Tennessee’s 2nd Congressional District House Race Winner
Tennessee’s 2nd Congressional District, anchored by Knoxville and East Tennessee, holds its 2026 House election to fill the seat in Congress. The district has long leaned heavily Republican, making the general election largely a formality in most recent cycles. Voters will choose a representative to serve a two-year term starting in January 2027.
Why Markets Are Watching
Control of the U.S. House hinges on the cumulative results of races like this one, even in districts considered safe for one party. A reliably Republican seat helps set the baseline majority heading into the next Congress. Any unexpected shift here would signal broader national trends affecting competitive districts elsewhere.
How Prediction Markets Frame the Race
This market isolates a single question: which party, or specific candidate, ultimately wins the TN-02 seat. Separate contracts let traders express views on individual contenders as well as the overall partisan outcome. Because the district’s partisan lean is well established, the contract effectively measures confidence in continuity versus the likelihood of a rare upset.
Related terms
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Democratic Party (United States) -
Republican Party (United States) -
United States House of Representatives -
Tennessee -
Knoxville, Tennessee -
East Tennessee -
Tim Burchett
Total Volume
$65k
Kalshi $5.3k · Polymarket $59.7k
Leading Market
Tim Burchett
Kalshi 97% · Polymarket 97%
Tim Burchett Volume
$44.8k
Kalshi $1.2k · Polymarket $43.6k
Calculate Your Potential Return
- Kalshi(opens in a new tab) 7.0% fee
- Polymarket(opens in a new tab) 5.0% fee
| Market | Kalshi Yes | Kalshi Fee | Kalshi Payout | Polymarket Yes | Polymarket Fee | Polymarket Payout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim BurchettRepublican Party | 96.5¢ | 7.0% | , trade Tim Burchett on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 97.0¢ | 5% | , trade Tim Burchett on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
| Michaela BarnettDemocratic Party | 4.3¢ | 7.0% | , trade Michaela Barnett on Kalshi (opens in a new tab) | 5.0¢ | 5% | , trade Michaela Barnett on Polymarket (opens in a new tab) |
* Estimates if candidate wins. Actual returns may vary.
All Markets
| Market | Total Volume | Kalshi(opens in a new tab) | Polymarket(opens in a new tab) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim BurchettRepublican Party | $44,834.55 | ||
| Michaela BarnettDemocratic Party | $20,208.02 |