When will a member of Trump’s Cabinet leave?
Related terms
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Donald Trump -
White House -
Marco Rubio -
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. -
Pete Hegseth -
Markwayne Mullin -
Sean Duffy -
JD Vance -
Doug Burgum -
Doug Collins (politician) -
Brooke Rollins -
Lee Zeldin -
Linda McMahon -
Cabinet reshuffle -
Scott Bessent -
Resignation -
Economic policy of the Trump administration -
Susie Wiles -
Howard Lutnick -
Todd Blanche
Total Volume
$200.5k
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Leading Market
Before Jan 2027
Kalshi 75%
Before Jan 2027 Volume
$8.7k
Kalshi $8.7k
Before Jan 2027 24h Change
-12.00%
Kalshi -12.00%
Calculate Your Potential Return
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| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 2027 | 76.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Before Dec 2026 | 58.0¢ | 7.0% |
|
— | — | — |
| Susie Wiles - White House Chief of Staff | — | — | — | 27.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Pete Hegseth - Secretary of War | — | — | — | 15.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Kelly Loeffler - Administrator of the Small Business Administration | — | — | — | 12.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
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Emerging News
Congress
Illinois Democrats divided on how aggressively to confront Trump if party retakes Congress
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Illinois Democrats are split on strategy ahead of potential midterm gains that could hand their party control of the House and possibly the Senate. Some, like Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who is running for Senate, favor confrontation, including refusing to confirm Trump nominees or fund ICE and potentially ending the filibuster. Others, including Sen. Tammy Duckworth and Rep. Bill Foster, favor combining aggressive oversight of Trump officials and businesses with legislative wins, while downplaying quick impeachment. Republicans, including Speaker Mike Johnson and Trump himself, warn that a Democratic majority would mean relentless investigations and a renewed impeachment push.
The debate reflects broader uncertainty over Democratic strategy and control of Congress following the November midterms, a key variable for prediction markets tracking the 2026 elections and any renewed impeachment proceedings.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is depicted as a target of potential confrontation and warnings about impeachment, casting him in an adversarial light.
- Juliana Stratton Stratton is portrayed as taking a strong, principled stance favoring confrontation, a neutral-to-slightly favorable depiction.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is portrayed as internally divided over strategy, a neutral-to-mildly negative framing.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown warning about Democratic control, a factual but mildly adversarial mention.
- Illinois Illinois is mentioned as the state context for the Democrats discussed, a neutral geographic reference.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced neutrally as the body whose control is at stake.
- United States House of Representatives The House is mentioned factually as a body Democrats could gain control of.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned factually regarding potential Democratic control.
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Elections
Miami Republican María Elvira Salazar draws backlash over Trump immigration ad
PN Team • 1 month ago
Rep. María Elvira Salazar, a Miami Republican, is facing pushback after releasing a campaign ad filmed outside the White House urging President Trump to soften immigration enforcement, warning his policies are hurting the GOP's standing with Latino voters. Many voters in her heavily Hispanic, majority-immigrant district say their support for Trump remains firm even as their confidence in Salazar has slipped, with some accusing her of political self-preservation and poor timing rather than genuine conviction.
Salazar faces Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez, a fellow former TV anchor, in a district Trump won by nearly 15 points in 2024 but which analysts now describe as competitive. Trump publicly criticized Salazar's ad but stopped short of harsher attacks he's aimed at other GOP critics; Salazar later said she had a "fantastic" follow-up conversation with him. The district has been heavily affected by immigration enforcement, with many Venezuelan, Haitian, Cuban and Nicaraguan residents losing humanitarian parole and TPS protections. The Cook Political Report still rates the race "likely Republican," though Democrats point to a fundraising surge for Rodriguez.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP is depicted as losing standing with Latino voters due to Trump's immigration policies.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are shown gaining momentum via a fundraising surge and a competitive challenger, casting the party favorably.
