is portrayed favorably as the author of a transparency-focused discharge petition.
- United States Congress Congress is criticized directly for inaction on investigating Epstein and his associates.
- Republican Party (United States) Only three Republicans besides Massie signed the discharge petition, implying broader party reluctance on the Epstein files issue.
- Democratic Party (United States) Trone Garriott is identified as the Democratic candidate but the party itself is only tangentially referenced.
- Iowa Iowa is mentioned as the political context for the congressional race without reputational implication.
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Elections
Kentucky Senate, House candidates set first televised debates of 2024 cycle
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Central Kentucky voters will finally see live televised debates in two closely watched congressional races, with Election Day on Nov. 3 fast approaching. On Oct. 19 at 7 p.m., Republican Sen. Andy Barr and Democratic challenger Charles Booker are scheduled to debate live on WKYT in Lexington for the U.S. Senate seat. Booker previously ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2020 and 2022.
On Oct. 22 at 7 p.m., candidates for Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, Republican Ralph Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo, will debate on WDKY/Fox 56, also in Lexington. Each debate will run one hour.
Until now, neither race had featured a televised debate this cycle. Barr and Alvarado both declined invitations to appear on the statewide public broadcaster KET, leaving Booker and Dembo to go on its "Kentucky Tonight" program alone. Barr had earlier criticized public broadcasting after skipping a KET forum during the spring primary, calling it a "left-wing outlet."
Sources:
Sentiment
- Ralph Alvarado Alvarado is noted for declining a public broadcaster debate invitation, a mildly negative detail.
- Charles Booker (American politician) Booker is portrayed neutrally to slightly favorably as an active debate participant, though his past losses are noted factually.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidates Barr and Alvarado are mentioned factually but noted as having declined public broadcaster debate invitations, a mildly unflattering detail.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates Booker and Dembo are mentioned factually as party representatives in the races without clear favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Kentucky Kentucky is mentioned as the state context for the elections without evaluative content.
- Kentucky's 6th congressional district The 6th Congressional District is factually referenced as the race location.
- Lexington, Kentucky Lexington is mentioned neutrally as the location of both debates.
- United States Senate The U.S. Senate seat is mentioned factually as the office being contested.
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Elections
Texas Governor’s Race Tightens as National Democrats Pour Money Into Hinojosa Bid
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Polls show Texas Gov. Greg Abbott facing an unusually close re-election fight against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, a sharp contrast to his more than 10-point win four years ago. Most surveys give Abbott a small single-digit lead, including a Fox News poll showing him roughly five points ahead, but a New York Times/Siena poll found Hinojosa leading 49% to 46%. Analysts attribute the tightening largely to dissatisfaction with President Trump, whose national approval has slipped, along with concerns over cost of living and gas prices eroding his support in Texas.
National Democrats are now investing in the race: Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association each pledged $1 million to Hinojosa's campaign, which had lagged in fundraising compared with Abbott's $18 million war chest and Senate candidate James Talarico's $70 million haul. Talarico also leads Republican Ken Paxton in several Senate polls. Democrats haven't won statewide in Texas since 1994, and turnout remains the key variable: strong Republican mobilization likely secures Abbott's win, but low turnout could open the door for an upset.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Gina Hinojosa Hinojosa is portrayed as gaining momentum, leading in one major poll, and attracting significant national financial support.
- James Talarico Talarico is portrayed favorably with a massive fundraising haul and a lead over his opponent in Senate polls.
- Donald Trump Trump's declining national approval and economic concerns are cited as dragging down Abbott's standing, a negative reflection on him.
- Ken Paxton Paxton is described as trailing Talarico in Senate polling, a negative signal for his campaign.
- Greg Abbott Abbott is shown facing an unexpectedly close race and eroding support compared to his prior landslide win.
- Democratic Governors Association The DGA is shown actively investing $1 million to help Hinojosa, reflecting strategic engagement and modest favorable framing.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as mounting a competitive challenge in a historically difficult state, a mildly favorable development.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned only as Pritzker's home state in a neutral factual context.
