Wisconsin’s 2nd Congressional District House Race 2026
Wisconsin’s 2nd Congressional District, anchored by Madison and the surrounding southern counties, holds its U.S. House election in November 2026. The seat has long leaned Democratic, reflecting the district’s university-centric and suburban voter base. Both major parties will field candidates as part of the broader battle for control of the House.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the House hinges on the cumulative outcome of races like this one, even in districts considered safe for one party. A Democratic hold here keeps the party’s path to a majority intact, while any shift would signal a broader national realignment. Local turnout patterns in Madison also serve as a bellwether for suburban and college-town voting trends heading into the midterms.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
The market reduces this race to a binary question: which party’s nominee wins the general election. Because the district is not historically competitive, the contract isolates how much attention traders pay to incumbency strength, candidate quality, and any late shifts in national sentiment. It effectively measures confidence in continuity versus the possibility of an upset tied to broader midterm dynamics.
Related terms
Total Volume
$30.6k
Kalshi $1.7k · Polymarket $28.9k
Leading Market
Mark Pocan
Kalshi 100% · Polymarket 99%
Mark Pocan Volume
$20.4k
Kalshi $212.02 · Polymarket $20.2k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark PocanDemocratic Party | 99.4¢ | 7.0% |
|
99.0¢ | 5% |
|
| Republican Party | 1.9¢ | 7.0% |
|
1.0¢ | 5% |
|
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
Emerging News
Elections
Suspicious mail sent to congressional, election offices nationwide prompts FBI investigation
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan's Madison office received a suspicious piece of mail on Oct. 19, prompting a hazmat response from the Madison Fire Department. Staff recognized it as matching mailings sent to officials around the country containing an unidentified powdery substance; the envelope was not opened and its contents were sent for testing. Similar mail was earlier received by U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore's Milwaukee office and the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Other targets reportedly include election offices in Oklahoma, Louisiana and Ohio, plus Sen. Chuck Schumer, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Sen. Chris Murphy and Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester. The FBI and U.S. Postal Inspection Service are investigating and working to identify those responsible ahead of the election.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Gwen Moore Gwen Moore's office was targeted by suspicious mail, portraying her as a victim rather than reflecting on her conduct.
- Mark Pocan Mark Pocan's office received suspicious mail requiring a hazmat response, a victimizing but not reputation-damaging event.
- Madison, Wisconsin Madison is mentioned as the location of Pocan's office that received the suspicious mail, a neutral factual reference.
- Milwaukee Milwaukee is mentioned as the location of Moore's office that received suspicious mail, a neutral factual reference.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is referenced as the state where the targeted offices are located, a neutral factual mention.
- United States House of Representatives The House is referenced only via the offices of its members being targeted, a factual mention without clear benefit or harm.
Related Events
Related Events
Congress
Wisconsin lawmakers return to DC, gear up for midterm campaign push
PN Team • 2 months ago
Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation returned to Washington for a busy week before the Labor Day recess, with midterm politics dominating the agenda. Republican Reps. Tom Tiffany, Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil attended a White House Rose Garden dinner for vulnerable GOP members, where President Trump pledged to campaign in battleground districts, singling out Tiffany's gubernatorial run against Democrat David Crowley. Van Orden faces a competitive re-election contest against Democrat Rebecca Cooke. Separately, Van Orden sponsored a bill loosening D.C. motorcycle helmet requirements to mirror Wisconsin law, drawing criticism from Rep. Mark Pocan.
The House also passed a Republican-led resolution denouncing socialism, tied to a contested voter ID measure, splitting largely along party lines. Lawmakers cleared a government funding extension to December 11, signed by Trump, avoiding a pre-election shutdown. The delegation also pressed Trump for a disaster declaration after July storms, while Wisconsin election officials warned that Trump's mail-in ballot executive order would be difficult to implement before November.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump is portrayed as actively campaigning for allies and signing funding legislation, a mildly favorable political role.
- Bryan Steil Steil is mentioned attending a White House dinner without notable praise or criticism.