- Donald Trump Trump's immigration policies are described as hurting the GOP and he is shown publicly criticizing an ally, though he softened his response.
- Florida Florida is mentioned only as the geographic setting for the district.
- Miami Miami is mentioned as Salazar's district location without additional reputational framing.
- United States House of Representatives Referenced only as the institutional context for Salazar's role as a representative.
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Administration Watch
Taxpayer-funded pro-Trump ads spark backlash from Virginia Democrats
PN Team • 1 month ago
Controversy is growing over a series of federally funded advertisements praising President Trump, which critics say amount to taxpayer-financed self-promotion. The Associated Press reported the three ads have cost nearly $1.5 million, with the newest spot closely resembling a 2024 Trump campaign ad. The Wall Street Journal reported the Department of Homeland Security helped finance the spots.
Virginia Democrats have been especially vocal. Sen. Tim Kaine called the ads illegal and said they reflect Trump's sagging popularity amid rising costs tied to tariffs and his handling of conflict with Iran. Rep. Eugene Vindman said Trump is trying to change the subject ahead of the midterms, while former Rep. Tom Perriello, a congressional candidate, criticized Republican rival John McGuire for staying silent. Several Virginia Republicans facing competitive House races did not respond to requests for comment.
The White House defended the ads as public service announcements reminding Americans to "love their country," insisting they are not campaign material since Trump is not on any ballot.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is central to a controversy over taxpayer-funded ads seen as self-promotional and possibly illegal, with claims of sagging popularity.
- John McGuire (Virginia politician) McGuire is criticized by a rival candidate for staying silent on the controversy, casting him in a somewhat evasive light.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans facing competitive races are noted for staying silent, implying evasiveness on a controversial issue.
- Democratic Party (United States) Virginia Democrats are portrayed as vocal critics of the ads, a neutral-to-mildly favorable framing of their political activity.
- Virginia Virginia is mentioned as the political backdrop for the controversy without direct reputational framing.
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Elections
Salazar releases campaign ad criticizing Trump immigration enforcement
PN Team • 1 month ago
Miami Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar released a campaign ad criticizing President Trump's immigration enforcement, saying some efforts "have gone too far" and warning him to be wary of his advisers' counsel. The ad, filmed in Washington, cites ICE data claiming half of detainees have no criminal convictions or pending charges, pushing back on the administration's "worst of the worst" messaging. It comes seven weeks before Salazar faces re-election in Florida's 27th District, a Miami-Dade seat that is roughly 74% Hispanic and that Trump won with 57% of the vote in 2024, and which Democrats hope to flip.
Trump has repeatedly endorsed Salazar's re-election. Her Democratic challenger, former news anchor Elliot Rodriguez, called the ad political opportunism, noting her prior votes to fund ICE. Salazar has long pushed a bipartisan immigration overhaul, the Dignity Act, which has drawn little Republican support and accusations of amnesty advocacy. The ad's digital targeting reportedly excludes several coastal zip codes that favored Kamala Harris in 2024.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's immigration enforcement is directly criticized in the ad as having "gone too far," casting him in a negative light.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as hoping to flip the district, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP is mentioned as offering little support for Salazar's immigration bill, a mildly negative but minor detail.
- United States House of Representatives Salazar's House seat and re-election race are central to the story but described neutrally.
- Miami Miami is mentioned only as Salazar's home base, a neutral geographic detail.
- Miami-Dade County, Florida Miami-Dade County is described factually as the district's location and demographic makeup.
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Elections
Trump rallies in Georgia for Collins and Jackson amid battleground-state tensions
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
President Trump traveled to Dalton, Georgia, to rally for Senate candidate Mike Collins and gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson ahead of a competitive midterm election. Unlike recent stops in safely Republican states, Georgia remains a genuine battleground, with Collins facing Sen. Jon Ossoff and Jackson facing former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Both Democrats seized on the visit, arguing it ties the GOP ticket to Trump's economic record and 2020 election denialism; Collins has echoed Trump's fraud claims without directly affirming Biden's legitimate win. Gov. Brian Kemp, who delayed endorsing Collins, skipped the rally. The race highlights GOP divisions and narrowing margins even in deep-red Georgia districts.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is tied to election denialism and used as a political liability in a competitive race.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP is shown as divided, with internal tensions highlighted by Kemp's snub.
