Trump
Trump Administration Departures in 2026
The Trump administration has already seen a steady rotation of cabinet secretaries, senior advisers, and agency heads since taking office. Speculation continues over which officials might resign, be fired, or move to new posts in 2026. Candidates span cabinet-level figures and senior aides across national security, economic, and domestic policy roles.
Why Markets Are Watching
Personnel turnover shapes the direction of federal policy, from trade and immigration enforcement to national security strategy. A high-profile departure can signal internal friction, policy shifts, or realignment ahead of the midterm elections. Each change in leadership carries ripple effects across agencies and the administration’s broader agenda.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Outcome
This question isolates a narrow, binary proposition for each named official: will they leave their current role before the end of 2026? Traders weigh public reporting, political tensions, and historical turnover patterns in the administration to assess likelihood. The structure lets markets track an entire roster of officials as independent, parallel bets on administration stability.
Related terms
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White House -
United States midterm election -
Marco Rubio -
National security -
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. -
Public policy -
Pete Hegseth -
Sean Duffy -
Mehmet Oz -
Doug Burgum -
Doug Collins (politician) -
Kash Patel -
Brooke Rollins -
Scott Bessent -
Cabinet reshuffle -
Linda McMahon -
Lee Zeldin -
Resignation -
Economic policy of the Trump administration -
Steven Cheung
Total Volume
$7.1m
Kalshi $4.7m · Polymarket $2.4m
Leading Market
White House Press Secretary
Kalshi 100%
White House Press Secretary Volume
$782.4k
Kalshi $782.4k
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Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Special Presidential Envoy for Special MissionsRic Grenell | 68.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Ambassador to the United NationsMike Waltz | 45.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade Ambassador to the United Nations on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| White House Chief of StaffSusie Wiles | 46.0¢ | 7.0% | , trade White House Chief of Staff on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | — | — | — |
| Susie Wiles | — | — | — | 42.0¢ | 5% | , trade Susie Wiles on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Pete Hegseth | — | — | — | 39.0¢ | 5% | , trade Pete Hegseth on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Special Presidential Envoy for Special MissionsRic Grenell | $4,745.55 | No market | |
| Ambassador to the United NationsMike Waltz | $534.40 | No market | |
| White House Chief of StaffSusie Wiles | $337,842.14 | No market | |
| Susie Wiles | $124,749.46 | No market | |
| Pete Hegseth | $689,114.07 | No market |