- Mark Pocan Pocan is shown criticizing a Republican bill, a mildly critical but minor mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned in the context of a Democratic gubernatorial candidate and re-election opponent, a factual reference without clear favorable or unfavorable framing.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican representatives and a House resolution are mentioned factually without strong positive or negative framing.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the central subject of the article, portrayed neutrally amid political and disaster-related developments.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced factually as the setting for legislative activity.
- United States House of Representatives The House passing resolutions and funding bills is reported neutrally.
- Washington, D.C. Washington, D.C. is referenced as the location of legislative activity and a policy dispute over local helmet law.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Wisconsin’s projected budget surplus grows to $3 billion ahead of governor’s race
PN Team • 2 months ago
Wisconsin's projected budget surplus has climbed to about $3 billion, up from roughly $2.5 billion projected in January, after state revenue for fiscal year 2026 came in higher than expected. The Department of Revenue reported a 3.4% increase in tax collections, reaching about $23.1 billion, though the figures remain preliminary pending review by the State Controller's Office ahead of an October 15 fiscal report.
The larger surplus comes months after a bipartisan deal combining taxpayer rebates, property tax relief, and school funding failed in the state Senate. With voters set to choose a governor and Legislature in November, the surplus has become a campaign flashpoint. Republican candidate Tom Tiffany wants to return the full surplus to taxpayers, while Democratic candidate David Crowley favors targeted relief and long-term investments in schools and services. Polling shows voters divided on the issue, with a slim majority favoring spending on services over full rebates, though it's unclear how heavily the surplus will weigh on ballots this fall.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is shown with a growing budget surplus, reflecting positively on the state's fiscal health.
- David Crowley (Wisconsin politician) Crowley is portrayed as advocating balanced, service-oriented policy, a mildly positive characterization.
- Democratic Party (United States) Democratic candidate's position is mentioned as favoring targeted relief and investments, a neutral factual reference.
- Republican Party (United States) Republican candidate's stance on returning the surplus is factually noted without clear favorable or unfavorable framing.
Related Events
Related Events
Local & State
Madison council members move to fire interim police monitor
PN Team • 3 weeks ago
Multiple Madison Common Council members say they will back a resolution from District 2 Alder Will Ochowicz to terminate the appointment of Interim Independent Police Monitor Aeiramique Glass. District 13 Alder Tag Evers confirmed support, and another alder who spoke anonymously said the move was overdue.
The resolution cites city memoranda raising concerns about Glass's failure to complete core duties, chiefly hiring a permanent independent monitor, and argues this constitutes a breach of contract. Glass was hired in late 2025, with her term originally set to end by mid-to-late 2026; the council extended her appointment in June. City Attorney Michael Haas says the council has authority to end the provisional appointment, a view disputed by the Police Civilian Oversight Board, whose vice chair argues only the board can hire or fire the monitor. Common Council VP Carmella Glenn and Alder Julia Matthews were the only two to oppose introducing the resolution. If passed, the Common Council Chief of Staff would oversee the monitor's office until a permanent hire is made.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Madison, Wisconsin Madison is the setting of this local government dispute, mentioned factually without reputational implication.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Madison officials to publicly test voting equipment ahead of midterms
PN Team • 1 week ago
Election officials in Madison, Wisconsin, will hold a public test of voting equipment Saturday at 9 a.m. in the Madison Municipal Building, part of standard pre-election procedures as the midterm election approaches in under two weeks. The test is intended to verify that voting machines accurately tabulate ballots before Election Day. Such equipment checks are routine across Wisconsin and other states ahead of major elections, aimed at reinforcing confidence in results and ensuring systems function properly before voters head to the polls.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Madison, Wisconsin Madison is portrayed positively as proactively conducting transparent, standard election security measures.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is mentioned as following routine, confidence-building election procedures common across states.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Flock license plate cameras emerge as flashpoint in San Francisco races
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
San Francisco's roughly 400 Flock automated license plate readers have become a key issue in city elections after a June SFPD audit found federal and out-of-state agencies searched local plate data hundreds of times, raising immigration enforcement and privacy concerns. Mayor Daniel Lurie responded by tightening restrictions, including a 30-day data retention limit.