- Georgia (U.S. state) Georgia is depicted as a contested battleground reflecting political uncertainty for the GOP.
- Jon Ossoff Ossoff is portrayed as a credible opponent in a competitive race, a mildly favorable framing.
- Keisha Lance Bottoms Bottoms is presented as a strong gubernatorial contender highlighting Democratic competitiveness.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are mentioned as framing the rally against Trump's record but are portrayed neutrally.
- Atlanta Atlanta is mentioned only as Bottoms' former mayoral position, a neutral factual reference.
- United States Senate The Senate race is referenced factually as the context for Collins vs. Ossoff.
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Elections
Texas GOP convention showcases split economic message ahead of midterms
PN Team • 2 months ago
At the Texas Republican convention in Dallas, GOP leaders and candidates leaned on new federal tax breaks — including deductions for tips and overtime and an extension of 2017 tax cuts — as evidence President Trump and the party have helped working families. At the same time, they blamed Democrats and the Biden administration for high grocery and gas prices, largely avoiding discussion of Trump's tariffs and the Iran conflict, which polls show voters associate with rising costs. Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP's U.S. Senate nominee, touted his own tax proposals while attacking Democratic opponent James Talarico's tax record. Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick emphasized low taxes and a strong state economy without addressing affordability concerns.
Democrats, including state party chair Kendall Scudder and national committee officials, used the convention to argue Republicans have driven up costs while favoring corporations and the wealthy. The dueling narratives underscore how affordability could shape competitive Texas races this midterm cycle.
Sources:
Sentiment
- James Talarico Talarico's tax record is directly attacked by Paxton, casting him in a negative light within the narrative.
- Donald Trump Trump is credited with tax breaks helping working families, though tariffs and cost concerns linked to him are downplayed by his own party.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are portrayed as blamed by Republicans for high costs while also pushing back with their own critique, a balanced but mildly contentious mention.
- Iran Iran is mentioned as a conflict linked to rising costs that Republicans avoided discussing, a tangential negative association.
- Ken Paxton Paxton promotes his tax proposals while attacking his opponent, a mostly self-promotional but contentious portrayal.
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP convention is depicted touting tax cuts as helping families but also facing criticism for avoiding affordability issues, a mixed portrayal.
- Greg Abbott Abbott touts a strong state economy but is noted as avoiding affordability concerns, a mildly mixed mention.
- Dallas Dallas is simply the location of the convention with no reputational implication.
- Texas Texas is the setting for the political convention and economic debate, a neutral factual mention.
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Elections
Texas Republicans tout tax cuts, blame Democrats for prices at Dallas convention
PN Team • 2 months ago
At the Texas GOP's midterm convention in Dallas, Republican candidates and officials credited President Trump's tax policies—including new breaks for tips, overtime and the extension of 2017 tax cuts—for helping working families, while blaming Democrats and the Biden administration for high grocery and gas prices. Attorney General Ken Paxton, the GOP Senate nominee, attacked Democratic opponent James Talarico's tax record, while U.S. House candidates Carlos and Monica De La Cruz emphasized their working-class backgrounds and GOP tax relief. Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick framed the election as a choice between conservatism and "socialism," touting Texas's low-tax economy without addressing rising costs.
Democrats countered throughout the convention, arguing Republicans, tariffs and the Iran conflict have driven up costs for consumers while benefiting corporations and the wealthy. Talarico, Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin proposed raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. The clashing narratives over affordability and economic credit are expected to shape Texas's competitive midterm races, particularly in battleground U.S. House districts.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's tax policies are credited by Republicans as helping working families, a favorable portrayal.