- United States Senate Referenced as the office Talarico is running for, a neutral factual mention.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is mentioned neutrally regarding turnout dynamics affecting the race's outcome.
- Texas Texas is the neutral setting of the political race described throughout the article.
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Elections
Trump rallies in Clarksville as midterm battle for Congress intensifies
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
President Donald Trump traveled to Clarksville, Tennessee, Saturday to rally Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections, speaking at F&M Bank Arena four days before the state's early voting begins Oct. 14. The Republican National Committee framed the event as part of a broader push to help the GOP maintain its congressional majorities.
Analysts note the visit comes as several Senate races once considered safely Republican—including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska—have become more competitive, even as Tennessee and Kentucky remain considered solidly in Trump's column. ABC News political director Rick Klein said voter frustration tied to the economy, gas and diesel prices, tariffs, and foreign policy issues like the Iran war could shape outcomes, giving voters a chance to judge two years of unified Republican control in Washington.
Local authorities warned of traffic disruptions, road closures, and limited parking near the arena. Tennessee's early voting runs through Oct. 29, with Election Day set for Nov. 3.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as actively campaigning and rallying support, a mildly favorable political engagement depiction.
- Tennessee Tennessee is portrayed as solidly Republican and host to the rally, a mildly favorable mention.
- Kentucky Kentucky is described as remaining solidly Republican, a mildly favorable political stability note.
- Alaska Alaska is mentioned as a Senate race that has become more competitive, a neutral factual note.
- Iowa Iowa is cited as an increasingly competitive Senate race, a neutral political fact.
- Kansas Kansas is cited as an increasingly competitive Senate race, a neutral political fact.
- Nebraska Nebraska is cited as an increasingly competitive Senate race, a neutral political fact.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is discussed neutrally in context of midterm election dynamics and competitive races.
- United States Senate The Senate is referenced factually with competitive races noted, a neutral political update.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned factually regarding the midterm battle for its control.
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Elections
Rising Cancer Rates Become Flashpoint in Iowa’s Midterm Races
PN Team • 1 month ago
Iowa's rising cancer rate has emerged as a bipartisan issue in the state's competitive 2026 midterm races for Congress and governor. Iowa has the second-highest cancer rate in the country, behind only Kentucky, and is one of just three states where rates are climbing, driven by increases in lung, prostate and breast cancers. Candidates from both parties, including Republican Rep. Zach Nunn and Democratic challenger Sarah Trone Garriott, have made the issue central to their campaigns, with voters increasingly linking it to concerns about nitrate contamination in water from agricultural runoff.
Democrats such as Senate candidate Josh Turek and House candidate Christina Bohannan have tied the issue to opposition against Medicaid cuts under President Trump's tax and spending law, warning of coverage losses for Iowans. Republicans, including Rep. Ashley Hinson, have emphasized expanding cancer screening access and conservation funding. Scientists remain divided on whether nitrate-contaminated water is driving the increase, and a state-commissioned study has yet to reach firm conclusions, but polling shows water quality now ranks among voters' top concerns heading into the election.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Iowa Iowa is portrayed negatively due to its high and rising cancer rates and water contamination concerns.
- Ashley Hinson Hinson is portrayed positively for emphasizing cancer screening access and conservation funding.
- Donald Trump Trump's tax and spending law is criticized by Democrats for potential Medicaid coverage losses.
- Kentucky Kentucky is mentioned negatively as having the highest cancer rate, worse than Iowa.
- Christina Bohannan Bohannan is mentioned neutrally as linking the issue to Medicaid cut opposition.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidates are tied to the issue via Medicaid criticism, a balanced political mention.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are portrayed as emphasizing screening access and conservation funding, a neutral-to-mild positive framing.
- United States Congress Congress is mentioned only as the office being contested, a neutral factual reference.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned only as context for the candidates' races.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned only as context for a candidate's race.
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