Candidates are split. In the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi, Connie Chan wants to end federal funding for Flock, while Scott Wiener backs plate readers with privacy safeguards but hasn't committed on renewing the city's contract. Board of Supervisors incumbents are similarly divided: Matt Dorsey wants to renew and expand the program, Stephen Sherrill supports it conditionally, and Alan Wong backs crime-fighting tech generally without a specific Flock stance. In District 8, Gary McCoy, Darshini Patel, and Michael Nguyen all oppose the cameras, while District 10 candidates range from opposition to conditional support with added oversight.
The debate centers less on whether Flock cameras help solve crimes and more on whether new safeguards adequately address surveillance and data-sharing risks.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Connie Chan (politician) Chan is portrayed as taking a clear privacy-protective stance by opposing federal funding for Flock.
- Scott Wiener Wiener is depicted as supporting plate readers with safeguards but noncommittal on contract renewal, a neutral balanced stance.
- San Francisco San Francisco is the setting for the policy debate, mentioned factually without reputational slant.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
San Diego County releases voter guide for November general election
PN Team • 4 weeks ago
California voters head to the polls in November to decide statewide and local races alongside 14 ballot propositions, including a closely watched "billionaires tax" measure and a recall-process reform. San Diego County's voter guide outlines a packed slate of contests, with voter pamphlets mailed in late September and ballots beginning to arrive October 5.
Key federal races include five competitive U.S. House districts (48–52), pitting incumbents and challengers from both parties after redistricting reshaped several seats. State Senate and Assembly races feature multiple incumbents defending seats, while the California State Board of Equalization's District 4 race pits a local water official against a sitting state senator.
Locally, San Diego County voters will also choose county supervisors, school board members, and city officials across numerous municipalities including San Diego, Chula Vista, Carlsbad, Escondido, Oceanside, and others, alongside mayoral races and special district seats covering healthcare, water, and community college boards. The wide-ranging ballot reflects a highly competitive election cycle across Southern California.
Sources:
Sentiment
- California California is the backdrop state for the statewide and local election coverage, mentioned factually.
- California's 48th congressional district District 48 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 49th congressional district District 49 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 50th congressional district District 50 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 51st congressional district District 51 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- California's 52nd congressional district District 52 is listed among the five competitive U.S. House districts in a neutral factual mention.
- Democratic Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as one of the parties with candidates in competitive races.
- Republican Party (United States) Mentioned neutrally as one of the parties with candidates in competitive races.
- San Diego San Diego is named as one of the municipalities holding local elections, a neutral factual mention.
- San Diego County, California San Diego County is the central subject of the article, providing a neutral voter guide.
Related Events
Related Events
Education
Two candidates vie for Madison County school board chair in North Carolina
PN Team • 2 weeks ago
Republican John Bratz and Democrat Craig Goforth are running for Madison County, North Carolina's school board chair ahead of the Nov. 3 general election, with early voting beginning Oct. 15. Both candidates, in interviews with The News-Record, cited student safety, teacher support and funding as top priorities, along with facility maintenance and responsible financial planning.
Bratz, a current District 2 board member with a maintenance and engineering background, emphasized bus safety, competitive teacher compensation and preventative facility upkeep. Goforth, who has 18 years of prior school board experience and helped bring programs like ROTC and school resource officers to the county, focused on securing additional funding streams, managing growth from nearby Weaverville, and addressing food insecurity among students. Both candidates said transparency between the school board and community is essential, echoing the new superintendent's stated goal of improving communication with parents. The race also touches on statewide debates over private school voucher expansion and public school funding pressures affecting North Carolina districts.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Democratic Party (United States) A Democratic candidate is mentioned running a balanced, policy-focused campaign.
- North Carolina North Carolina is the setting for the race and broader school funding debates, mentioned neutrally.
- Republican Party (United States) A Republican candidate is mentioned running a balanced, policy-focused campaign.