- Republican Party (United States) Texas Republicans are portrayed touting tax cuts and economic wins, a generally favorable framing despite criticism of unaddressed costs.
- Texas Texas is portrayed positively as having a low-tax economy per Republican framing.
- Iran Iran is referenced as a factor Democrats blame for rising costs, a mildly negative context.
- Ken Paxton Paxton is shown attacking his opponent's tax record, a neutral-to-mildly favorable political tactic.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democrats are shown pushing back on GOP narratives and proposing tax policy, a balanced but tangential mention.
- Dallas Dallas is simply the location of the convention, a neutral factual mention.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned only as the context for battleground House races without specific reputational framing.
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Elections
Supreme Court leaves in place injunction blocking USPS mail ballot rule
PN Team • 1 month ago
The U.S. Supreme Court, in a 7-2 unsigned order, declined to disturb a preliminary injunction halting enforcement of a new U.S. Postal Service rule ahead of the 2026 midterms, drawing praise from officials in Michigan, Illinois, Colorado, and other states. The rule, issued after a March executive order from President Trump, would have required states to submit lists of mail-eligible voters and adopt standardized, trackable envelopes, with USPS withholding delivery of noncompliant ballots. The court said the government was unlikely to succeed on the merits given the midterms' proximity; Justices Alito and Thomas dissented, while Kavanaugh agreed the restrictions should not take effect for this election but suggested the government's underlying arguments could be reconsidered if similar rules were proposed earlier for a future election.
Michigan and 24 other states, including Illinois, sued within hours of the rule's publication, leading to a restraining order and then a Sept. 4 injunction that the high court left intact. Officials in Michigan, Illinois, and Colorado called the ruling a win for state authority over elections, while Trump denounced the decision on social media, criticizing the justices he appointed. The court did not rule on the rule's underlying legality, leaving that fight to continue in lower courts; existing mail-ballot processes remain unchanged as states begin distributing ballots for November. Attorney General Todd Blanche said the ruling turned partly on timing and that election-security efforts would continue beyond this cycle. In North Carolina, postal workers and union leaders have publicly defended mail-in voting's integrity amid ongoing fraud claims, as absentee voting proceeds under established security measures.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's rule was blocked and he is shown attacking the justices he appointed, reflecting negatively on him.
- Michigan Michigan led the successful lawsuit and officials praised the outcome as protecting state election authority.
- Colorado Colorado officials praised the ruling as a win for state authority over elections.
- Illinois Illinois officials welcomed the ruling and joined the successful lawsuit.
- North Carolina North Carolina postal workers and union leaders are shown defending mail-in voting's integrity.
- United States Postal Service USPS is mentioned as the entity that would have enforced the blocked mail-ballot rule, a neutral factual reference.
- United States The United States is referenced generally as the country whose electoral process is at issue.
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Elections
Supreme Court Rejects Trump-Backed Missouri Map, Reverting to 2022 Districts
PN Team • 2 months ago
The U.S. Supreme Court has ended, for now, Missouri's year-long redistricting battle by rejecting the Trump-backed congressional map, clearing the way for the state to use districts drawn in 2022 for the November election. Secretary of State Denny Hoskins directed local election authorities to use the 2022 map after the ruling, following the Missouri Supreme Court's earlier order; Attorney General Catherine Hanaway followed suit. Hoskins had briefly been found in contempt for trying to use the new map before correcting course, and the court imposed no penalty once he complied.
The switch means Missouri could hold its general election under different districts than were used in the August primary, potentially changing candidate choices for roughly a quarter of the state's voters. The dispute centers on a GOP-drawn map targeting Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City-area seat, part of a broader Trump-driven redistricting push following similar action in Texas. Gov. Mike Kehoe still hopes the map can be revived, watching the 8th Circuit, which will hear arguments ahead of a Sept. 19 deadline to finalize ballots for overseas military voters. A statewide referendum on the map also remains on the November ballot.