Related Events
Related Events
Elections
Rebecca Cooke wins Democratic primary for third bid against Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin
PN Team • 2 months ago
Rebecca Cooke defeated Emily Berge in Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary, setting up a third consecutive matchup against Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Cooke, who grew up on a dairy farm near Eau Claire and works as a waitress and small-business owner, narrowly lost to Van Orden in 2024 by less than three percentage points after also losing the 2022 primary. She entered this year's primary with backing from the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program, while Berge campaigned as a local alternative skeptical of national party influence. Cooke holds a fundraising edge, having raised about $8.6 million to Van Orden's $7.5 million, though he retains nearly $3 million more cash on hand.
The western Wisconsin district, covering Eau Claire and La Crosse, has trended Republican in presidential races but is rated a toss-up, making it Democrats' top target in the state as they seek to retake the House majority in November. Cooke is campaigning on rural frustration over Trump administration policies, including tariffs that have hurt farm exports, cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, and rising fuel and fertilizer costs tied to the Iran conflict, while Van Orden defends his record backing Trump's agenda. The race is part of a broader Wisconsin battleground that includes the 1st District, where nurse Mitchell Berman will challenge GOP Rep. Bryan Steil, and the solid-red 7th District, won by Sean Duffy's son-in-law Michael Alfonso in the Republican primary.
Sentiment
- Donald Trump Trump's policies are cited as causing farm export losses, Medicaid/SNAP cuts, and rising costs, framing his administration negatively in this context.
- Iran Iran is mentioned as a source of the conflict contributing to rising fuel and fertilizer costs, a negative economic factor.
- Democratic Party (United States) The Democratic Party is mentioned as the primary context and target of the House retake effort, largely factual.
- Bryan Steil Bryan Steil is mentioned neutrally as the incumbent facing a challenger in a different district.
- Sean Duffy Sean Duffy is mentioned only tangentially as the father-in-law of a Republican primary winner.
- Wisconsin Wisconsin is the neutral geographic setting for the election coverage.
- Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party is mentioned factually as the incumbent party in the district without strong positive or negative framing.
- United States Congress Congress is referenced only as the general context of the election, without specific reputational implications.
- United States House of Representatives The House of Representatives is mentioned factually as the body Democrats seek to retake.
- Wisconsin's 1st congressional district Wisconsin's 1st congressional district is mentioned factually as another battleground race in the state.
Related Events
Elections
Boxer Marcus Johnson joins crowded Madison mayoral race
PN Team • 1 month ago
Marcus Robert Johnson, a Wisconsin Golden Gloves champion boxer, boxing trainer and east side bartender, launched his campaign for Madison mayor this week. Johnson said his platform will focus on government transparency and integrity, housing affordability and public safety, framing himself as an alternative to "politics as usual."
His entry brings the number of declared candidates in the Madison mayoral race to six who have filed a declaration of candidacy. A seventh contender, gym founder Jonny Hinds, has registered campaign finance paperwork but has not yet filed a declaration of candidacy. Incumbent Mayor Satya Rhodes-Conway has said she plans to seek re-election but had not made any official campaign filings as of midweek. The growing field signals an increasingly competitive contest for city hall, with candidates staking out positions on housing costs, public safety and government accountability as key issues for voters.
Sources:
Sentiment
- Madison, Wisconsin Madison is mentioned as the setting of the mayoral race without any particular reputational framing.
Related Events
Related Events
Related Events
Wisconsin’s 6th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
90.5%
Glenn Grothman
Vol $90.8k
Wisconsin’s 5th District House Race: Who Will Win in 2026
Leading:
97.5%
Scott Fitzgerald
Vol $35k
Wisconsin’s 1st District House Seat: Who Will Win?
Leading:
49.5%
Mitchell Berman
Vol $2.7k
Wisconsin’s 8th District House Race: Who Will Win
Leading:
87.5%
Tony Wied
Vol $6.5k
Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District House Race 2026
Leading:
94%
Michael Alfonso
Vol $3.7k