Sentiment
- Republican Party (United States) The GOP-drawn map targeting a Democratic seat was rejected, reflecting a setback for Republican redistricting efforts.
- Donald Trump The Trump-backed map was rejected by the Supreme Court, portraying a legal defeat for his redistricting push.
- Democratic Party (United States) The ruling reverts to a map more favorable to Democratic Rep. Cleaver's seat, a mild positive for the party.
- Texas Referenced as part of the broader Trump-driven redistricting push, a mildly negative association with partisan gerrymandering efforts.
- United States House of Representatives Mentioned tangentially as the body whose composition is affected by redistricting, without direct reputational implications.
- Kansas City, Missouri Mentioned as the location of the contested congressional seat, a factual geographic reference.
- Missouri Central to the factual redistricting dispute without inherent reputational judgment on the state itself.
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2028 Cycle
Newsom’s South Carolina swing spotlights 2028 potential and California baggage
PN Team • 2 months ago
California Gov. Gavin Newsom capped a multi-state "take it back tour" with eight public events across South Carolina, plus stops in Alabama and North Carolina, intensifying speculation about a 2028 Democratic presidential run. In North Carolina, Newsom campaigned for U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper in Charlotte and rallied Labor Day weekend crowds in Monroe, urging Democrats to focus on the 2026 midterms rather than 2028. He accused Trump of ruthlessness, corruption and attempting to "nationalize" elections through mail-in voting restrictions, telling supporters it's time to "fight fire with fire." Newsom told the Associated Press a 2028 decision could come before year's end.
Voters and strategists increasingly frame California itself as Newsom's central liability, with critics warning his state's liberal image could hurt him against rivals like Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg. Republicans, including North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley and local officials, mocked the visits with "Wrong Coast" signs and accused him of trying to "California" their states. Newsom's team counters that his progressive record on health care, wages and climate could be an asset in a Democratic primary. South Carolina, hosting Democrats' first 2028 primary, remains a key early proving ground alongside hopefuls like Cory Booker.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Newsom accuses Trump of ruthlessness, corruption, and election manipulation, casting him negatively.
- California California is framed as a political liability due to its liberal image potentially hurting Newsom's national prospects.
- Roy Cooper Roy Cooper is portrayed positively as a Senate candidate receiving campaign support from Newsom.
- Josh Shapiro Shapiro is mentioned as a strong rival to Newsom, implicitly favorable by comparison.
- Pete Buttigieg Buttigieg is cited as a potential rival with broader appeal than Newsom, a mildly favorable positioning.
- Gavin Newsom Newsom is portrayed as an ambitious, energetic potential 2028 candidate touting his progressive record, though also facing criticism over his state's image.
- Republican Party (United States) Republicans are shown mocking Newsom's visits, portraying them as reactive and dismissive rather than substantive.
- South Carolina South Carolina is highlighted positively as an important early primary state for Democrats.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is mentioned as the context for Newsom's tour and 2028 speculation without clear favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Governor of California Newsom's governorship is referenced as the basis for his political record but is largely descriptive.
- United States Senate The Senate is mentioned as the office Roy Cooper is campaigning for, a neutral factual reference.
- Alabama Alabama is mentioned simply as a stop on Newsom's tour, a neutral factual reference.
- Charlotte, North Carolina Charlotte is mentioned neutrally as the site of a campaign event.
- North Carolina North Carolina is referenced as a key campaign stop and political battleground, described factually.
- United States The United States is mentioned generally in the context of national politics without specific reputational framing.
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Trump Administration Departures in 2026
Leading:
99.9%
White House Press Secretary
Vol $782.4k
Who Will Be Trump’s Next Press Secretary
Leading:
18.5%
Anna Kelly
Vol $63.3k
When Will Trump Name His Next Press Secretary
Leading:
87%
Before Mar 1, 2027
Vol $636.47